3 Electoral Votes Down?

I'm going to hold off on posting heavily about polling while we're still in the RNC bounce stage. It was unique that the Democratic convention happened so close to the Republican one (a mistake for the Dems, although I'm not sure how much control they had over it), and historically these bounces go down. The state polls look relatively the same, outside of a few in the South, which could be outliers or suggestions that this is where the Palin pick is playing best, among members of the conservative tribe.

However, there is a very significant development in the Presidential race up in Montana. If Ron Paul is on the ballot I don't think John McCain can win that state. Seriously. That's 5% he can't afford to lose up there. Paul BEAT McCain in the Republican caucuses in this state.

U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, runner-up in Montana’s Republican presidential caucus last winter, will appear on Montana’s November ballot as the presidential nominee of the Constitution Party of Montana, it announced Monday.

Joining Paul on Montana’s presidential ballot are: Bob Barr, Libertarian Party; John McCain, Republican Party; Ralph Nader, independent; and Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Secretary of State Brad Johnson said.

David Hart of Kalispell, who ran Paul’s campaign in Montana, predicted that Paul’s candidacy would hurt the other four candidates on the state’s presidential ballot, particularly McCain.

“Here in Montana, I think it’s pretty much sealed the deal that McCain will not win Montana,” Hart said. “If he doesn’t win, Ron Paul will probably be blamed for it. They only need to look in the mirror and blame themselves for nominating someone who doesn’t represent true Republican values and causes like Paul.”

That sounds like a guy who is going to actually get out the vote for Paul in addition to just getting him on the ballot, if only to send a message. A constitutionalist and libertarian like Paul is likely to play very well in Montana.

In addition, Paul has a news conference scheduled for tomorrow in Washington about his "intentions for the fall." I have no idea what that's all about, but I certainly don't think it's an endorsement of McCain.

This is actually pretty big news. Unsurprisingly, it's been covered almost nowhere.