CA-04: Brown Up In Latest Polling

Before the June primary, Charlie Brown released an internal poll showing him up two points on Tom McClintock. Three months later, the race has not fundamentally changed:

With less than two months to go before the November election, Retired USAF Lt. Col. Charlie Brown has released recent polling showing him leading Southern California politician Tom McClintock 43-41, and widening his lead to nearly double digits when voters were presented with the positive attributes of each candidate.

The survey of 500 likely General Election voters was conducted by the Benensen Strategy Group from August 21st-24th, with a margin of error of +/- 4.38%.

Beyond Brown’s advantage on an initial ballot and following positive contrasts of each candidate, the poll reveals that Brown enjoys a higher net favorability rating than McClintock---despite the fact that McClintock is a better known career politician who has run for Statewide office four times. Brown, who is a career military officer, has also built a 29 point advantage among Independents while capturing nearly one in five Republican voters.

This lead is obviously within the margin of error, and because the district is so Republican, even that 29-point lead among independents brings us to a tie. But the fundamentals for Brown are pretty strong. The right track-wrong track in the district is 23-67. And after the policy positions are added in, Brown's lead balloons to eight points, 50-42.

This is going to be about having the money to get the message out and inform the electorate, and having the ground troops to get out the vote. Turnout will be the major driver of who wins this race. But those who wrote off Charlie Brown when John Doolittle dropped out were very mistaken.

UPDATE: It probably won't help the Republicans that Doolittle associate Kevin Ring was just indicted on corruption charges.