Kentucky/Oregon Thread

A few souls may be seeing hope in the early numbers out of Kentucky, but the vast majority of them are coming out of Jefferson County, which is Louisville, perhaps Obama's only stronghold in the state. So I fully expect the news nets to call the state for Clinton at the top of the hour. However, the fact that Obama's banked 53,000 votes or so already does mean that he may end up doing a bit better than he did in West Virginia.

Oregon does look to already be a victory because the polls aren't measuring likely voters. Since Oregon votes by mail, they're measuring people who have by and large already voted.

...And Clinton is indeed the projected winner. By a "significant margin," well over 20 points. Somehow I think that Clinton's voters didn't turn out in quite the numbers everyone thinks, yet clearly she's going to win.

...This doesn't really belong in the election thread, but I wanted to note that Sen. Robert Byrd endorsed Obama the other day. Robert Byrd, who as our Republican friends never tire of mentioning, was in the KKK, who probably never thought in his life he would have the opportunity to absolve himself of such an error in judgment by endorsing a biracial man for President of the United States. It's a touching tribute to just how different this primary season has been.

But, some of it has been depressingly the same, as we see in the Kentucky results, and county after county in the Hill country going 90-8 for Clinton over Obama. The Appalachia Problem, as well as The Race Chasm, has been a powerful predictor of where we're at in this race. I know Obama largely didn't contest West Virginia or Kentucky, but there's clearly a wall with Appalachian voters that Obama cannot breach. Is that loyalty to Clinton, purely race, or something in between? Not sure.

...Obama's speech here. I didn't see or hear it. I did hear Clinton's speech in the car. Both paid tribute to Ted Kennedy. Obama has been immediately called as the winner in Oregon based on exit polling. So a split decision tonight, as expected. And Oregon being a state Democrats have to win in November, Clinton immediately dropped out upon losing the primary didn't mention it.

A word on the "we won the popular vote" flim-flammery. Both sides have paid well for a cadre of professional liars. These liars are the guys in debate class who were as good defending one side of the argument as they were defending the other. They are expert at manipulating the data to fit the narrative they have to push. Frankly this happens in every political campaign. People are more aware of it nowadays, which is why the Clinton campaign's aggressiveness at pushing these arbitrary markers ends up looking a little less than salutary.

Still, I'm with Obama:

The road here has been long, and that is partly because we’ve traveled it with one of the most formidable candidates to ever run for this office. In her thirty-five years of public service, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has never given up on her fight for the American people, and tonight I congratulate her on her victory in Kentucky. We have had our disagreements during this campaign, but we all admire her courage, her commitment and her perseverance. No matter how this primary ends, Senator Clinton has shattered myths and broken barriers and changed the America in which my daughters and yours will come of age.

Anyone else running on her record and with her stature would actually have been out of this race a long time ago, probably before March. Clinton really has adapted to fit the changing dynamic of the race, and capitalized on Obama's tough April by reinventing herself as a populist fighter when she initially ran as an inevitable establishment Democrat. She may have adapted too late, but it's a testament to her political skills.

Waiting on raw numbers. Clinton won by about 250K votes in Kentucky, but more votes are expected to be cast in Oregon - perhaps over a million. If the victory is significant enough, tonight will be a tie in both the popular vote and the delegate count. And every primary will be done except for Montana and South Dakota and Puerto Rico.

Boy

Geoff Davis (R-KY) tips off the GOP attack plan for the fall.

During his talk at Saturday's Fourth District Lincoln/Reagan Day Dinner in Boone County Davis, a Hebron Republican seeking re-election, made the following comment when questioning the national security credentials and experience of Obama, an African-American from Illinois:

"I'm going to tell you something: That boy's finger does not need to be on the button," Davis said. "He could not make a decision in that simulation that related to a nuclear threat to this country."

Davis is taking criticism because referring to an African-American as a "boy" is considered by many as racist and pejorative.

Davis had to immediately apologize, but of course, that doesn't matter. It's "out there."

I choose not to be afraid. And that doesn't mean I'm not sensitive to the efficacy of attack ads, but I choose not to cower from them and pretend to be something other than a proud Democrat; I choose to take them on directly and firmly and without fear. I think Obama feels the same way.

They Asked For It

Mitch McConnell, Lead Obstructor for the Republicans in the Senate, caught a break this morning when his top two potential rivals for his seat next November, State Auditor Crit Luallen and Attorney General Greg Stumbo, appeared to decline to compete in the Senate race. Emboldened, apparently, by this good fortune, McConnell decided to tar every American soldier who ever served in combat by claiming that those who volunteer for the military... deserve to die? Get what's coming to them? Ought to be thankful to be sent into necessary wars with a target on their backs and no proper body armor? What the hell is the point he's trying to make here?

“Unfortunately, most of our friends on the other isle are having a hard time admitting things are getting better; some days I almost think the critics of this war don't want us to win. Nobody is happy about losing lives but remember these are not draftees, these are full-time professional soldiers."

Andrew Horne, a Kentucky Iraq war vet who may yet challenge McConnell for the Senate seat, responded over at VetVoice:

"I would say that Mitch McConnell owes every member of our service and the families of the fallen an apology, but no apology from him can take back the venom he has spewed at our troops, this time. For anyone to believe that casualties of war are somehow more acceptable because they were not draftees is disgusting. For the Republican leader in the United States Senate to say that is beyond repugnant."

"This is just Mitch McConnell once again demonstrating that he has no idea of - and has no interest in learning - what our troops have sacrificed. Whether it is filibustering a bill that would give proper time at home for our overextended troops, or voting against increased funds to take care of veterans who have come home, Mitch McConnell has shown nothing more than complete ignorance about our military and those who serve our nation in it."

"To my fellow service members and veterans, let me apologize on behalf of Kentucky for Senator McConnell's putrid comments. He most certainly does not represent our views, nor the high regard in which we hold you and your families."

We learned this week that military families, who've been burdened with practically the entire cost of this war, favor Democrats in large numbers. Perhaps the insensitivity of "leaders" like Mitch McConnell, who regards men and women in uniform as nothing more than meat to be ground into sausage, is the reason why.

Big Night For Southern Dems

Steve Beshear took 58% of the vote to take the governor's mansion with ease, the what is supposedly the solid Republican South. Ernie Fletcher is a goner. Remember, this is the guy who tried to save his political career by running ANTIGAY ads. That's how out of touch the GOP is in this day and age.

Now, I remember a TON of stories about Bobby Jindal ushering in a new era in Louisiana, how this presaged hope for Republicans, disregarding the fact that Hurricane Katrina drained the state of Democrats, if you'll pardon the pun. I wonder if we'll hear about this from the national media poohbahs?

In addition, Virginia Democrats captured the state Senate and made major gains in the House of Delegates. How many of these elections have to happen before the DC establishment to realize that there a fundamental shift happening in this country, and not just in the coastal areas, but in the South as well? And that it all has to do with a historically unpopular President, and therefore national Democrats needn't be afraid of Republicans calling them terrorist-lovers or immigrant-coddlers?

UPDATE: In addition, Utah rejected a private school voucher proposal written by the Republican Party. That's right, the GOP couldn't get a win on an issue of wingnut faith in UTAH.

The Gay Card To Teh Rescue!

Ernie Fletcher is going to lose his governor's seat in Kentucky today. He's a hopelessly corrupt Republican, and Steve Beshear is a decent Democrat. The country is changing and they will not stand for a governor who has to pardon most of his top staff to keep them out of jail.

In attempting to save the election, Fletcher is returning to the last refuge of a scoundrel - calling Beshear a queer lover.

Someone in Kentucky has resorted to an almost certainly illegal campaign tactic in today's election for governor. A new robocall has gone out purporting to be from Fairness.org — the Web site of the Fairness Campaign, an actual gay rights organization in Kentucky — speaking with pride about the strong support of "the homosexual lobby" for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Steve Beshear.

"Beshear is receiving major support from out-of-state gay activists and has publicly committed to same-gender relationships," the man on the call says.

The Fairness Campaign has denied any part in the calls, and is urging people who have received the calls to report it to the authorities.

That is all they've got left. Republicans who have proven that they can't govern can only demagogue on hate. It's not going to work today. This is not only illegal, it's craven.

Bright Spot In Kentucky

Despite the doom and gloom yesterday over the Iraq cave, yesterday was a pretty good day for Democrats electorally. Kentucky held their Gubernatorial primary, and there was good news on both ends. On the Republican side, Gov. Ernie Fletcher held off a challenge from former Rep. Anne Northup. This is great news because Fletcher is as corrupt as they come, having personally pardoned scores of members of his own staff after they were all indicted in various scandals. On the Democratic side, former Lt. Governor Steve Beshear bested DLC Lieber-Dem Bruce Lunsford, who endorsed both Ernie Fletcher and Mitch McConnell in the best. Beshear took it by 20 points, getting over the needed 40% threshold to avoid a runoff.

There's much more on this race at the Bluegrass Report. Beshear is a strong challenger, and will come out of the primary as the favorite to pull off yet another Democratic pickup.