Looking Good, But Still Some Storm Clouds

With 8 days to go, the news out of the polling world is stable and solid. Obama leads measurably in enough states to win the election, and even the toss-up states are moving his way. The election is being played out on red state turf, and with New Mexico and Iowa looking great, and Colorado and Virginia close to it, there is simply a lot to be excited about if you're the Obama campaign. Though the traditional media wants to inflate their ratings by continuing to call this a close race, they're deluding themselves.

Worried about "the tightening?"

Well, Obama's national lead has been stable at 7% for a month now. The national campaign is not tightening, and we are just seeing statistical noise.

Even if the campaign were tightening, Obama would still have a comfortable national lead. According to polling conducted over the weekend during the tracking poll "tightening," Obama reaches 264 electoral votes in states where he leads by 9.5% or more, passes 277 in Virginia where he leads by 8.0%, and hits 286 in states where he leads by 7.3% or more. So, he is actually doing even better in the Electoral College, where 270 votes are needed to win, than he is doing in national polls where he leads by 7%.

However, don't underestimate the ability of the powers that be, the gatekeepers, to desperately try to keep a hold on power, on a number of fronts, outside the normal electoral process. We have retailers telling their managers that there will be negative consequences to a Democratic victory. They are particularly frightened about the Employee Free Choice Act, which would make it easier for workers at a company to unionize. This is extra-legal, to indoctrinate your own employees politically, and it shows why EFCA is needed, actually, because this type of union-busting happens during a "free" election in the workplace. But it's not going to stop.

Neither are the efforts of committed Republicans to game the system in order to save the election:

"5,000 Coloradans whose voter status is in limbo because of [a] controversial check box...The registration form asks for a driver's license or state ID number. If applicants don't have that, they're supposed to check a box and then put down at least the last four digits of their Social Security numbers. But thousands of people didn't check the box. According to a policy adopted last year by Secretary of State Mike Coffman, these applications are supposed to be listed as incomplete...National and local voting-rights organizations criticize Coffman's policy, saying it violates other federal laws. They say Coffman is unfairly putting up barriers for people who are eligible to vote and want him to change his policy."

The check box is "controversial" because you are asked to check it on the form if you don't "have" a driver's license or ID card [...] So, here's the thing - what's the definition of "have?" I may have one at my house or in my car, but not with me at the very moment I am filling out the registration form. In that case, it would be logical - and, in fact, honest - for me to not check that box, while also putting down the last four digits of my social security number as my selected method of verifying my registration. Alternately, for whatever reason (privacy, etc.), I may simply feel more comfortable listing the last 4 digits of my social security number, rather than my entire driver's license number. So therefore, I might have listed my social security number and not checked the box.

And yet, if you made any of those logical choices - if you gave all the social security information required by law, but simply didn't check the box - Coffman is attempting to use that choice to potentially invalidate your registration and prevent you from voting.

And this kind of suppression is not just happening at the state level, but at the federal level as well, as George Bush has ordered the Justice Department to step into the Ohio voter registration controversy, even though the Supreme Court has ruled that the Secretary of State need not verify hundreds of thousands of registration forms against federal documents and throw out even those which have a typo on either side.

6 million or so people are going to go to the polls on Election Day and be told that they can't vote. There may be legitimate reasons for that, like lack of registration, or completely illegitimate ones, like them being purged from the rolls. But they won't be voting. And that is likely to hurt the Democrats.

I'm still more worried about November 5 than November 4. But you should educate yourself on the potential problems with your vote and be prepared to fight for it. The Election Protection wiki is a good source of information, and there's also 866-OUR-VOTE, a number you can call if you have problems on Election Day.

Small-Ball and Scrounging

Looks like the McCain campaign is going after Maine-02, while the Obama campaign is looking to flip Nebraska-02. Those are the only states that split electoral votes.

I'm pretty sure they never have split them, so the chances of this are remote. What I'm more interested in is the fact that, with Michigan off the table, McCain's team appears to have conceded Colorado, as I suspected yesterday:

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) now must win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota in order to get enough electoral votes to win the presidency, his campaign says.

Those were considered swing states in 2000 and 2004, but George W. Bush lost them both times.

"Our ability to pick off one of those three states is where our fortunes are largely held," a McCain official said. "These are states where Barack Obama is on the defense."

McCain doesn't need to win any of these as long as he holds the Bush states, in theory. But Iowa and New Mexico are trending away from him, and if he thinks that he has to win one of the above states, they must feel that Colorado and/or Nevada is lost, too.

Wow.

Meanwhile McCain's campaign has gone 100% negative.

Denver Impressions

Well, yesterday was uneventful for me. Just getting in and getting my bearings around the city. The first thing I saw was a parade of four pickup trucks full of cops riding toward downtown.

Later, a friend of ours took us down by the Platte River to a spot near the enormous REI store, where fire spinners congregate every Sunday night. Afterwards, we stopped in on some vegetarian restaurant holding a poetry slam, and Dennis and Elizabeth Kucinich were in there having dinner. While most people in from out of town were eating their corporate-funded cocktail weenies, I stumbled upon some actual leftists for a change.

While George Bush won Colorado by 4 points in 2004, John Kerry took Denver by 40. This city grows more and more Democratic with each passing year, and raising turnout here - and keeping them in the Democratic fold - would be a key to victory in the state, I gather.

This morning there's a breakfast for the California delegation, and as a member of the press, I'm going but certainly not getting any breakfast. I believe Hillary Clinton will be there, and I've seen over the last couple days the McCain campaign try to drive a wedge between her supporters and Sen. Obama, with multiple ads trying to stir up some resentment. It doesn't have to make sense in the politics of spite. They even found a PUMA for today's offering:



Clinton released a statement after the first ad, and it's not entirely fair that she'll have to do such heavy lifting in her speech tomorrow night, but it will certainly be closely watched.

That's all I've got. Digby's panel is at 11 AM MT, I'm goign to try and make it so maybe I'll do a wee bit of liveblogging.

...Oh yeah, the big rumor is that Ted Kennedy will be making a surprise appearance. The crowd should go crazy.

People vs. The Powerful: Is It Enough?

From a messaging standpoint, since I've been talking a lot about field, I think Barack Obama's going to come through the Democratic convention as a full-throated populist, much like Al Gore did in 2000. That was when Gore's numbers shot up, and Obama's advisors clearly see that as the antidote to their recent difficulties. They're already doing it:

Democrat Barack Obama pledged Wednesday to create millions of union jobs in alternative energy and to end tax breaks for companies that move jobs overseas, using tough new populist language to persuade voters that he, not rival John McCain, is best positioned to lift the limping U.S. economy [...]

With Mark Warner, the former Virginia governor now running for Senate, at his side, Obama said it was wrong that the Iraqi government has been sitting on billions of dollars in oil revenue while the U.S. spends billions to rebuild the war-torn country.

"We should be using some of that money to rebuild Virginia, laying roads, building broadband lines and putting people back to work," Obama said.

As for tax breaks to companies taking jobs overseas, Obama said: "We sure as heck don't have to give them incentives to move. ... We should give companies tax breaks that are right here."

Obama made an appeal for votes that sounded much like the closing pitch Clinton would offer in similar settings.

"If you give me that opportunity, if you give me that chance, I will fight for you every single day," he pledged. "I'll wake up every day in that White House thinking about those people in Martinsville."

Let the Hillary for VP speculation begin...

This is a very obvious bet, which may work as well as it did for Gore in 2000. Obama is already doing this off the radar with ads about the economy in battleground states that show McCain as out of touch.

In Philadelphia; East Lansing, Mich.; Green Bay, Wis.; and at least five other major cities, Mr. Obama is heavily showing an advertisement contrasting a statement by Mr. McCain that “we have had a pretty good, prosperous time with low unemployment,” with appearances by people making statements like, “The prices of gas are up; the prices of milk are up.”

Mr. McCain’s statement was from a debate in January, before the economy took several turns for the worse, and did not include the senator’s acknowledgment of “a rough patch.” Mr. McCain has since run an advertisement going so far as to say, “We’re worse off than we were four years ago.”

In Des Moines; Tampa, Fla.; Paducah, Ky., and at least 10 other cities, Mr. Obama is running a spot for a mock book, “Economics” by John McCain: “Support George Bush 95 percent of the time; keep spending $10 billion a month for the war in Iraq.”

On Sunday alone, Mr. Obama’s campaign spent nearly $400,000 to run those two spots more than 600 times, accounting for roughly two thirds of the commercials he ran that day, according to the Campaign Media Analysis Group.

I'm sure we'll see a local ad in Colorado, too, about McCain's historic mistake over calling for a renegotiation of the Colorado River water compact, which to Coloradans means "we're coming to steal your water."

It's proven to work, and it's a Democratic year, and nobody really likes the direction of the country, either. However, McCain has crawled back into this race in two ways - he benefited from the Georgia crisis by acting all Presidential-like when Obama was on vacation, and he made a searing set of character attacks that he has largely been allowed to get away with. Obama has for the most part used "shame on you" tactics to criticize these attacks, always backed up with how he "honors McCain's service but not his policies or his politics," as he said today.

Well, Sen. Obama, McCain doesn't honor anything about you. He hates you and he wants his supporters to hate you, too. He can't win on ideas so he'll win on spite, scorn, the anger the Orthogonians feel that the snooty liberal elites are always looking down on them. It's astonishing that this is working after eight years of George Bush, but let's face facts.

Why do they work? Because we don't fight back. The appropriate response to someone questioning your patriotism isn't to say "you're wrong" or "I object!" The appropriate response is to punch the guy in the face, rhetorically or otherwise. Wesley Clark didn't even question John McCain's patriotism - he simply questioned McCain's qualifications for the presidency. McCain responded by punching Wesley Clark in the face, then dragged him around tied to the back of a truck for a week for good measure (and no one in the party came to Clark's defense, big surprise there). McCain didn't just say "stop it," McCain made sure that neither Clark nor anyone else would dare question his commander in chief credentials ever again.

What has our side done to bloody McCain for questioning our patriotism? What have we ever done to fight back when the Republicans question our patriotism, be it in the Congress or at the ballot box? How many times do we have to write about this Achilles Heel before Dems realize it ain't going away? We deal with this issue every election, and on every issue, because Democrats either don't have the balls to fight back, or they don't have the brains. Either way, it's pathetic, and make us looks weak (and unpatriotic). And it's happening again. And again. And again.

Meanwhile, the media covers for McCain by saying he never really wanted to run a divisive, cynical, spite-filled campaign, but he was forced into it. They're not going to help Obama out of this mess, and in fact they'll actively work against him. A lot of this "Obama doesn't fight back" stuff is built into standard media narrative. He actually is, in some ways, but the attacks from the Republican side are amplified.

Still, Obama isn't coming close to doing this (yes, I'm citing Cato), and he has defunded the outside groups who might do it:

At the “Civil Forum” at Saddleback Church in Orange County, California this weekend, Senator John McCain (R-AZ) repeated a favorite line of his about Osama bin Laden:

If I have to follow him to the gates of hell, I will get Osama bin Laden and bring him to justice. . . . No one should be allowed to take thousands of American, innocent American lives. Of course evil must be defeated . . . we are facing the transcendent challenge of the 21st century–radical Islamic extremists.

What a gift to the recruiting efforts of Al Qaeda! - to have an American presidential candidate declare himself a follower of Osama bin Laden. According to McCain, Bin Laden is so powerful that he poses a “transcendent” challenge to John McCain’s United States.

In his cogent, well-supported, and readable article, “What Terrorists Really Want,” Max Abrahms at UCLA argues that terrorists “are rational people who use terrorism primarily to develop strong affective ties with fellow terrorists.” Think of Al Qaeda as a gang that disaffected youth might join - something powerful to belong to that gives their lives meaning.

McCain’s “gates of hell” talk is leadership malpractice, and he should stop using it immediately. Calling the threat of terrorism “transcendent” is equal parts incoherent and false. Terrorism stands no chance of defeating the United States or the West unless we ourselves collapse the society. Speaking this way about terrorism thrills our terrorist enemies and draws recruits and support to them. Silence would be much better, presidential campaign or no.

Obviously the economy is a top issue, so going full-bore on that makes some sense. And I still believe in the power of the ground game, and I think that after the conventions this whole thing might recalibrate. But I think Steve Schmidt is getting the better of this Socratic dialogue, from where I'm standing. Obama is light-years ahead on organization and technology, but on message he's still pulling off the shelf the old Democratic tropes of years past. The Gore one was successful - but you have to also fight back on the character nonsense.

Go West

The announcement today that Barack Obama will deliver his convention acceptance speech to a cheering crowd of 75,000 in Denver's Invesco Field is a telegraph that the Democratic nominee will concentrate a great deal of resources toward winning the West. There are increasing signs that the Rocky Mountain states are more winnable for a Democrat this year than in the recent past.

Superior voter mobilization is playing a role. Nevada's latest registration numbers show a five percent increase among Democrats over Republicans, a difference of 55,000 voters out of 1,000,000. In 2004, Republicans led in voter registration by one percent, and George Bush won the state by a touch more than that.

So are issues particular to the West. One of them is land use. When the Bush Administration is making closed-door deals to hand over hundreds of thousands of acres of forest to developers in the middle of Montana, residents are going to be angry, and take out those frustrations on the Republican Party. This subdivisioning of America simply won't stand among those Westerners who value open spaces and support land conservation.

Another major issue in the West concerns its natural libertarian streak. The quintessential Western Democratic candidate is a civil libertarian and a conservationist, who wants the rights of his citizens protected. Anchorage, AK mayor Mark Begich, running for the US Senate against Ted "Series of Tubes" Stevens, is an example of this kind of Democrat, and his plan to protect citizens' rights looks like a political winner:

The Begich plan includes:

Standing Up Against Government Interference - including warrantless wiretapping, the assault on habeas corpus, the pursuit of Real ID cards, and retroactive immunity for telecommunications companies that illegally helped the federal government spy on Americans.

No Surveillance on Law-Abiding Americans – Begich opposes efforts since 9/11 to take advantage of public fears, bypassing the courts and Congress to eavesdrop on Americans.

Repeal the Patriot Act – Begich believes national security resources should be built on human intelligence and Special Forces that will identify and respond to real threats of terrorism, not monitoring what books Americans read.

Restore Habeas Corpus – Begich called the Military Commissions Act, passed in 2006, the lowest point in our country’s response to the threat of terrorism. The Act suspends habeas corpus for millions of Americans, and that right needs to be restored.

There are as many electoral votes in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada as there are in Ohio. New Mexico is actually the ultimate swing state, having chosen the winner in 22 out of its 24 Presidential elections (and really 23, since it narrowly went for Gore). The opportunities in the West, including in places like Montana and Alaska, are very great, and Sen. Obama is showing a desire to press those advantages.

Going Big In The Mile High City

It's now official - Barack Obama will accept the Democratic nomination at Invesco Field, and everyone's attention will now turn to the weather report for Denver in late August. If I'm reading the press release right, it seems to me that this will be an extended campaign event for the people of Colorado and not something where the doors are flung open to hangers-on and travelers from across the country.

The DNCC announced today that a special block of "Community" credentials will be reserved for Colorado residents for Thursday night's program at INVESCO Field. Details about how to sign up and receive a "Community Credential" for the last night of the Convention will be released in the coming weeks.

"This is the type of Convention people will want to experience together with family, friends and neighbors, and we hope this move enables thousands of Americans to come together, experience history and put Senator Obama on the path to victory in November," Daughtry added.

That's a good use of this speech. Colorado is an important swing state, and inviting state residents instead of just a larger pool of Democratic insiders makes a lot of sense.

You can get a golden ticket from the Obama campaign, however:

It's going to be an amazing event, and Barack would like you to join him. Free tickets will become available as the date approaches, but we've reserved a special place for a few of the people who brought us this far and who continue to drive this campaign.

If you make a donation of $5 or more between now and midnight on July 31st, you could be one of 10 supporters chosen to fly to Denver and spend two days and nights at the convention, meet Barack backstage, and watch his acceptance speech in person. Each of the ten supporters who are selected will be able to bring one guest to join them.

Make a donation now and you could have a front row seat to history.

As for the conservative carping that this is some kind of groupthink mass rally, if your guy could draw more than a few hundred you'd hold an event like this too.

More Recruitment Troubles

Recruitment is reallt a harbinger for the relative success or failure of a party. If nobody wants to run for your seat, it's probably because they know they'd lose with your party next to their name. Such it is for the trashed brand of the GOP.

Two congressional seats in Colorado that the Democrats captured in recent elections would almost certainly be high up on GOP strategists' target lists for the 2008 House elections -- if the overall political environment were more promising for the Republican Party.

But at a point in the fall of 2007 when the parties have candidates in place for most of the contests expected to be competitive a year from now, the Republicans have yet to recruit candidates to oppose Democratic incumbents John Salazar in Colorado's 3rd District and Ed Perlmutter in the 7th.

The slow start for the challenging party in these districts is noteworthy given that Republicans are statistically competitive in both. The GOP held the 3rd District seat as recently as 2004 and only turned over the 7th to the Democrats last year [...]

Dick Wadhams, the Colorado Republican Party chairman, did not attempt to put on overly optimistic spin on his party's prospects in the 3rd and 7th districts. He said he would like to have candidates already, and does not know what will emerge in either district. He attributed the absence of Republican candidates to the difficulty of facing an incumbent.

What I think is hilarious about that is that Dick Wadhams was George Allen's campaign manager and last year was touted as being the next Karl Rove. Now he can't find any Republican in the whole state of Colorado to run for Congress. How the mighty have fallen...

By contrast, 342 House seats have Democratic challengers as of October 1. So that means there are only 93 to go with months left before the deadline. Last year Democrats contested in 425 seats; they could beat that next year. It's all part of the 50 state strategy.

UPDATE: And now a rumor that Pete Domenici will retire from the Senate. That immediately puts the swing state of New Mexico in play.