You Might Be Losing The Presidential Election If...

...you're a Republican and you're losing in Montana.

(I knew the Ron Paul factor - he's on the Presidential ballot here - would be huge, as big as Perot's presence in Montana in 1992. Perot got something close to 20% of the vote there, and Clinton ended up winning. This is a replay.)

...your own Senate campaign committee is running ads that assume you will lose.

...even Chuck Todd figures out that you and your running mate look very uncomfortable together.