2010 CA House Races Roundup

In 2007-08, I wrote a monthly series of House race roundups here in California, taking a look at the races with the highest potential to change members of Congress. This cycle, there are promises from the national Democrats that they will pay attention to a number of seats in California held by Republicans, and with the statewide races at the top of the ticket looking favorable for Democrats, and Republican registration collapsing throughout the state, in theory we should see some more movement. But many of these elements were true the past two cycles, amounting to little. Because it's a statewide officer election year, I will also do a statewide races roundup at a later time. But for now, let's take a look at the seats most likely to flip in 2010, starting with seats currently held by Democrats, few of which are in play. In addition to those "threatened" by Republicans, I'm including two seats where I've heard rumblings about primary challenges to incumbents.

A word on the notations. PVI refers to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. I've also included the Presidential performance from last year and the particular Congressional performance, where applicable. That information is available for the whole nation at this link.

DEMOCRATIC-HELD SEATS

1. CA-11. Incumbent: Jerry McNerney. PVI: R+1. 2008 General: Obama 54-44. 2008 Congress: McNerney 55-45. I keep seeing this seat on Republican target lists, and the NRCC has dropped robocalls in this district, but I really think the Republicans would be wasting their money. Jerry McNerney actually slightly outperformed Barack Obama in the district in beating the hapless Dean Andal. Andal won't bother with a challenge this time around, and while former Assemblyman Guy Houston has been mentioned as a candidate, I think McNerney has solidified his position and raised enough money to scare off any challengers. SAFE DEM.

2. CA-36. Incumbent: Jane Harman. PVI: D+12. 2008 General: Obama 64-34. 2008 Congress: Harman 69-31. The recent Jane Harman scandals, documented here at Calitics, are really not the only reason she is seen as ripe for a primary challenge: there is an impression in the district that she may retire, with local electeds licking their chops. But if she does run, she will have challengers. Marcy Winograd, who got 38% of the vote in a 2006 primary with Harman, has announced an exploratory committee. And Crooks and Liars blogger John Amato, advancing a story in The Hill, has emerged to say he's considering a run. I talked to John last night and he appears to be serious. Harman has more money than God, and if she truly wants to stay in Congress she won't mind spending it, so this is a long shot. But national progressive groups think that CA-36 can do better than "the best Republican in the Democratic Party." The question is whether local activists will agree; I'm not sure they're quite there yet. SAFE DEM; LIKELY SAFE HARMAN.

3. CA-37. Incumbent: Laura Richardson. PVI: D+26. 2008 General: Obama 80-19. 2008 Congress: Richardson 75-25. If progressives really want to find a bad, vulnerable incumbent, they could look directly to the east of Jane Harman's district. Laura Richardson is a bad lawmaker, who voted for the FISA Amendments Act and other conservative pieces of legislation. What's more, she's an embarrassment to the district, having defaulted on eight houses since 2004 and, reportedly, having used her position in Congress to rescind the sale of her foreclosed home and return it to her. Her monetary acumen extends to her campaign finances. Unlike most incumbents, Richardson is currently $300,000 in debt in her campaign account. This seat is ripe for a young, fresh progressive who has a cleaner record and a better commitment to the district's needs. Nobody has yet emerged, but they should. SAFE DEM; LIKELY SAFE RICHARDSON.

REPUBLICAN-HELD SEATS

1. CA-44. Incumbent: Ken Calvert. PVI: R+6. 2008 General: Obama 49.5-48.6. 2008 Congress: Calvert 51-49. Bill Hedrick shocked the political world by almost beating corrupt Rep. Ken Calvert in a race that fell off of everyone's radar screen. Hedrick just announced that he's running again to finish the job, and I had a chance to chat with him at the CDP Convention in Sacramento. He said that "something is occurring in the Inland Empire" - a combination of the bad economy, demographic shifts and a general distaste for Republicans - that bodes well for his campaign. Hedrick actually won by 5% in the Riverside County portion of the district, which is where more voters reside; but he lost the southern Orange County portion by a healthy margin. The registration figures in the OC part of the district is 90%; in Riverside, it's 50%. Clearly there is potential to increase registration in Riverside and overwhelm Calvert with numbers. Hedrick is a solid antiwar progressive, who supports a modern Pecora Commission to investigate the financial crisis, real refinancing options for people facing foreclosure, robust stimulus to get the economy moving again, and an end to American occupations abroad (he has two sons and two daughters-in-law who, between them, have 10 tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan). Clearly he's going to run on Calvert's support of TARP, which should be interesting. The fear is that Hedrick won't have the funds to compete. He raised only $150,000 total last cycle, and with this race now on the radar screen, he'll need to do better. But Hedrick appears to have a plan for expanding the donor base and using his army of volunteers to make up the gap and beat Ken Calvert in 2010. LEAN REP.

2. CA-03. Incumbent: Dan Lungren. PVI: R+6. 2008 General: Obama 49.3-48.8. 2008 Congress: Lungren 49-44. This is a ripe opportunity in search of a Democratic candidate. In 2008 Bill Durston held Dan Lungren under 50% in a campaign that only got the attention it deserved at the last minute. Demographically speaking, more and more people in the district have registered Democratic in recent years, and if Durston was running again, he would be a top challenger. Unfortunately, Durston is unlikely to run owing to medical issues. Actvisits have tried to entice John Garamendi into abandoning his CA-10 bid and run in this district, where he's actually one of the largest landowners. But that also appears unlikely. It should be noted that there is an announced candidate here, Dr. Amerish Bera. But the hot rumor at the Convention was that Phil Angelides would enter the race, making it a matchup of former statewide gubernatorial candidates. I later heard that rumor was probably bunk. But this should happen! Angelides, who has become an evangelist on energy and climate issues, has a huge donor list he could activate, a progressive policy profile, and actually matured as a candidate (not that you would know it from the media) in 2006. He would bring name ID to this race like nobody else. It's time to draft Phil. LEAN REP.

3. CA-50. Incumbent: Brian Bilbray. PVI: R+3. 2008 General: Obama 51-47. 2008 Congress: Bilbray 50-45. As you can see, Obama took this district by a decent margin, and Bilbray barely hit 50%. Francine Busby, who ran in 2004 and 2006 and then took a cycle off, has returned to run for Congress, and she had a bit of visibility at the Convention. Busby has OK name ID, but this district has always seemed to me to have a ceiling for the Democratic candidate around 45%. I'm happy to be wrong, of course, and hopefully Busby has learned from her past races and is able to break through. Of course, Bilbray is sure to resurrect the “You don't need papers for voting” comment that hurt her in a special election in 2006 (which was twisted by the right, incidentally). LIKELY REP.

4. CA-26. Incumbent: David Dreier. PVI: R+3. 2008 General: Obama 51-47. 2008 Congress: Dreier 53-40. The profile of CA-50 and CA-26 are similar. And in both, a Democratic challenger will take a third run at the incumbent. Russ Warner announced at the Red to Blue dinner that he will run again and build on his efforts against David Dreier in 2008. In a conversation with Warner, he told me about meeting David Dreier a few weeks ago for the first time. Dreier asked him, "Are you running against me again?" Warner replied, "You ran against me, David." Dreier said, "But you lost." Warner: "Oh yeah? You're the one who spent $3 million dollars. Who lost?" Indeed, Warner did succeed in draining Dreier's war chest. Unlike last cycle, Dreier comes into the race with only $700,000 cash on hand. Obviously these seats require two or three-cycle efforts, so it's good to see Warner back. And with national help, who knows? LIKELY REP.

5. CA-48. Incumbent: John Campbell. PVI: R+8. 2008 General: Obama 49.3-48.6. 2008 Congress: Campbell 56-41. John Campbell, who by the way loves him some Atlas Shrugged, is kind of a nonentity in Congress, and apparently doesn't show himself much at home either. Steve Young has done yeoman work building the party in this area in recent years. And now, Beth Krom, an Irvine City Councilwoman, will run to win this seat. Krom is battle-tested - she's had 5 races over the last decade - and she has capably performed in the largest city in the district. Krom actually outraised John Campbell in the first quarter of 2009, and she looks to build on that success. We had a nice interaction with Krom at the CDP Convention, and she led off with a classic line: "This district has the largest cluster of diverse cultures in Orange County, it's 30% Asian and East Indian, and John Campbell has never spoken to somebody who doesn't look like him." She talked about her affordable housing strategies in Irvine, and the green strategies that have won national acclaim. Folks in Orange County told me she's the best candidate they've had to go up against a Republican incumbent in years. Watch this race. LIKELY REP.

6. CA-45. Incumbent: Mary Bono Mack. PVI: R+3. 2008 General: Obama 51-47. 2008 Congress: Bono Mack 58-42. I thought Julie Bornstein really underperformed in this district in 2008, but Mary Bono Mack is kind of a slippery character. She always adds enough votes to her resume to give the appearance of moderation (sometimes by voting for right-wing motions to recommit and then voting for the final bill so it looks like she's a supporter), and given that she's married to a Floridian and lives in Washington, she rarely comes back to the district. This time around, Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet, a gay father of two, has announced a run, and he will focus on "jobs, jobs, jobs." This area shares the profile of a lot of California, with high unemployment and lots of foreclosures. Pougnet's challenge will be to actually get Bono Mack on the record. LIKELY REP.

7. CA-46. Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher. PVI: R+6. 2008 General: McCain 50-48. 2008 Congress: Rohrabacher 53-43. Dana Rohrabacher remains crazy, but he managed to survive a major challenge from Debbie Cook in 2008. Cook has shown no indication that she will run again, and because this seat is not one of the eight "Obama Republican" races that national Democrats have targeted, it is unlikely they will offer much in recruitment if Cook looks elsewhere. Still, if Cook does change her mind, this race would move back onto the radar screen. SAFE REP.

8. CA-04. Incumbent: Tom McClintock. PVI: R+10. 2008 General: McCain 54-44. 2008 Congress: McClintock 50.3-49.7. Obviously the chances in this race rise or fall on the entry of Charlie Brown into the race. Brown was in attendance at the CDP Convention, and he publicly mulled a run at an event with Gavin Newsom in Placer County recently. So he hasn't closed his mind to the option. Meanwhile, McClintock has been as obstructionist and nutty as you'd expect. I particularly enjoyed his Baghdad Bob claim that California didn't have a water shortage. Locally, sources tell me that McClintock is not well-liked by his fellow Republican electeds, who aren't getting their phone calls returned. But it all hinges on Brown. SAFE REP.

9. CA-24. Incumbent: Elton Gallegly. PVI: R+4. 2008 General: Obama 51-48. 2008 Congress: Gallegly 58-42. This seat has been trending to the Democrats for some time, but the right candidate to challenge Elton Gallegly has yet to emerge. Last year Marta Jorgensen raised very little in her race and still took 42%. Gallegly is always a threat to retire - he actually did it in 2006 before being coaxed back - so that option remains as well. Small businessman Shawn Stern has announced so far. SAFE REP.

10. CA-25. Incumbent: Buck McKeon. PVI: R+6. 2008 General: Obama 49-48. 2008 Congress: McKeon 58-42. Much like CA-24, this expansive district his been trending Democratic. In fact, no seat has a closer registration gap that's currently held by a Republican. But the Democratic Party infrastructure just seems to be lacking out here. Jackie Conaway raised I think $10,000 total for her entire race last year. She still managed 42% of the vote against Buck McKeon. There is certainly a profile of a Democratic candidate that could attract serious votes out here. But that person does not yet exist. Meanwhile, McKeon thinks Barack Obama broke into his house, or something. SAFE REP.

Campaign Update: CA-04, CA-32, CA-03, CA-10, CA-Yacht Party

Since it referenced me, let me start by shouting out to fellow Calitician Lucas O'Connor, writing on the front page of MyDD:

Since approximately the morning after election day in November, Dave Dayen has been writing over at Calitics about the dramatic Congressional pick-up opportunities in California that were missed in the Obama wave. Specifically, Obama carried 42 of California's 53 districts (I won't even begin right now to get into the state leg breakdown which is also a debacle), including eight districts held by Republicans in Congress. Well all of a sudden this week, the whole world is waking up to the Dayen gospel.

Attention started building about two weeks ago when the DCCC announced it would target all eight of these Obama-Republican California districts. But an announcement of DCCC targeting hasn't always meant a lot, so to really get going it took a new report from California Target Book finding in part:

Not only is the current statewide Republican registration of 31% a historic low, but for the first time there is not a single congressional, state senate or assembly district that has a majority Republican registration.

Apparently Bob Mulholland sent out a press release waking up to these facts last week. Now, I'm not going to hate on Mulholland for finally getting with the program. But let's make ourselves clear - this was true in 2006 and 2008 as well, and yet the state party failed to capitalize, by their own admission. So it's going to take more than one press release to show a commitment. Republicans have obviously become repellent to the broad majority of Californians, and they're too busy trying to recall each other to notice. It's upsetting that we haven't used this unpopularity in the past two election cycles, and I hope that the CDP can catch up with the curve.

They can start with effective recruitment. John Garamendi, who spoke to Greg Lucas as if he's still a gubernatorial candidate but who by all accounts will be running for Congress, ought to be pushed to run in the 3rd District, where he is the largest landowner and where there is currently no viable candidate to beat Dan Lungren in a district that is trending Democratic, instead of the 10th, where there are multiple viable candidates. Recruitment is an often-unremarked-upon but crucial element to winning elections.

Speaking of which...

• CA-04: This CapAlert piece certainly makes it sound like Charlie Brown might challenge Tom McClintock once again.

At the Jefferson-Jackson dinner at the Blue Goose Fruit Shed in Loomis, Brown and his wife, Jan, were honored as photographs flashed of Brown and supporters during four years of campaigning. The production was accompanied by songs from Bruce Springsteen's "No Surrender" to Neil Young's "Long May You Run."

And then Brown stirred huge cheers when he hinted he might have the stamina for one more try for Congress in 2010.

"We'll see what happens over the next few months - and whether you'll have the opportunity to get into any pictures again," Brown said.

In an interview, Brown said he is still mulling his prospects. He said he expects to decide by this fall.

We're big fans of Charlie here at Calitics, and should he run again we'll stand with him. McClintock would have the power of incumbency and a red-leaning district but the rumblings I'm hearing out of there signal that residents and local pols aren't all that enthused by the new Congressman's performance.

• CA-32: The LA Times weighs in with an overview of the 32nd race to replace Labor Secretary Hilda Solis set for May 19. They list Judy Chu and Gil Cedillo as the front-runners (though Emanuel Pleitez is profiled) and suggest that the race is a harbinger of the changing, minority-majority face of Southern California politics. They also mention the Betty Tom Chu controversy, as well as some allegations on the Cedillo side.

Judy Chu supporters suspect that Republican Betty Tom Chu, a Monterey Park councilwoman and a political opponent of Judy Chu, entered the race to confuse voters and harm the chances of her distant relative by marriage. Tom Chu said last week she did not have time to discuss her candidacy, but earlier told the San Gabriel Valley Tribune that she is running because she could not support any of the other candidates and wanted to offer voters an alternative.

Apparently motivated by concerns that the large number of Latino candidates in the race would split the vote in that group and give Judy Chu the edge, there also were signs of jockeying.

Democratic candidate Francisco Alonso, a former mayor of Monterey Park, and a campaign official for Democratic actor/filmmaker Stefan "Contreras" Lysenko each said Cedillo called them shortly before filing closed and urged them to drop out. A Cedillo spokesman said the state senator was merely inviting the others to "work together" with him and did not intend to discourage them from running.

Over the weekend, Cedillo won the endorsement of the LA County Young Democrats, while Chu garnered the endorsement of the state Democratic Party.

Charlie Brown Concedes In CA-04

After a long fight to count every vote, Charlie Brown has acknowledged that Tom McClintock will be the next Congressman representing CA-04. Here's part of his email to supporters:

Thanks to the extraordinary work of our local elections officials, I am pleased to report that the high standards of fairness, accuracy, and transparency have been met. And with the counts and recounts across district four complete, and more than 370,000 votes tallied, the outcome of this election is no longer in question. Unfortunately, we've come up less than one half of one percent---just under 1,800 votes---short of victory.
So a short time ago, I called Senator Tom McClintock to congratulate him on a hard fought victory, and to wish him well in Congress.

To you, I can only offer my deepest gratitude-for your generosity of time and resources, and your unwavering energy and encouragement. Together, we have transformed the 4 th District, and lifted this campaign higher and farther than anyone thought possible.

I am proud of the campaign we ran.

Charlie fought a very good fight, actually becoming a point person for veteran's issues around the country and leading by example with his Promises Kept Challenge, donating 5% of his campaign contributions to organizations serving veterans and their families. And he showed through two cycles that the supposedly hopeless 4th District is more than winnable to the right candidate.

Still, he came up just short. But I don't think he has anything to be ashamed of.

This closes the book on elections in California. While the final numbers and vote totals will be released Dec. 13, we know that Democrats picked up a net 3 seats in the Assembly, no seats in the Senate, and no seats in the Congress. That's the performance despite a 24-point victory at the top of the ticket, the biggest in California since 1936.

We'll have much to discuss about this in the weeks to come, looking back to what happened and looking forward to prospects in the years ahead. For now, a sincere thanks to Charlie Brown, who made us proud.

CA-04: Down To 329 Votes

Huge news in the continued counting of Charlie Brown's race against Tom McClintock. The latest round of counting has Brown within 329 votes as the provisionals, which tend to favor Democrats, get counted in the larger counties in the district.

Charlie Brown (Dem) 170,168 49.9%
Tom McClintock (Rep) 170,497 50.1%

There are still tens of thousands of votes left to count, and there's a virtual assurance of at least a partial recount. Tom McClintock has been sending his list these smug reports of the day's counting, telling them how everything's looking great. I haven't seen an update from him in a couple days. Probably because this is shaping up as a replay of the 2002 State Controller race, when the late provisionals put Steve Westly over the top in his race against... Tom McClintock.

Extended races like this cost money to maintain staff and pay lawyers. You can help Charlie out at the Calitics ActBlue page.

...I guess a slew of votes came in from Placer County and widened McClintock's lead in a big way.

"We're not claiming victory, but we just think it's mathematically impossible for (Brown) to win," said Bill George, spokesman for McClintock.
George said the thousands of Placer County votes tallied Friday stretched McClintock's lead from barely 300 votes to 1,793, with only about 4,500 more votes to count in the nine-county district.

Brown spokesman Todd Stenhouse said Brown would not concede, noting that thousands more votes remain to be counted, most of which are provisional ballots that "have been breaking very, very strongly for Charlie."

"We remain committed to the same goals that we've been committed to all along and that is that every vote is counted in this historic election," Stenhouse said.

CA Election Update: Now Behind In All Close Race Counts

As TINS posted yesterday, Hannah-Beth Jackson has now fallen behind in the latest count of her race in SD-19, and according to local reports the remaining votes to be counted are mainly in Strickland-friendly areas. This one looks grim. At this hour Strickland leads by 1,560 votes, and it's actually outside of the 1/2 of 1% required for a partial recount.

Hannah-Beth Jackson (Dem) 186,071 49.7%
Tony Strickland (Rep) 187,631 50.3%

The other two races we're monitoring are actually in better shape than Hannah-Beth's. In AD-10, the latest numbers from the Secretary of State show Jack Sieglock leading Alyson Huber by just 506 votes.

Alyson L. Huber (Dem) 80,507 46.4%
Jack Sieglock (Rep) 81,013 46.8%

This is currently inside recount territory. According to Randy Bayne, the remaining ballots left to count are mainly in Sacramento and San Joaquin Counties. The ballot count is done in Amador County and mostly done in El Dorado County. With some luck, the Sacramento County ballots will swing for Huber; she beat Sieglock 52-41 there. Sieglock won San Joaquin County 51-42.

In CA-04, Charlie Brown is within 569 votes of Tom McClintock.

Charlie Brown (Dem) 168,378 49.9%
Tom McClintock (Rep) 168,947 50.1%

The question is how many ballots are left in Nevada County, where Brown won big. According to the unprocessed ballot report, there are still 10,000 left up there, but I think that's outdated information. It's probably more like 5,000, if not less. Still, we are well within the .5% required for a partial recount. So that's where that's likely to be headed regardless of what happens with the final numbers.

Again, counts and recounts cost money, so if you can chip in a couple bucks for these Democrats at the Calitics ActBlue page, I'm sure they'd be grateful.

Quick Update on Close California Races

Unfortunately the news is not good. In CA-04, Charlie Brown has fallen behind of Tom McClintock by 1,092 votes, with still over 52,000 left to count. In CA-44, the number is now 5,896 votes separating Ken Calvert and Bill Hedrick. Both are trending away. In AD-10, Jack Sieglock now has a 614-vote lead on Alyson Huber. Only in SD-19 are we still on top, with Hannah-Beth Jackson leading Tony Strickland by 1,203 votes, which is exactly where the race was over the weekend.

A roundup of the close races at a glance is here. And you can help defray the costs of the lawyers to watch the counts and the staffs to support them at the Calitics ActBlue page.

Couting Madness: Huber within 319 votes, Clark and DFA Come Out For Brown

Everyone should bookmark this site monitoring the close races that haven't been called in California. There are four such races within 2% at the moment. There's Prop. 11, which is trending toward passage with a 131,000 vote lead. There's SD-19, which has some breathing room now, as Hannah-Beth Jackson leads by 1,203 votes.

And then there are the two Sacramento-area races. Alyson Huber's race in AD-10 has really tightened up. She now trails Jack Sieglock by just 319 votes out of 154,000 counted. That is well within the 1/2 of 1% territory that would trigger an automatic recount. Which brings up an interesting question which perhaps some election junkie could answer. The Secretary of State certifies the count on December 2. But the new legislature is sworn in on December 1. If there's a race with no clear winner at that point, what happens?

Finally, we have CA-04, the race between Charlie Brown and Tom McClintock. This has bounced around a bit, but we're now looking at an 889 vote lead for McClintock. There are anywhere between 48,000 and 55,000 votes left to count, based on this chart (which you can also bookmark) of unprocessed ballots. This race also appeared headed to a recount, and if you believe this Daily Kos diarist, Brown has a good shot at making up ground, because there are so many outstanding votes in Nevada County, where Brown did best.

We know these counts and recounts are expensive, and now two groups have stepped up with their support of Charlie while we sort this out. Wes Clark sent an email to his list today:

Our friend Charlie Brown needs our help. The margin in California's 4th Congressional District is razor thin, and they're still counting votes. After more than 300,000 ballots were cast in CA-04, the race is tied. The current difference stands at less than half of 1% (less than 500 votes).

With 40,000 vote-by-mail and provisional ballots still to be counted, the race is way too close to call. That's why it's critical for us to make sure all the votes are counted in CA-04.

Please contribute to Charlie Brown's Election Protection Fund today!

Charlie's opponent, Tom McClintock, has hired an election attorney and brought in a team of lawyers to "watch" the locations where absentee and provisional ballots are being counted. McClintock's team is doing everything they can to challenge the votes of thousands of people who faithfully cast their ballots.

Charlie needs our help to fight back.

And DFA has done the same:

In 2000, we lost the election when the Bush campaign beat us in the legal and media fight that followed. In 2004, we had to force a recount in the Washington State Governor's race and we won because you delivered the resources to make it happen.

We need to raise at least $40,000 by Monday to back up these races with the resources they need right now.

CONTRIBUTE $50 TO THE DFA COUNT EVERY VOTE FUND

In 2004, we raised over $250,000 for the Washington State recount. This year, we need $40,000 right now to keep the GOP dirty tricks at bay and make sure every vote is counted fairly.

DFA's Grassroots All-Star Charlie Brown needs resources to fend off a team of Republican lawyers who, as I write this message, are challenging every Democratic ballot before the FIRST count has even been completed. Charlie is down by less than 500 votes with over 15,000 votes still to be counted. He needs our help to make sure every vote is counted.

(Note: it's now 889 votes with over 48,000 votes left to be counted)

Lots Of Races Yet To Be Decided In California

Dante Atkins reports about the potential for an upset in CA-44:

According to Lori Vendermeir, Hedrick's communications director, the OC Register and the Press Enterprise called the race for Calvert, but then rescinded their call. There are, simply put, tens of thousands of absentee and provisional ballots left to count, and Bill apparently keeps on inching closer.

HOWEVER: In typical Republican fashion, Ken Calvert's lawyers are trying to shut down the counting process in both Riverside and Orange County.

If you live in these counties--especially if you're a CA-44 voter--we need your help.

Call the office of the registrars, and tell them to count every vote. Bill is not going to concede until every vote his counted, and he stands a reasonable chance at pulling out a shocker in SoCal.

Orange County Registrar: (714) 567-7600
Riverside County Registrar: (951) 486-7200

Just to put some hard numbers to this, right now, the results are here:

Bill Hedrick (Dem) 85,039 48.6%
Ken Calvert (Rep) 89,679 51.4%

That is not yet in the universe of what the Secretary of State calls a close race, one that has a spread of less than 2% between the winner and loser. But clearly, with so many ballots left to be counted, CA-44 must be put into the realm of possibility.

By the way, if you're wondering what is a "close race" right now, that would be AD-10, SD-19, CA-04, and Prop. 11. None of those should be called right now based on current information. So as I said yesterday, this election is not over. Frank Russo also has a good report on this.

CA-04: "Missing Ballots" in Nevada County?

Earlier, I mentioned that the CA-04 race is not over. This bit of news reinforces that fact:

Truckee Town Council is one race that hangs in the balance.

“Four years ago I got 3,700 votes, and Josh [Susman] got 3,300, and this year so far we both have about 2,200,” said current Mayor and candidate Barbara Green.
“Something is not quite right.”

She said she figures about 1,000 to 2,000 votes are still unaccounted for in Truckee.

The missing votes could have repercussions as far reaching as the tightly-contested 4th Congressional District race between Republican Tom McClintock and Democrat Charlie Brown, Green said.

The spokeswoman for a local ballot measure makes this sound more like a mystery of missing ballots rather than votes that are simply uncounted:

Proponents of the Tahoe Truckee Unified School District Measure U hoped the outstanding ballots may make the difference.

“Clearly there’s been a major administrative error. We are hopefully those
outstanding ballots will push Measure U over the top,” said Alison Elder, Measure U chair.

Administrative error? What does that mean, exactly.

This could be especially important because Brown won Nevada County, the county in question, by a substantial margin (57-43). If there are potentially 2,000 votes there, that would make up a lot of that difference if the margin holds.

...by the way, Bill Hedrick in CA-44 might be getting into recount territory, incredibly. It's down to a spread of just 2.8% between Hedrick and Rep. Ken Calvert, a difference of only 4,600 votes. It's the closest Congressional race outside of CA-04. I am sorry I didn't pay enough attention to it. Go Bill!

CA-04: This Election Is Not Over

I would really like to get to the post-mortem and the ritual hacking of limbs to answer for the disconnect between a resounding victory at the top of the ticket and barely a ripple below it, but that would be assuming that the votes are all in. And they have not. There are maybe 3 MILLION ballots, in the form of late absentees and provisionals, still outstanding throughout the state. Now, this may not swing any of the statewide numbers with the exception of Prop. 11, but there are plenty of local races close enough that we have to make sure every vote is properly and accurately counted.

In particular, there's the closest race of the night, the battle between Charlie Brown and Tom McClintock in CA-04. Right now, the lead for McClintock on the Secretary of State's website is 451 votes. I'm told that lead is smaller, inside 400 votes. And furthermore, there are FORTY THOUSAND VOTES yet to be counted. These are the late-arriving permanent absentee votes, the ones that people bring to the polls on Election Day, which are always the last to be counted. There are also provisional ballots out there.

This race is not over. 40,000 votes must be counted and they must be counted fairly. Nobody should concede this race, least of all us. Here's a historical reminder - in 2002 Steve Westly was behind in his State Controller race by 10,000 votes once all the precincts returned. But provisional ballots broke for him 60-40, and he was elected.

His opponent that year was Tom McClintock.

Charlie Brown can win this race, but he needs your help. Hiring lawyers to ensure accurate counting is expensive. Maintaining a staff beyond Election Day is expensive. Going through to a recount, which is probable, is expensive.

If neither candidate emerges with a lead exceeding 1/2 of 1 percent of the vote, the race will automatically go to a partial manual recount, according to the secretary of state's office. That was the outcome the Brown campaign anticipated as the upset Brown aimed for still seemed in reach.

Charlie Brown is still in this race. You can support him at the Calitics ActBlue page.

Not For The Squeamish - Goat's Head Left On Doorstep Of Charlie Brown Campaign Office

This could be the result of a Halloween prank, all the way up to something out of The Godfather. But the fact that it happened at the beginning of GOTV weekend is very curious.

On Friday night, upon leaving the Charlie Brown for Congress campaign office in Grass Valley, staffers found a severed goat's head on the front step. I put the pictures on the flip side of this Calitics story, because they are graphic and disturbing, so please don't open the link if you don't want to see them.

Who in the world would do something like this? I don't care if it has nothing to do with the election, although putting it at a Brown campaign office obviously makes a certain connection. Authorities were involved in the removal and are looking into finding the perpetrator. If this is politically motivated, it is sad and cruel for someone to involve an innocent farm animal in their personal frustration or anger or derangement. Hopefully, those responsible will be caught.

CA Campaign Update: CA-04, CA-45, CA-46, AD-78

A few odds and ends:

• CA-04: Tom McClintock is bringing out the big guns to help his cash-strapped campaign - Ron Paul is all in!

Paul, the libertarian-Republican congressman from Texas who raised more than $34 million for his presidential race, sent out an e-mail last week urging his massive donor base to contribute to McClintock.

"Tom McClintock is one of the most promising warriors in the fight against big government we have seen in a long time, and the special interests and big bankers know it. ... You have stood with me as....

...I campaigned for the Presidency to return our federal government to its proper role. Will you help me bring a reliable ally to Congress?"

This brings up some interesting questions. Does Tom McClintock think we should withdraw from Iraq and dozens of other military bases around the world? Does he believe in abolishing the Federal Reserve? The coinage of free silver?

They do have one thing in common, however - white supremacist supporters.

• CA-45: New voter registration statistics have not been released by the Secretary of State's office, but I think they will show good news for Democrats across the state. One statistic that is measurable is the early voting number, and in CA-45, it's good news for Julie Bornstein.

Democrats have significantly narrowed the early voting gap in the 45th Congressional District, an encouraging sign for challenger Julie Bornstein in her battle to unseat Congresswoman Mary Bono Mack (R-Palm Springs), according to Bornstein campaign manager Walter Ludwig.

In both 2004 and 2006, registered Republicans accounted for about 54 percent of early voters, compared with just 34 percent for Democrats. Mack, now a four-term incumbent, cruised to re-election both years by more than 20 points.

This year, early voting is much more evenly split. The latest numbers from the Riverside County Registrar of Voters show that registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by just five percent among early voters.

It's like the entire Republican machine all collapsed at once. They used to be MASTERS at getting absentee votes out. This year, there's either no such effort, or it's being matched by Democrats. CA-45 is under the radar, but these numbers suggest that it shouldn't be.

• CA-46: At the Great Orange Satan, Devilstower has a great piece that could start a new meme about Debbie Cook - the anti-Palin.

Suppose there was a candidate who was as bright and as capable as Sarah Palin is confused and incompetent.

Someone who had a record of working with environmental groups, and who had a real understanding of the threat posed by our dependence on fossil fuels. Someone with a degree in earth science and the long experience to make the claim of being a genuine energy expert.

Someone who not only knew science, but also had a law degree, and was a graduate of the leadership program at the Kennedy School of Government. Someone who has held positions of honor in state and national commissions. Someone who was well respected for both her intellect and her passion.

Suppose there was a candidate who had been mayor of, not a tiny town, but a medium-sized city. And suppose she took that position as a Democrat in the midst of a heavily Republican district.

Suppose there was someone who was everything that Sarah Palin is not.

Fortunately for us, there's Debbie Cook.

Read the whole thing. And help Debbie if you can.

• AD-78: Bill Cavala, who worked the last close race in this district, took a peek at some new registration numbers which show a real advantage for Marty Block:

This year the new registration ‘close’ figures show the Democrats with 101, 131 registrants, an increase of about 4100 from the last Presidential year. DTS registrations are 49,855, an increase of about 5800 from 2004. Most remarkably, however, Republican registration has fallen by almost 8000 – from 82,615 four years ago to 74,700 today.

This means the net change is Dems up 4100 and Reps down 8000 or 12,100 in favor of the Democrat over 2004.

Forget the increase in DTS registrations – which vote more Democratic than Republican in San Diego. Starting out down 12,000 in a seat where they won by 2000 with an incumbent – it’s open this year – puts the Republican candidate squarely behind the 8 ball.

Just one of the many Assembly races where this is so.

CA-04: Charlie Cook Finally Wakes Up And Moves This To A Toss-Up

Charlie Cook, the favored Congressional tipster for insiders, is notoriously conservative in his selections. And as such, he's slow to recognize races that, based on outdated fundamentals, simply "can't" be competitive. It's embarrassing that it's taken him this long to move CA-04 to a toss-up. Here's his precis:

CA-04 OPEN (Doolittle) Lean Republican to Toss Up
All GOP state Sen. Tom McClintock needed to do to put this district away was to run ads noting Democratic nominee Charlie Brown’s attendance at anti-war rallies. The only problem? McClintock ran out of money too soon and has been inexplicably “dark” on broadcast television in the final phase of the campaign, allowing Brown and the DCCC to remain in strong contention by portraying McClintock as a carpetbagger and self-serving career politician.

Republicans in Washington fret that McClintock has run a second rate campaign and that even with an extensive statewide fundraising network, he has failed to put together a competent media strategy. The NRCC, too broke to come to McClintock’s rescue, is also off the air in the expensive Sacramento market. Some Republicans suggest that in the end, their biggest advantage in this district may be the presence of Proposition 8, a measure to eliminate same-sex marriage, on the California ballot. This race should be a slam dunk for the GOP, but right now it is a toss up.

First of all, there's no way that misleading anti-war rally attack would have derailed the Brown campaign. Most of the country is against the war. But putting that aside, Cook shares my astonishment that Mr. Fiscal Conservative McClintock managed to run out of money weeks before the race was over. That is some epic mismanagement.

Cook is wrong about another thing, the NRCC is trying to ride to the rescue, up with a new ad trying to paint Brown as a "liberal yes man." I just don't think this is the year to throw around the "L" word like it's some kind of boogeyman. Anyway, don't they know that these days, you're supposed to call the Democrat a socialist or a Marxist? Looking at the ad, it looks like the NRCC and McClintock went Dutch on it.

The point is that the GOP hasn't totally given up on this race, and while I'm confident in Brown's abilities he could definitely use some reinforcements in the final week. You can give at the Calitics ActBlue page.

CA Congressional Campaign Update: The State of the Race With One Week To Go

There's so much going on in this bounty of close races, it's hard to follow it all as just lil' ol' me and without a full-time staff. But clearly, California is terribly broken because there are no competitive seats and so we must change the redistricting process and re-gerrymander competitiveness into them. Right? Below, I offer an update on every seat that's even reasonably close. I'll get to the Assembly and Senate races later today or tomorrow.

• CA-11. Not much going on here. Jerry McNerney's lead is stable and he still has a huge cash lead in the October 15 numbers (I didn't do a full report on them because at this stage you either have the money or you don't). It doesn't appear that the national Republicans are getting involved in this race in any meaningful way. The SF Chronicle endorsed McNerney over the weekend. SAFE DEM.

• CA-04. As I reported yesterday, the poll numbers are looking solid for Charlie Brown in his effort to flip this Northern California-area seat. And Tom McClintock is out of money. Some fiscal conservative. LEAN DEM. (I wanted to go Likely but didn't want to jinx it)

• CA-50. This was the only other seat that wound up on the infamous GOP "Death List." The national Republicans wrote off CA-04 and considered this one to be the next closest race out there, adding that "if there's a wave, (this seat) could be in trouble." Well guess what, there's a wave. Trying to save his skin, Brian Bilbray is turning to the issue of Congressional earmarks, putting out a mailer that claims Nick Leibham would stuff appropriations bills with pork. This is extremely unlikely for a freshman Congresscritter to even be able to do - normally the incumbent runs on his ability to bring home the bacon. In fact, Bilbray requested $38 million in pork this year. Anyone thinking earmarks are the scourge of the federal government is not serious about the budget process, and this shows to me that Bilbray is trying to throw up a smokescreen. He's scared. TOSS UP.

• CA-03. Check out Dan Lungren whining because his Vietnam Vet opponent Bill Durston bothered to point out that Lungren never served but is eager to send American men and women into battle to do so.

"I'm just a little fed up with this guy and his attitude accusing me of being unpatriotic," Lungren said in a telephone interview today. "There is not just McCarthyism on the right. There evidently is McCarthyism on the left. All I ask is what they said at the McCarthy hearings years ago: 'Have you no honor, Sir?'"

The Republican incumbent was irked when Durston questioned his lack of military service in Thursday night's candidate forum in Carmichael and followed up with a television advertisement and a mailer attacking Lungren as someone "who never served in the military and has never provided public documentation to show why."

The television ad says in part: "Have you seen the dishonest mailer from Dan Lungren accusing decorated Marine Corps Combat Veteran Dr. Bill Durston of not supporting our troops? The same Dan Lungren who never served himself, who never documented how he got a medical draft deferment."

In the Carmichael forum, Durston complained about a Lungren mailer questioning his support for the military and chided the congressman by saying: "Dan Lungren may have joined the Cub Scouts. But I joined the United States Marines at the height of the Vietnam War. I served in combat and was decorated for courage under fire... . While I was fighting in the jungles of Vietnam, Lungren was sitting out the war on a medical draft deferment, serving as the chair of youth for Nixon."

Look, Lungren clearly started this fight by claiming that Durston was an antiwar DFH for wanting to get out of Iraq. If he can't take the heat when Durston makes perfectly factual statements about him, maybe he shouldn't be in politics. Meanwhile, John Garamendi endorsed Dr. Durston over the weekend, and called Lungren "a draft dodger." Hey, politics ain't beanbag. SLIGHT LEAN REPUBLICAN.

• CA-46. Former Republican Congressman and Presidential candidate Pete McCloskey came down to Orange County over the weekend to endorse Debbie Cook and rally the troops. I'm hearing from the campaign that Debbie's recent fundraising has been fantastic and their targeted mailers and TV ads are up and running. Dana Rohrabacher had better brace himself for that progressive wave; this race is going to be tight. SLIGHT LEAN REPUBLICAN.

• CA-45. This race between Mary Bono Mack and Julie Bornstein has been much quieter than I expected. Bono Mack has taken some heat in the large LGBT community in the district by calling them "a group of people," but her large campaign war chest and public invisibility has made her a difficult target. She's avoided Bornstein almost completely in the campaign, and has run deceptive ads linking Bornstein to Fannie and Freddie, which as we know created the WHOLE FINANCIAL CRISIS. I think increased turnout is going to be a problem for Mack but she may just skate by. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

• CA-26. The problem with Russ Warner's campaign was always going to be overcoming that huge pot of money David Dreier was sitting on. This forced him to spend more and more time raising funds and less talking to voters. Howie Klein at Blue America is trying to come to Warner's rescue with a pretty salacious mailer hitting Dreier for his, well, open secret. You can go over to Down With Tyranny and check it out. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

• CA-52. Duncan D. Hunter and Mike Lumpkin debated last week and it was pretty spirited, with Lumpkin attacking Hunter for being a legacy hire and a "Congressman's kid." I don't know if that'll cut it in this district, especially with Hunter having a serious cash advantage, though I keep hearing about polls showing this race close. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

• CA-42. Ed Chau has gotten around to running his first ad of the cycle, focusing on Gary Miller's corruption. This is another race buoyed by internal polling that shows it close, but I'll believe it when I see it. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

• CA-01: This race against incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) is not even close, but I had to add this one because of this amazing robocall:

Zane Starkewolf, candidate for CA-1, and running as a "green republication" decided to launch an ILLEGAL robo call (all robo calls are illegal in CA) with the following transcript: Audio here.

"Mike Thompson has been a baaaaaad boy. We all said no to the bailout but Thompson backed Bush. Just like he did with the Patriot act, uhhhhhh, vote YESSSSSSSSS ! for Zane."

He actually had to send out a press release DEFENDING this call. Hysterical.

CA-04: Sac Bee Endorses Charlie Brown

The biggest newspaper in the region, the Sacramento Bee, makes the case for Charlie Brown and a new direction in the district, particularly on the area of putting pragmatism above ideology. Now, I don't totally agree with all the conclusions of the editorial, but the last bit is unquestionably true:

Brown understands that the that the mortgage crisis, the collapse of the financial system, the credit crunch and the recession are real. He would have supported the rescue plan because doing nothing was worse than doing something, though he believes Congress has done a poor job of selling the package. And the final package assured taxpayers get any profits, required congressional oversight, banned golden parachutes.

This is telling. McClintock sticks to ideology; Brown pragmatically puts the nation first.

The nation and the 4th District need to find ways out of partisan and ideological gridlock. Elect Charlie Brown to Congress.

Now, if the final package wasn't such a dog with fleas that the feds have basically scrapped it, and if the banks weren't using it to collect free money instead of facilitating lending, this would be a stronger argument. Whatever; the Bee's endorsements have been profoundly odd, and have seemed to value bipartisan seriousness over everything. But I think there's a difference between rejecting partisanship and abandoning core principles. I think that Charlie Brown will govern the way he has campaigned, by working through problems and using his best judgment based on his values and principles. Tom McClintock is incapable of adapting to changing information whatsoever.

What he will do is try to play dirty to win the election, including sending nasty robocalls throughout the district because they're cheap for his cash-strapped campaign. The problem is that they haven't done a good job of checking their call lists. The Brown campaign, for example, got robocalled.

UPDATE: The latest poll shows Brown expanding his slim but measurable lead.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE 5% (9/23-25 results)

McClintock (R) 42 (41)
Brown (D) 48 (46)

Among early voters (13 percent of respondents)

McClintock (R) 38
Brown (D) 56

Brown takes independents 51-34. McClintock's fav/unfav is at 44/42. Brown is at 49/29. And McClintock is out of the cash he'd need to push up Brown's unfavorables.

This is very good news. Let's get this seat. Stay for Change.

CA Campaign Update: CA-03, CA-04, CA-46, Assembly & Senate

Here's some tidbits from the campaign trail with 12 days out:

• CA-03: Bill Durston and Dan Lungren debated last night, and it was a predictable affair, says Randy Bayne:

Nothing new, no fireworks, no knockout punch, no excitement of any kind was reported by either MyMotherLode.com or the Stockton Record. Just what we already know — Durston wants us out of Iraq, doesn’t like No Child Left Behind, and thinks the bailout is the wrong solution. Lungren supports the occupation, favors No Child Left Behind, and voted for the bailout.

If you’re looking for change from eight years of down the toilet policy, and you don’t want to continue flushing our future down the crapper – vote for Bill Durston.

If the registration stats cited by anecdotal reports are at all accurate, we're going to be very close to registration parity in this seat by Election Day. Lungren may be acting positive in public, but inside the campaign they must be terrified. They probably didn't expect Durston to run a credible campaign.

• CA-04: Tom McClintock has caught a bit of trouble for relating gay people to dogs in a roundabout way.

"Lincoln asked, 'If you call a tail a leg, how many legs has a dog? The answer is four. Calling a tail a leg doesn’t make it one,'" McClintock said in a statement. "And calling a homosexual partnership a marriage doesn’t make it one."

I'm pretty sure that means nothing at all, but California's Alan Keyes has had to distance himself from the comment. Meanwhile his much bigger problem is lacking the funds to run a proper campaign. He's now taken to relying on cheap robocalls, and Charlie Brown has immediately called on him to stop. Dirty trick robocalls that appeared to be coming from the Brown campaign were a major factor in John Doolittle's narrow re-election in 2006.

• CA-46: I didn't get a chance to post Debbie Cook's amazing closing statement at Tuesday's debate. Here it is.



The OC Register has a story on this race today. These "Challenger hopes to upset incumbent" stories have a familiar feel to them - the pose of surprise that the race is competitive, the quote from the shallow CW fountain like Allen Hoffenblum explaining why the incumbent is probably still safe, and the overall sense of shock, which would be natural if you weren't paying attention for the last 18 months, like, um, us.

• Assembly & Senate: Art Torres and Ron Nehring had a debate yesterday, and I think Torres needed to be prepped a little better. He claimed that Democrats could grab a 2/3 majority in the legislature but then couldn't come up with a simple list of what seats are in play. He should be reading more Calitics. Nehring replied with a lot of bunk and a little truth.

None of that adds up to 54 and 27, of course, and Nehring said Torres' boast "just doesn't pencil out."

He noted that Democratic efforts to oust Sen. Jeff Denham via recall failed miserably this year and the party ended up with no opponent to challenge Sen. Abel Maldonado in Santa Maria, a district believed to be winnable by a Democrat.

On the Assembly side, Nehring said, Republicans "have a great shot at holding on to" the 15th and "have a number of strategic advantages in the 78th (because) the Democrats have nominated the most liberal candidate (Marty Block) they possibly could."

In the 80th, the Democratic candidate (Manuel Perez) "is getting hammered on ... social issues which are important to many people in the Latino community," Nehring said.

"I don't know how can you be serious about trying to have a two-thirds vote in the Legislature," Nehring told Torres, "when you blow so many of these opportunities."

I'll go bottom to top on this. Manuel Perez is going to CRUSH Gary Jeandron, and if anyone's being hammered, it's the Republicans. The IE money is pretty one-sided in the state. Between that and the registration gains, it'll take more than just spin to dig your party out of its self-created hole, Mr. Nehring.

However, on one point I will agree with you. The Denham recall and Maldonado disaster have indeed stopped the potential forward momentum in the Senate. Of course, Torres couldn't say the plain truth - that Don Perata is among the worst leaders in recent Democratic Party history, and has completely set back the state in major ways by his blunders. He is an embarrassment.

CA-04: Debate And D-Trip Drops An Ad

The 4th District had a debate as well last night, the fifth and final of the campaign, and it was spirited.

Every scathing remark and harsh charge that's gone back and forth in the congressional race between Republican Tom McClintock and Democrat Charlie Brown got one more airing Tuesday night.

Speaking at a forum sponsored by the South Nevada County Chamber of Commerce south of Grass Valley, McClintock was painted as a do-nothing career politician and Brown as a tax-loving big-government advocate.

And there was also some talk about issues, mixed in with the shots, though sometimes each answer was equal parts both.

It was the usual nonsense: McClintock wants to drill here and drill now. McClintock wants no taxes and no government. McClintock wants to privatize Social Security (yes, even now). McClintock thinks Keebler elves can build the roads and bridges and a thimble-full of oil can power a Lexus. He's a magical thinker. But I have to say that this was my favorite part, and not just because McClintock doesn't know the meaning of the word "liquidity."

McClintock also roundly criticized the recently passed Wall Street bailout package, saying the better route was to put liquidity into the market.

Brown countered that he supported the plan because something needed to be done, then made reference to recent Federal Election Commission reports that showed McClintock's campaign in debt.

"You can't even run your own campaign on a balanced budget, so I don't trust you to run our nation's budget," Brown said.

Brown also hit McClintock over spending the past two years in Sacramento without getting one piece of legislation passed.

Brown took aim at McClintock's record as a state legislator, making reference to a recent Sacramento Bee story that reported McClintock had a perfect record of getting no legislation passed in the last two years.

"This is about actual results, and not talking about what you want to do unless you propose something else you can get passed," Brown said.

The debate is not going to have a major viewing audience. But the airwaves will, and the DCCC has just dropped a long-awaited ad in the district. It's good.



That's quite a lot for 30 seconds, but they pretty much cover California's Alan Keyes and make him out to be the punchline that he is.

The question is whether or not McClintock has 10 cents to respond to this.

CA-04: I Think McClintock's Out Of Money

Politico picks up the story of Tom McClintock's fundraising woes, and the fact that he was in the red as of October 1. I didn't know this:

But according to his campaign finance reports, he heads into the home stretch without much campaign cash left. McClintock spent more money than he raised, ending September with just $94,000 in his campaign account.

He is not currently airing airing any television ads, and hasn’t been for the last two weeks.

If he's off the air right now, it's going to be next to impossible for him to get back on. The NRCC doesn't have a whole lot of money to play with, especially considering all the incumbents they have to defend. And the GOTV efforts, radio, phone calls, mailers, etc., cost plenty of money. If McClintock's living from hand to mouth right now, he's not going to get back on TV. And needless to say, Charlie Brown has plenty of money to blanket TV in the final two weeks. It's incredible.

And what's amazing is that this is how McClintock handled the primary as well. He overspent early and wound up running on fumes the last couple weeks. It wasn't a big deal against Doug Ose, but against a formidable opponent like Brown it'll matter. The supposed fiscal conservative can't even manage his own campaign stash.

CA Campaign Update: Lots And Lots Of News

Obviously, with just over two weeks to go, there's quite a bit going on.

• CA-46: The Daily Pilot, a local paper in the district, writes about Debbie Cook:

Neither campaign would release its polling numbers, but both acknowledged that the affluent, heavily Republican coastal district that has primed Rohrabacher for victories in excess of 20 points in every election for the last decade will not be quite as friendly to the GOP candidate this year.

General frustration with the Bush administration, which has overseen the rapid deterioration of the American economy, is one of the biggest factors in heralding the turnaround for Democrats, according to UCI political science professor Carole Uhlaner.

“Given the combination of a strong, well-known current official with good funding and the change in the national tide there’s a chance that Rohrabacher could lose,” Uhlaner said.

And our pal Todd Beeton of MyDD writes up the great event for Debbie I attended yesterday. But the pivotal moment of the campaign might be tomorrow at 11:15am. Dana Rohrabacher and Debbie Cook will debate for the only time in the campaign. We all know that when Crazy Dana opens his mouth, bad things happen for him. We've seen on a national level what can happen to candidates with loose lips and an extremist ideology - ask Michelle Bachmann. So we'll be monitoring the debate tomorrow.

• CA-03: For some reason, Bill Durston is taking very seriously the Sacramento Bee's endorsement of Dan Lungren. Through his outreach to supporters, the letters to the editor in the wake of the endorsement were entirely on Durston's side. I don't think these newspaper endorsements mean much, but it is something incumbents can use in their advertising, so it does have an impact. And frequently these local editorial boards are pushing a conservative agenda that is resistant to change.

Speaking of debates, Lungren and Durston also have one tomorrow. So there should be a lot of post-debate highlights to discuss.

• CA-04: I tend to think that this story, flagged by Dante over the weekend, is just devastating for Tom McClintock, so I'm going to post it again.

Tom McClintock, a conservative Republican in a Democratic-dominated state Legislature, is the only state lawmaker to fail to shepherd a single piece of legislation into law in the last two years.

Not that he seems to mind [...]

"I came to the conclusion a long time ago that minority legislators have a choice," said McClintock, who has served for 22 years in Sacramento. "One is to tinker at the margins and win very minor victories on unimportant matters and the other is to try to drive the public policy debate on major issues, sacrificing legislative victories for broader policy victories."

I think America has had just about enough of obstructionist ideologues with no interest in governing. If the Brown campaign plays this right, McClintock is toast. This invalidates his entire candidacy. It doesn't surprise me that wingnuts are trying to wrap social issues around Brown's neck to try and distract from this. But at a fundamental level, Tom McClintock is telling the voters of CA-04 that he won't lift a finger in Congress for them. Since the Democrats will retain the majority, McClintock as a Congressman would be a press release machine without even trying to pass legislation. It's not his job, he thinks.

That is a death rattle for McClintock.

• AD-15: If Dianne Feinstein is popular anywhere, it's out in districts in the Central Valley like AD-15, and so her endorsement of Joan Buchanan is notable, also because she's a habitually lazy campaigner and doesn't do much for Democratic candidates historically. She's also endorsed Fran Florez in AD-30 and John Eisenhut in AD-26. This is the region where her endorsement can have the most effect.

• AD-36: Here's a good piece from Dick Price about Linda Jones, the longshot candidate out in this district in the Antelope Valley. She is a special ed. teacher in Palmdale and a board of Trustees member, looking to become the first Democrat to represent this area since 1974. She sounds good to me:

Indeed, after putting up token opposition in recent races and losing by landslide margins, Democrats have finally leveled the playing field, narrowing the difference between Republican and Democratic registration to just 1.6%, according to the Jones campaign. Earlier this year, the Antelope Valley Press reported that 74% of new voters were registering as Democrats, compared to just 4% as Republicans, with the remaining registering as “decline to states.”

The region’s dramatic growth has not come without costs.

“Jobs here are either in aerospace or retail, so often people have to go into Los Angeles for work,” Jones says. “A third of the people are commuting downtown—that’s hard on people, their families, their marriages, their pocketbooks, their health.”

In Sacramento, Jones would work for a “Green Jobs” initiative, diversifying the Antelope Valley workforce, for example, by fostering much-needed solar and wind power industries that would create good-paying local jobs so fewer people would have to undertake the brutal commute downtown.

It would be incredible to win this seat.

• AD-10: The Sac Bee thinks that the race between Alyson Huber and Jack Sieglock will come down to turnout:

The game-changer for Alyson Huber or Jack Sieglock could be voter turnout to cast presidential ballots, said Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of California Target Book, which handicaps legislative races.

"How they vote for Obama probably will be the most important factor," Hoffenblum said of 10th District residents, who tend to lean to the right – but by a dwindling margin.

The GOP's edge in registered voters has fallen the past four years from 6 percentage points to just 2, giving Democrats an outside chance of an Assembly upset if Obama's draw is decisively higher than McCain's, Hoffenblum said.

Well that's just devastating to Sieglock, because the excitement gap is much higher for Obama. Then again, he won't be doing a lot of GOTV in California, so Huber's going to need to run a strong operation of her own. The two candidates are even in fundraising, but Huber is getting major IE help.

• AD-80: Great new ad from Manuel Perez:



• SD-19: The money is pouring into this race, as it's the only one contested on the Senate side. Tony Strickland has outraised Hannah-Beth Jackson by about $3 million to $2 million, but 53% of Strickland's take is from business PACs. Meanwhile, Strickland dropped an illegal mailer:

Tony Strickland has reached a new low in his dishonest campaign against Hannah-Beth Jackson. Yesterday, voters in the 19th District received a mailing from Strickland’s campaign titled “Hannah-Beth Jackson’s Economic Plan.” Inside, the mailing contained Strickland’s predictable false charges about Hannah-Beth Jackson and taxes.

The mailing was clearly designed to look like it was coming from Hannah-Beth Jackson’s campaign.

Expect an ugly last two weeks.

CA-46: Another Tie Race

The Capitol Weekly reports, in an article about dimming GOP prospects, that Dana Rohrabacher is in a world of trouble.

The third contest is in the 46th Congressional District in Orange County, where incumbent Republican Dana Rohrabacher faces Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook.

According to GOP sources, internal polling shows the difference between Rohrabacher and Cook, the mayor of Huntington Beach, to be within the margin of error, although Rohrabacher has heavily outspent Cook. Hoffenblum believes Rohrabacher faces “possibly the strongest Democrat to run against him since the current district lines were drawn in 2001.”

I don't think it's accurate to say that Rohrabacher has heavily outspent Cook. He only spent a paltry $38,000 in the third quarter, though that may be ramping up now. I don't think the NRCC is going to have a lot of money to help him either, though they're making noises about it.

The strapped National Republican Congressional Committee, which at the end of August had $14 million in the bank, compared with $54 million for the Democrats, last week took out an $8 million loan to fund races in the final days of the campaigns. With scant resources, the fight for dollars is intense.

GOP insiders believe some funds may flow to Rohrabacher in the 46th C.D., but that money for any of the others is problematic. Democrats declined to say whether Cook would get last-minute cash from national Democrats.

Calitics Match candidate Debbie Cook is a better Democrat. She supports the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq, quality health care for every American, and a post-carbon economy with green energy pushing out the dirty fuels of the past. She would be an amazing legislator. This can be done. She needs your support. Donate here. I will be down in the district over the weekend to get a report.

And don't just believe me about all this, check out theCook Political Report.

Here's yet more evidence that the Dems are poised for huge gains in Congress: The Cook Report has released a new set of updated rankings on 25 House races -- and all 25 are shifts in the Dems' direction.

CA-03 Dan Lungren (R) - Solid Republican to Likely Republican

CA-04 OPEN, Doolittle (R) - Likely Republican to Lean Republican

CA-46 Dana Rohrabacher (R) - Solid Republican to Likely Republican

CA-50 Brian Bilbray (R) - Solid Republican to Lean Republican

That's right, Charlie Brown, Nick Leibham and Bill Durston are looking very impressive. And Charlie Cook is being very conservative with these picks. We have the momentum, now we have to go out there and pull it off.