Prediction Thread

Tomorrow is going to be an epic day in American politics. And it just shouldn't go by without me turning it into a statistical affair and giving my numbers for what's going to happen. I should remind everyone that I got 2006 almost exactly right, so I'm coming from a place of slightly-less-than-no credibility.

OK, here goes.

Obama wins 52.4%-45.8%
He takes 356 electoral votes, winning the Kerry states plus IA, NM, CO, NV, OH, FL, VA, NC, and my wild-card, MT. I think that Ron Paul's entry on the ballot is going to have a real effect. Obama comes very close and could well flip MO, IN, ND and GA as well.

These aren't that out on a limb, outside of Montana it reflects the consensus of most electoral forecasters (yes, I do check the polls obsessively). Heck, even Karl Rove is looking at 338 EVs for Obama.

As for the House and Senate:
A net of 28 House seats for the Dems. And I think I may be low-balling it, though there are a few seats that'll flip the other way (Tim Mahoney and Nick Lampson are done, and Paul Kanjorski is looking like he'll lose to xenophobe Lou Barletta). I'll have my California picks tomorrow - I think we'll have some of the surprises of the night.
A net of 8 Senate pickups. The key races are Minnesota and Georgia, as Kay Hagan appears to have put away Liddy Dole. Minnesota is a true toss-up, and Georgia appears headed to a run-off.

I think it's going to be a great night for America.