Fighting Baucus And Grassley From Within

The only way you can really get to a Max Baucus or a Charles Grassley is by threatening their job security. In particular, Grassley is up for re-election next year, in a state that went for Barack Obama by a fairly hefty margin. If I didn't know better, I'd say that Rep. Bruce Braley, chair of the Populist Caucus in the House, is setting himself up for a challenge to him.

Grassley used scare tactics last week at a town hall meeting in Iowa to convince voters that optional coverage for end-of-life counseling in the House health care reform bill would force people to "pull the plug on grandma" (even though he supported a nearly identical end-of-life counseling provision in a 2003). Earlier this week, Grassley told reporters that even if a health care plan included the changes he's been pushing for, he likely wouldn't support it if it didn't attract the support of more than a few of his GOP colleagues. Today, the Washington Post reported that Senator Grassley has begun calling for "scaled back" health care reform.

For someone who claims he wants to help forge a bipartisan health care plan, Senator Grassley sure isn't acting very bipartisan. In fact, he's been behaving like someone who wants to see meaningful health care reform defeated [...]

Senator Grassley is in a stronger position than just about anyone to bring Republicans on board with Democrats to achieve the health care reform we need. But when he uses the same rhetoric as pundits advising Republicans to "just kill it" and a Republican Senator who wants to make health care President Obama's "Waterloo," why would the President or Senator Baucus think he is their ally in achieving meaningful health care reform?

Sadly, it appears that Senator Grassley has decided to put his party before what's best for the people of this country.

The Des Moines Register has already floated the rumor about a "mystery" Democratic candidate willing to take on Grassley. Braley has certainly become more vocal in his criticisms. And the fact that Grassley immediately released a statement attacking Braley shows that he is sensitive to this rumor. I don't know if an announced challenge would put Grassley on the defensive, but it sure couldn't hurt.

As for Baucus, he doesn't come back up for re-election until 2014. But Montanans are split on his actions on health care to this point. 42% approve and 44% disapprove. Baucus has previously been fairly popular in the state, now a public option is more popular than he is, and if he helps to kill a health care reform bill, his numbers will plummet. The Montana Democratic Party is trying to cover for Baucus by sending around the Paul Begala article telling Democrats to accept half a loaf, but based on the polling, that's not working.

I'm not certain either of these two arrogant members of the House of Lords are reachable, but the road to reaching them runs through their home states.

Prediction Thread

Tomorrow is going to be an epic day in American politics. And it just shouldn't go by without me turning it into a statistical affair and giving my numbers for what's going to happen. I should remind everyone that I got 2006 almost exactly right, so I'm coming from a place of slightly-less-than-no credibility.

OK, here goes.

Obama wins 52.4%-45.8%
He takes 356 electoral votes, winning the Kerry states plus IA, NM, CO, NV, OH, FL, VA, NC, and my wild-card, MT. I think that Ron Paul's entry on the ballot is going to have a real effect. Obama comes very close and could well flip MO, IN, ND and GA as well.

These aren't that out on a limb, outside of Montana it reflects the consensus of most electoral forecasters (yes, I do check the polls obsessively). Heck, even Karl Rove is looking at 338 EVs for Obama.

As for the House and Senate:
A net of 28 House seats for the Dems. And I think I may be low-balling it, though there are a few seats that'll flip the other way (Tim Mahoney and Nick Lampson are done, and Paul Kanjorski is looking like he'll lose to xenophobe Lou Barletta). I'll have my California picks tomorrow - I think we'll have some of the surprises of the night.
A net of 8 Senate pickups. The key races are Minnesota and Georgia, as Kay Hagan appears to have put away Liddy Dole. Minnesota is a true toss-up, and Georgia appears headed to a run-off.

I think it's going to be a great night for America.

Montana, Now?

The GOP is wasting $400,000 trying to shore up McCain in Montana, oblivious to the fact that if they have to worry about Montana, they are sunk anyway, so they might as well put the money where it's needed to actually win.

That's like Politics 101.

What happened to the institutional knowledge of the Republican Party? Is it now just an Army of Palins?

You Might Be Losing The Presidential Election If...

...you're a Republican and you're losing in Montana.

(I knew the Ron Paul factor - he's on the Presidential ballot here - would be huge, as big as Perot's presence in Montana in 1992. Perot got something close to 20% of the vote there, and Clinton ended up winning. This is a replay.)

...your own Senate campaign committee is running ads that assume you will lose.

...even Chuck Todd figures out that you and your running mate look very uncomfortable together.

3 Electoral Votes Down?

I'm going to hold off on posting heavily about polling while we're still in the RNC bounce stage. It was unique that the Democratic convention happened so close to the Republican one (a mistake for the Dems, although I'm not sure how much control they had over it), and historically these bounces go down. The state polls look relatively the same, outside of a few in the South, which could be outliers or suggestions that this is where the Palin pick is playing best, among members of the conservative tribe.

However, there is a very significant development in the Presidential race up in Montana. If Ron Paul is on the ballot I don't think John McCain can win that state. Seriously. That's 5% he can't afford to lose up there. Paul BEAT McCain in the Republican caucuses in this state.

U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, runner-up in Montana’s Republican presidential caucus last winter, will appear on Montana’s November ballot as the presidential nominee of the Constitution Party of Montana, it announced Monday.

Joining Paul on Montana’s presidential ballot are: Bob Barr, Libertarian Party; John McCain, Republican Party; Ralph Nader, independent; and Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Secretary of State Brad Johnson said.

David Hart of Kalispell, who ran Paul’s campaign in Montana, predicted that Paul’s candidacy would hurt the other four candidates on the state’s presidential ballot, particularly McCain.

“Here in Montana, I think it’s pretty much sealed the deal that McCain will not win Montana,” Hart said. “If he doesn’t win, Ron Paul will probably be blamed for it. They only need to look in the mirror and blame themselves for nominating someone who doesn’t represent true Republican values and causes like Paul.”

That sounds like a guy who is going to actually get out the vote for Paul in addition to just getting him on the ballot, if only to send a message. A constitutionalist and libertarian like Paul is likely to play very well in Montana.

In addition, Paul has a news conference scheduled for tomorrow in Washington about his "intentions for the fall." I have no idea what that's all about, but I certainly don't think it's an endorsement of McCain.

This is actually pretty big news. Unsurprisingly, it's been covered almost nowhere.

Go West

The announcement today that Barack Obama will deliver his convention acceptance speech to a cheering crowd of 75,000 in Denver's Invesco Field is a telegraph that the Democratic nominee will concentrate a great deal of resources toward winning the West. There are increasing signs that the Rocky Mountain states are more winnable for a Democrat this year than in the recent past.

Superior voter mobilization is playing a role. Nevada's latest registration numbers show a five percent increase among Democrats over Republicans, a difference of 55,000 voters out of 1,000,000. In 2004, Republicans led in voter registration by one percent, and George Bush won the state by a touch more than that.

So are issues particular to the West. One of them is land use. When the Bush Administration is making closed-door deals to hand over hundreds of thousands of acres of forest to developers in the middle of Montana, residents are going to be angry, and take out those frustrations on the Republican Party. This subdivisioning of America simply won't stand among those Westerners who value open spaces and support land conservation.

Another major issue in the West concerns its natural libertarian streak. The quintessential Western Democratic candidate is a civil libertarian and a conservationist, who wants the rights of his citizens protected. Anchorage, AK mayor Mark Begich, running for the US Senate against Ted "Series of Tubes" Stevens, is an example of this kind of Democrat, and his plan to protect citizens' rights looks like a political winner:

The Begich plan includes:

Standing Up Against Government Interference - including warrantless wiretapping, the assault on habeas corpus, the pursuit of Real ID cards, and retroactive immunity for telecommunications companies that illegally helped the federal government spy on Americans.

No Surveillance on Law-Abiding Americans – Begich opposes efforts since 9/11 to take advantage of public fears, bypassing the courts and Congress to eavesdrop on Americans.

Repeal the Patriot Act – Begich believes national security resources should be built on human intelligence and Special Forces that will identify and respond to real threats of terrorism, not monitoring what books Americans read.

Restore Habeas Corpus – Begich called the Military Commissions Act, passed in 2006, the lowest point in our country’s response to the threat of terrorism. The Act suspends habeas corpus for millions of Americans, and that right needs to be restored.

There are as many electoral votes in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada as there are in Ohio. New Mexico is actually the ultimate swing state, having chosen the winner in 22 out of its 24 Presidential elections (and really 23, since it narrowly went for Gore). The opportunities in the West, including in places like Montana and Alaska, are very great, and Sen. Obama is showing a desire to press those advantages.

Noted With Little Comment

Barack Obama is polling ahead in Montana.

The GOP is buying ad time for John McCain in Virginia.

Bush went down to a fundraiser for Roger Wicker, an endangered incumbent Senator from Mississippi.

We're looking at the changing of the map.