CA Congressional Fundraising A Go-Go

Today is the deadline for Congressional incumbents and challengers to declare their fundraising totals for the second quarter of 2009, and some numbers on the California candidates jump out. If I write "incomplete," that's because their FEC report hasn't popped up yet. I'll fill in when they become available:

We'll start with the special election in CA-10:
John Garamendi: $300,000 raised, $260,000 CoH, $54,000 debt
Mark DeSaulnier: incomplete $212,000 raised, $136,000 CoH, $77,000 debt
Joan Buchanan: incomplete $64,000 raised, $179,000 CoH, $308,000 debt
Anthony Woods: $105,000 raised, $65,000 CoH
Adriel Hampton: incomplete

Waiting on more info on this one. John Garamendi's number came from 350 people, almost $1,000 a head. That suggests no grassroots fundraising base. Anthony Woods had over twice as many donors, who could be tapped again. UPDATE: OK, this is interesting. Joan Buchanan raised a fairly paltry amount considering the primary is in six weeks, but she took out a $250,000 loan and has a significant amount of debt. She seems to be blowing through operating expenses too. Likewise, Mark DeSaulnier, who raised a decent amount, has over half of his cash on hand in debt. And I missed that John Garamendi has $50,000 in debt as well. Suddenly, Anthony Woods has more debt-free cash on hand than anyone in the field but Garamendi.

CA-03:
Gary Davis: $34,000 raised, $30,000 CoH
Dr. Amerish Bera: $288,000 raised, $286,000 CoH
Dan Lungren (inc.): incomplete $233,000 raised, $322,000 CoH

That is an eye-popping number for Amerish Bera, and lest you see it as a doctor self-funding, only $4,800 came from the candidate. I was shocked by that total. We'll see what Dan Lungren ends up raising later today, but it's entirely possible that Bera will have MORE cash on hand than the incumbent (Lungren only had $121,000 on hand at the end of April, with $12,000 in debts). Wow. UPDATE: So Bera outraised Lungren, but he ekes out a cash on hand lead. As an incumbent, however, that's a weak performance.

CA-45:
Steve Pougnet: $201,000 raised, $203,000 CoH
Mary Bono Mack (inc): $166,000 raised, $448,000 CoH

Steve Pougnet outraised the incumbent in Q2, which is quite impressive. Mary Bono Mack starts out with a bigger war chest, so he has some work to do, but this is an excellent start, and I think Pougnet has a natural fundraising base that will only expand once his story gets out.

CA-44:
Bill Hedrick: $65,000 raised, $66,000 CoH
Ken Calvert (inc.): incomplete $407,000 raised, $384,000 CoH

Certainly an improvement over the first quarter for Bill Hedrick, and all of the money came from Southern California, which means he has a solid fundraising and volunteer base locally. He needs to spread that out nationally to maximize his potential in this winnable race.

CA-26:
Russ Warner: $60,000 raised, $58,000 CoH
David Dreier (inc.): $138,000 raised, $872,000 CoH

Believe it or not, Dreier actually had a much bigger war chest last cycle. Russ Warner needs to do better to be competitive, but he's actually in a slightly better position than two years ago.

CA-48:
Beth Krom: $76,000 raised, $98,000 CoH
John Campbell (inc.): $223,000 raised, $470,000 CoH

This was a tough quarter for Krom, with the tragic death of her son taking up a lot of time in the final weeks. Campbell ramped up his fundraising a bit after Krom beat him in the last quarter.

CA-50:
Francine Busby: $160,000 raised, $136,000 CoH
Tracy Emblem: $22,000 raised, $15,000 CoH
Brian Bilbray (inc.): incomplete $325,000 raised, $388,000 CoH

A solid quarter of fundraising for Francine Busby, notwithstanding that police action at one of her fundraisers while guests were pepper sprayed. UPDATE: Brian Bilbray had a good quarter.

CA-24:
Elton Gallegly (inc.): $42,000 raised, $831,000 CoH

The field is still getting together in this race, but I wanted to see Elton Gallegly's fundraising output, which is somewhat pathetic. He does have enough of a war chest that he doesn't necessarily need to get moving on that yet, however.

UPDATE the last: Swing State Project has a full roundup with a number of other interesting tidbits.

• In CA-04, Tom McClintock raised a bundle - $341,000 - but he still has over $100,000 in outstanding debt and only $245,000 CoH. Some fiscal conservative.

• In CA-10, one Republican is showing financial viability, David Harmer, with a $175,000 haul (but that's based on the first six months, not just the quarter). He has $144,000 CoH and $17,000 in outstanding debt. And his ideological viability in that district is, shall we say, suspect, though he is likely to reach a runoff.

• In CA-11, which I think is safe, Jerry McNerney raised $288,000 and has $519,000 cash on hand. One of his potential opponents, Brad Goehring, would seem to have a good financial position with $259,000 CoH, but he only raised $14,000 for the quarter and has $250,000 in debt due to a massive loan. The same with Jon Del Arroz, who guaranteed a huge loan for himself and has as much in debt as he does in cash on hand. These guys are wasting money, in my opinion.

• I added Ken Calvert's numbers in CA-44. Clearly the NRCC is protecting him by bolstering his fundraising.

• CA-47 is on the fringe of being competitive, but Van Tran had a good quarter, beating Loretta Sanchez (barely) in fundraising:

Sanchez: $242,000 raised, $714,000 CoH
Tran: $253,000 raised, $251,000 CoH, $10,000 debt

Tran gave himself $5,500 to boost his total. And Loretta has a pretty large war chest from prior years.

2010 CA House Races Roundup

In 2007-08, I wrote a monthly series of House race roundups here in California, taking a look at the races with the highest potential to change members of Congress. This cycle, there are promises from the national Democrats that they will pay attention to a number of seats in California held by Republicans, and with the statewide races at the top of the ticket looking favorable for Democrats, and Republican registration collapsing throughout the state, in theory we should see some more movement. But many of these elements were true the past two cycles, amounting to little. Because it's a statewide officer election year, I will also do a statewide races roundup at a later time. But for now, let's take a look at the seats most likely to flip in 2010, starting with seats currently held by Democrats, few of which are in play. In addition to those "threatened" by Republicans, I'm including two seats where I've heard rumblings about primary challenges to incumbents.

A word on the notations. PVI refers to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. I've also included the Presidential performance from last year and the particular Congressional performance, where applicable. That information is available for the whole nation at this link.

DEMOCRATIC-HELD SEATS

1. CA-11. Incumbent: Jerry McNerney. PVI: R+1. 2008 General: Obama 54-44. 2008 Congress: McNerney 55-45. I keep seeing this seat on Republican target lists, and the NRCC has dropped robocalls in this district, but I really think the Republicans would be wasting their money. Jerry McNerney actually slightly outperformed Barack Obama in the district in beating the hapless Dean Andal. Andal won't bother with a challenge this time around, and while former Assemblyman Guy Houston has been mentioned as a candidate, I think McNerney has solidified his position and raised enough money to scare off any challengers. SAFE DEM.

2. CA-36. Incumbent: Jane Harman. PVI: D+12. 2008 General: Obama 64-34. 2008 Congress: Harman 69-31. The recent Jane Harman scandals, documented here at Calitics, are really not the only reason she is seen as ripe for a primary challenge: there is an impression in the district that she may retire, with local electeds licking their chops. But if she does run, she will have challengers. Marcy Winograd, who got 38% of the vote in a 2006 primary with Harman, has announced an exploratory committee. And Crooks and Liars blogger John Amato, advancing a story in The Hill, has emerged to say he's considering a run. I talked to John last night and he appears to be serious. Harman has more money than God, and if she truly wants to stay in Congress she won't mind spending it, so this is a long shot. But national progressive groups think that CA-36 can do better than "the best Republican in the Democratic Party." The question is whether local activists will agree; I'm not sure they're quite there yet. SAFE DEM; LIKELY SAFE HARMAN.

3. CA-37. Incumbent: Laura Richardson. PVI: D+26. 2008 General: Obama 80-19. 2008 Congress: Richardson 75-25. If progressives really want to find a bad, vulnerable incumbent, they could look directly to the east of Jane Harman's district. Laura Richardson is a bad lawmaker, who voted for the FISA Amendments Act and other conservative pieces of legislation. What's more, she's an embarrassment to the district, having defaulted on eight houses since 2004 and, reportedly, having used her position in Congress to rescind the sale of her foreclosed home and return it to her. Her monetary acumen extends to her campaign finances. Unlike most incumbents, Richardson is currently $300,000 in debt in her campaign account. This seat is ripe for a young, fresh progressive who has a cleaner record and a better commitment to the district's needs. Nobody has yet emerged, but they should. SAFE DEM; LIKELY SAFE RICHARDSON.

REPUBLICAN-HELD SEATS

1. CA-44. Incumbent: Ken Calvert. PVI: R+6. 2008 General: Obama 49.5-48.6. 2008 Congress: Calvert 51-49. Bill Hedrick shocked the political world by almost beating corrupt Rep. Ken Calvert in a race that fell off of everyone's radar screen. Hedrick just announced that he's running again to finish the job, and I had a chance to chat with him at the CDP Convention in Sacramento. He said that "something is occurring in the Inland Empire" - a combination of the bad economy, demographic shifts and a general distaste for Republicans - that bodes well for his campaign. Hedrick actually won by 5% in the Riverside County portion of the district, which is where more voters reside; but he lost the southern Orange County portion by a healthy margin. The registration figures in the OC part of the district is 90%; in Riverside, it's 50%. Clearly there is potential to increase registration in Riverside and overwhelm Calvert with numbers. Hedrick is a solid antiwar progressive, who supports a modern Pecora Commission to investigate the financial crisis, real refinancing options for people facing foreclosure, robust stimulus to get the economy moving again, and an end to American occupations abroad (he has two sons and two daughters-in-law who, between them, have 10 tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan). Clearly he's going to run on Calvert's support of TARP, which should be interesting. The fear is that Hedrick won't have the funds to compete. He raised only $150,000 total last cycle, and with this race now on the radar screen, he'll need to do better. But Hedrick appears to have a plan for expanding the donor base and using his army of volunteers to make up the gap and beat Ken Calvert in 2010. LEAN REP.

2. CA-03. Incumbent: Dan Lungren. PVI: R+6. 2008 General: Obama 49.3-48.8. 2008 Congress: Lungren 49-44. This is a ripe opportunity in search of a Democratic candidate. In 2008 Bill Durston held Dan Lungren under 50% in a campaign that only got the attention it deserved at the last minute. Demographically speaking, more and more people in the district have registered Democratic in recent years, and if Durston was running again, he would be a top challenger. Unfortunately, Durston is unlikely to run owing to medical issues. Actvisits have tried to entice John Garamendi into abandoning his CA-10 bid and run in this district, where he's actually one of the largest landowners. But that also appears unlikely. It should be noted that there is an announced candidate here, Dr. Amerish Bera. But the hot rumor at the Convention was that Phil Angelides would enter the race, making it a matchup of former statewide gubernatorial candidates. I later heard that rumor was probably bunk. But this should happen! Angelides, who has become an evangelist on energy and climate issues, has a huge donor list he could activate, a progressive policy profile, and actually matured as a candidate (not that you would know it from the media) in 2006. He would bring name ID to this race like nobody else. It's time to draft Phil. LEAN REP.

3. CA-50. Incumbent: Brian Bilbray. PVI: R+3. 2008 General: Obama 51-47. 2008 Congress: Bilbray 50-45. As you can see, Obama took this district by a decent margin, and Bilbray barely hit 50%. Francine Busby, who ran in 2004 and 2006 and then took a cycle off, has returned to run for Congress, and she had a bit of visibility at the Convention. Busby has OK name ID, but this district has always seemed to me to have a ceiling for the Democratic candidate around 45%. I'm happy to be wrong, of course, and hopefully Busby has learned from her past races and is able to break through. Of course, Bilbray is sure to resurrect the “You don't need papers for voting” comment that hurt her in a special election in 2006 (which was twisted by the right, incidentally). LIKELY REP.

4. CA-26. Incumbent: David Dreier. PVI: R+3. 2008 General: Obama 51-47. 2008 Congress: Dreier 53-40. The profile of CA-50 and CA-26 are similar. And in both, a Democratic challenger will take a third run at the incumbent. Russ Warner announced at the Red to Blue dinner that he will run again and build on his efforts against David Dreier in 2008. In a conversation with Warner, he told me about meeting David Dreier a few weeks ago for the first time. Dreier asked him, "Are you running against me again?" Warner replied, "You ran against me, David." Dreier said, "But you lost." Warner: "Oh yeah? You're the one who spent $3 million dollars. Who lost?" Indeed, Warner did succeed in draining Dreier's war chest. Unlike last cycle, Dreier comes into the race with only $700,000 cash on hand. Obviously these seats require two or three-cycle efforts, so it's good to see Warner back. And with national help, who knows? LIKELY REP.

5. CA-48. Incumbent: John Campbell. PVI: R+8. 2008 General: Obama 49.3-48.6. 2008 Congress: Campbell 56-41. John Campbell, who by the way loves him some Atlas Shrugged, is kind of a nonentity in Congress, and apparently doesn't show himself much at home either. Steve Young has done yeoman work building the party in this area in recent years. And now, Beth Krom, an Irvine City Councilwoman, will run to win this seat. Krom is battle-tested - she's had 5 races over the last decade - and she has capably performed in the largest city in the district. Krom actually outraised John Campbell in the first quarter of 2009, and she looks to build on that success. We had a nice interaction with Krom at the CDP Convention, and she led off with a classic line: "This district has the largest cluster of diverse cultures in Orange County, it's 30% Asian and East Indian, and John Campbell has never spoken to somebody who doesn't look like him." She talked about her affordable housing strategies in Irvine, and the green strategies that have won national acclaim. Folks in Orange County told me she's the best candidate they've had to go up against a Republican incumbent in years. Watch this race. LIKELY REP.

6. CA-45. Incumbent: Mary Bono Mack. PVI: R+3. 2008 General: Obama 51-47. 2008 Congress: Bono Mack 58-42. I thought Julie Bornstein really underperformed in this district in 2008, but Mary Bono Mack is kind of a slippery character. She always adds enough votes to her resume to give the appearance of moderation (sometimes by voting for right-wing motions to recommit and then voting for the final bill so it looks like she's a supporter), and given that she's married to a Floridian and lives in Washington, she rarely comes back to the district. This time around, Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet, a gay father of two, has announced a run, and he will focus on "jobs, jobs, jobs." This area shares the profile of a lot of California, with high unemployment and lots of foreclosures. Pougnet's challenge will be to actually get Bono Mack on the record. LIKELY REP.

7. CA-46. Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher. PVI: R+6. 2008 General: McCain 50-48. 2008 Congress: Rohrabacher 53-43. Dana Rohrabacher remains crazy, but he managed to survive a major challenge from Debbie Cook in 2008. Cook has shown no indication that she will run again, and because this seat is not one of the eight "Obama Republican" races that national Democrats have targeted, it is unlikely they will offer much in recruitment if Cook looks elsewhere. Still, if Cook does change her mind, this race would move back onto the radar screen. SAFE REP.

8. CA-04. Incumbent: Tom McClintock. PVI: R+10. 2008 General: McCain 54-44. 2008 Congress: McClintock 50.3-49.7. Obviously the chances in this race rise or fall on the entry of Charlie Brown into the race. Brown was in attendance at the CDP Convention, and he publicly mulled a run at an event with Gavin Newsom in Placer County recently. So he hasn't closed his mind to the option. Meanwhile, McClintock has been as obstructionist and nutty as you'd expect. I particularly enjoyed his Baghdad Bob claim that California didn't have a water shortage. Locally, sources tell me that McClintock is not well-liked by his fellow Republican electeds, who aren't getting their phone calls returned. But it all hinges on Brown. SAFE REP.

9. CA-24. Incumbent: Elton Gallegly. PVI: R+4. 2008 General: Obama 51-48. 2008 Congress: Gallegly 58-42. This seat has been trending to the Democrats for some time, but the right candidate to challenge Elton Gallegly has yet to emerge. Last year Marta Jorgensen raised very little in her race and still took 42%. Gallegly is always a threat to retire - he actually did it in 2006 before being coaxed back - so that option remains as well. Small businessman Shawn Stern has announced so far. SAFE REP.

10. CA-25. Incumbent: Buck McKeon. PVI: R+6. 2008 General: Obama 49-48. 2008 Congress: McKeon 58-42. Much like CA-24, this expansive district his been trending Democratic. In fact, no seat has a closer registration gap that's currently held by a Republican. But the Democratic Party infrastructure just seems to be lacking out here. Jackie Conaway raised I think $10,000 total for her entire race last year. She still managed 42% of the vote against Buck McKeon. There is certainly a profile of a Democratic candidate that could attract serious votes out here. But that person does not yet exist. Meanwhile, McKeon thinks Barack Obama broke into his house, or something. SAFE REP.

D-Trip "Targets" 8 House Seats - I'll Believe It When I See It

State Democrats are buzzing about this weekend's Carla Marinucci article entitled "California Dems target 8 GOP districts", which claims that Republican voter registration is dropping fast, providing a major opportunity to pick up Congressional seats in 2010.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has targeted 35 districts across the country represented by Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives - including eight in California - that were won by Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential election, said Jennifer Crider, the committee spokeswoman.

The Democrats plan increased appeals to voters in those areas and will make aggressive efforts to recruit Democratic candidates to run against the Republican incumbents, she said [...]

The vulnerable California districts with Republican representatives that were won by Obama are those of Reps. Dan Lungren of Gold River (Sacramento County), Mary Bono-Mack of Palm Springs, David Dreier of San Dimas (Los Angeles County), Elton Gallegly of Thousand Oaks (Ventura County), Brian Bilbray of Solana Beach (San Diego County), John Campbell of Newport Beach (Orange County), Ken Calvert of Riverside and Howard "Buck" McKeon of Santa Clarita (Los Angeles County), the committee says.

It would be nice if I thought any of this would work. First of all, the registration changes didn't just spring up in December 2008. These trends have been occurring for some time, and were all present during the last election. Despite this, we had a candidate in CA-25 (McKeon) who spent less than $10,000 or her entire campaign. The candidate in CA-24 (Gallegly) won her primary because of her ballot designation and without spending any significant money. In the races where we managed to compete, our candidates significantly underperformed the top of the ticket, and in most cases underperformed Barbara Boxer's performance in 2004, when a less dominant John Kerry was at the top of the ticket.

I don't think there are that many other people who have followed California congressional races closer than I have, and I have to say that we simply suck at elections in these kinds of races out here in California. The state party is dysfunctional at best and downright criminal at worst. Put it this way: we had the same chance to win all these seats in 2008. Nate Silver, making a separate point, provides a list of the 30 districts where Obama won between 50 and 52 percent of the vote. As you'll see, we did extremely well in those seats, except for in California.

Barack Obama won 51 percent of the vote in NY-20 on November 4th. How did congressional candidates perform in other districts where he received between, say, 50 and 52 percent of the vote? Again, we see essentially an even split; Republicans won 16 of 30 such districts and Democrats won 14:

Won by Republicans (16): CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-44, CA-45, CA-50, FL-10, FL-18, MI-4, MN-3, NE-2, NJ-7, NY-23, VA-4, WI-1, WI-6

Won by Democrats (14): FL-22, KS-3, MI-1, MI-7, MN-1, NC-2, NJ-3, NY-1, NY-19, NY-20*, NY-24, TX-23, VA-2, WA-3

Winning percentage in these seats in states other than CA: 58.3%
Winning percentage in CA: 0.0%

By the way, the other two districts not mentioned above that are now being "targeted"? CA-03 (Lungren) was 49-49 Obama, and CA-48 (Campbell) was also 49-49 Obama. Heck, even CA-46 was only 50-48 McCain. Obama got 46% in CA-19 (Radanovich), where there was no Democratic candidate, and 47% in CA-40 (Royce).

Some would argue that, properly resourced, these seats would suddenly become very winnable. I give you CA-50, where Nick Leibham consistently beat Brian Bilbray in fundraising and maxed out at the 45% ceiling on Democrats in that district.

CA-44 is somewhat winnable because Bill Hedrick came close in '08 and is running again. We lost our best candidate in CA-03, Bill Durston, and everywhere else, I'm just extremely dubious, because the state party has systematically psyched itself out of winning these seats (thanks to the Faustian bargain of incumbency-protected gerrymandering designed by... imminent state party chair John Burton), and the commitment at the national level has been known to wane. We've left dozens of winnable elections on the table the past two cycles, dramatically underperforming the nation. A little DCCC money won't change that.

CA Congressional Campaign Update: The State of the Race With One Week To Go

There's so much going on in this bounty of close races, it's hard to follow it all as just lil' ol' me and without a full-time staff. But clearly, California is terribly broken because there are no competitive seats and so we must change the redistricting process and re-gerrymander competitiveness into them. Right? Below, I offer an update on every seat that's even reasonably close. I'll get to the Assembly and Senate races later today or tomorrow.

• CA-11. Not much going on here. Jerry McNerney's lead is stable and he still has a huge cash lead in the October 15 numbers (I didn't do a full report on them because at this stage you either have the money or you don't). It doesn't appear that the national Republicans are getting involved in this race in any meaningful way. The SF Chronicle endorsed McNerney over the weekend. SAFE DEM.

• CA-04. As I reported yesterday, the poll numbers are looking solid for Charlie Brown in his effort to flip this Northern California-area seat. And Tom McClintock is out of money. Some fiscal conservative. LEAN DEM. (I wanted to go Likely but didn't want to jinx it)

• CA-50. This was the only other seat that wound up on the infamous GOP "Death List." The national Republicans wrote off CA-04 and considered this one to be the next closest race out there, adding that "if there's a wave, (this seat) could be in trouble." Well guess what, there's a wave. Trying to save his skin, Brian Bilbray is turning to the issue of Congressional earmarks, putting out a mailer that claims Nick Leibham would stuff appropriations bills with pork. This is extremely unlikely for a freshman Congresscritter to even be able to do - normally the incumbent runs on his ability to bring home the bacon. In fact, Bilbray requested $38 million in pork this year. Anyone thinking earmarks are the scourge of the federal government is not serious about the budget process, and this shows to me that Bilbray is trying to throw up a smokescreen. He's scared. TOSS UP.

• CA-03. Check out Dan Lungren whining because his Vietnam Vet opponent Bill Durston bothered to point out that Lungren never served but is eager to send American men and women into battle to do so.

"I'm just a little fed up with this guy and his attitude accusing me of being unpatriotic," Lungren said in a telephone interview today. "There is not just McCarthyism on the right. There evidently is McCarthyism on the left. All I ask is what they said at the McCarthy hearings years ago: 'Have you no honor, Sir?'"

The Republican incumbent was irked when Durston questioned his lack of military service in Thursday night's candidate forum in Carmichael and followed up with a television advertisement and a mailer attacking Lungren as someone "who never served in the military and has never provided public documentation to show why."

The television ad says in part: "Have you seen the dishonest mailer from Dan Lungren accusing decorated Marine Corps Combat Veteran Dr. Bill Durston of not supporting our troops? The same Dan Lungren who never served himself, who never documented how he got a medical draft deferment."

In the Carmichael forum, Durston complained about a Lungren mailer questioning his support for the military and chided the congressman by saying: "Dan Lungren may have joined the Cub Scouts. But I joined the United States Marines at the height of the Vietnam War. I served in combat and was decorated for courage under fire... . While I was fighting in the jungles of Vietnam, Lungren was sitting out the war on a medical draft deferment, serving as the chair of youth for Nixon."

Look, Lungren clearly started this fight by claiming that Durston was an antiwar DFH for wanting to get out of Iraq. If he can't take the heat when Durston makes perfectly factual statements about him, maybe he shouldn't be in politics. Meanwhile, John Garamendi endorsed Dr. Durston over the weekend, and called Lungren "a draft dodger." Hey, politics ain't beanbag. SLIGHT LEAN REPUBLICAN.

• CA-46. Former Republican Congressman and Presidential candidate Pete McCloskey came down to Orange County over the weekend to endorse Debbie Cook and rally the troops. I'm hearing from the campaign that Debbie's recent fundraising has been fantastic and their targeted mailers and TV ads are up and running. Dana Rohrabacher had better brace himself for that progressive wave; this race is going to be tight. SLIGHT LEAN REPUBLICAN.

• CA-45. This race between Mary Bono Mack and Julie Bornstein has been much quieter than I expected. Bono Mack has taken some heat in the large LGBT community in the district by calling them "a group of people," but her large campaign war chest and public invisibility has made her a difficult target. She's avoided Bornstein almost completely in the campaign, and has run deceptive ads linking Bornstein to Fannie and Freddie, which as we know created the WHOLE FINANCIAL CRISIS. I think increased turnout is going to be a problem for Mack but she may just skate by. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

• CA-26. The problem with Russ Warner's campaign was always going to be overcoming that huge pot of money David Dreier was sitting on. This forced him to spend more and more time raising funds and less talking to voters. Howie Klein at Blue America is trying to come to Warner's rescue with a pretty salacious mailer hitting Dreier for his, well, open secret. You can go over to Down With Tyranny and check it out. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

• CA-52. Duncan D. Hunter and Mike Lumpkin debated last week and it was pretty spirited, with Lumpkin attacking Hunter for being a legacy hire and a "Congressman's kid." I don't know if that'll cut it in this district, especially with Hunter having a serious cash advantage, though I keep hearing about polls showing this race close. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

• CA-42. Ed Chau has gotten around to running his first ad of the cycle, focusing on Gary Miller's corruption. This is another race buoyed by internal polling that shows it close, but I'll believe it when I see it. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

• CA-01: This race against incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) is not even close, but I had to add this one because of this amazing robocall:

Zane Starkewolf, candidate for CA-1, and running as a "green republication" decided to launch an ILLEGAL robo call (all robo calls are illegal in CA) with the following transcript: Audio here.

"Mike Thompson has been a baaaaaad boy. We all said no to the bailout but Thompson backed Bush. Just like he did with the Patriot act, uhhhhhh, vote YESSSSSSSSS ! for Zane."

He actually had to send out a press release DEFENDING this call. Hysterical.

More California Q3 Numbers

CA-04:
Charlie Brown: raised $539K, $456K cash on hand. GREAT numbers.
Tom McClintock: raised $978K, but spent a ton, and has only $94,000 left, with $110,000 in debts. He is BROKE. Brown has an infinite lead in CoH.

CA-03:
Bill Durston: raised $149K, $145K CoH.
Dan Lungren: raised $173K (wow, Durston almost outraised him), $680K CoH. Dr. Bill is going to need some help.

CA-26:
Russ Warner: raised $289K, which is great, but he's spent a lot early. He has $119K CoH.
David Dreier: raised $255K. Wow, Warner outraised Dreier. He still has $1.7 million in the bank, and he doesn't seem to be using the money. He only spent $345K in Q3. I don't know if it's for leadership purposes or what, but he has a hell of a war chest that he's not using.

CA-11:
Jerry McNerney: raised $601K, $1.02 million CoH.
Dean Andal: raised $345K, with $850K CoH. Some prize recruit.

CA-50:
Brian Bilbray: This was the number I was waiting for. He raised $262K and has $382K CoH. OK, Nick Leibham didn't just beat Bilbray in Q2, he destroyed him. And the cash on hand is virtually even. Wow.

CA-46:
Dana Rohrabacher: Drum roll... raised $148K. OK, he beat Debbie Cook for once. The CoH is $497K, but much like Dreier, he's spent next to nothing. $35K in the quarter.

Overall, these are good numbers. Lots of our candidates have the resources they need. Keep up the pressure.

California Campaign Update

Things are happening very quickly in the most hotly contested campaigns in California. Here's an update:

• CA-04: Watching himself falling behind in the race to replace John Doolittle, perennial candidate Tom McClintock decided to borrow one of his predeccesor's smear campaigns and release an ad claiming that Charlie Brown dishonored servicemen by appearing at an anti-war rally.



The idea that wearing a camouflage jacket constitutes being "in uniform" is ridiculous, and so is the idea that a retired military officer has no free speech rights. But the idea is to smear Charlie as some kind of radical leftist and anti-military, despite Brown's long record of supporting veterans and McClintock's longer record voting against them.

The ensuing press conference put on by the McClintock campaign was a wild affair.

SACRAMENTO - A press conference on congressional candidate Charlie Brown's actions in 2005 at the home of an anti-war display nearly descended into conflict itself, with disruptions before, during and after the event and a near-appearance by police officers [...]

But before the event even began, a handful of Brown supporters - accompanied by Brown's campaign manager, Todd Stenhouse - were asked to leave so that they wouldn't cause a disruption.

One man loudly protested that as a military veteran and the father of an active-duty U.S. soldier, he felt he could stay. "This is not Russia," he said.

McClintock campaign consultant John Feliz and Stenhouse eventually got the man to agree to leave, but not before security at the Hyatt hotel where the press conference took place made calls to Sacramento police to remove the man [...]

But a third man who was with the veterans pointed out that Brown was within his First Amendment right to do so, prompting Feliz to ask him to leave as well, while also saying Brown should re-enlist and face a court martial for his actions.

The man, who gave his name as Bret Sherlock, said afterward that he attended because he was tired of non-veterans like McClintock smearing veterans like Brown.

"Did he do anything illegal?" Sherlock said of Brown, adding that if anyone should be able to protest the war, it should be Brown, as both a veteran and a father of a soldier who has served four tours of duty in Iraq.

McClintock campaign spokesman Bill George said the video came from a "concerned citizen." Neither McClintock nor Brown appeared at the press conference.

After the press conference concluded, Stenhouse tried to give McClintock's campaign a pledge to join a Brown program that donates 5 percent of Brown's campaign contributions to nonprofit community groups that work with charities.

Feliz angrily took it and threw it down without looking at it.

They don't want to talk about issues. So McClintock tries to smear a decorated veteran to win an election. Typical.

• CA-11: We've talked before about Dean Andal's embarrassing fall from Congressional contender to also-ran, but it's just getting worse and worse. The questions over Andal's role in a botched construction project at a local community college have continued, and he's also been caught lying about his claim that he's raised more money than any Congressional challenger in the country. Now his mailers are hitting mailboxes throughout the district, and they've been revealed as lies.

What it says: "Instead of taking action to fix America's energy crisis, ruling Democrats shut down Congress this month (August) for a five-week vacation — with Democratic Congressman Jerry McNerney casting the deciding vote to adjourn."

Is it true? No. The vote was 213-212 in favor of adjournment. Under Andal's argument, all 213 members of Congress who voted in favor of the annual summer break were the "deciding vote."

Besides, party leaders don't let freshmen decide anything.

It's almost sad how bad Andal is doing. The NRCC isn't even spending in the district.

• CA-50: The latest registration numbers for the district are in, and while Republicans continue to hold an 11-point lead, the trend is in Democrats' favor. Republicans are also perilously close to the 40% registration line, under which it becomes harder for them to win, as more independent voters lean Democratic. I don't know if Paris Hilton ads and chicken suits will get it done for Nick Leibham, whose campaign is clearly just trying to get in the headlines. But there are lines of attack on Bilbray, particularly over his single-minded focus on immigration and not the pocketbook issues that affect people's lives, though Bilbray is enough of a nut to say that the two are functionally equivalent.

• CA-26: There's another smear campaign going on in this race, where David Dreier and the NRCC are trying to hold onto this seat by dredging up old news about Russ Warner and old tax liens and business license payments. These are incidents from as far back as 1992, and Warner's business license has since been reinstated. It's a pretty negative mailer considering that Dreier sounds so confident about victory. Warner is now out with his own mailer highlighting Dreier's many ties to special interests (like the $200,000 he's received from oil and gas companies). The fact that Dreier and Bush agree 94% of the time makes an appearance as well. The fact that this race is getting so nasty so early suggests that Dreier has seen some polling that has him worried.

• AD-80: Manuel Perez has snagged the endorsement of the Sierra Club. They also have an ad up on the air, which is notable for an Assembly candidate.

California Campaign Update

A mini-report:

• CA-04: I love this video from the Charlie Brown campaign. They traveled 412 miles down to Thousand Oaks to talk to constituents of California's Alan Keyes, State Senator and professional office-chaser Tom McClintock. It's really funny and drives the point home that McClintock is a do-nothing at best and a dangerous radical at worst:



And get this, McClintock is now running on the state budget, the Republican version of which has a 19% approval rating. That's like putting Nixon, Bush and Cheney in your campaign ad.

• CA-26, CA-45: Not one but two! Both Russ Warner AND Julie Bornstein have been added to the DCCC "Races To Watch" list. This is a prelude to being listed as Red To Blue candidates. If the D-Trip comes through with some money, maybe threatened incumbents like Dreier will have to stop mouthing off about other GOP races and start paying attention to their own.

• CA-46: When John Fund tries to target a Dem challenger, you know something's going wrong. Fund is sounding the alarm on Debbie Cook, as Dana Rohrabacher tries to greenwash himself with a scheme to build solar-power plants on federal land without environmental impact studies. Fund says that Cook called this "an extreme position," but he chopped the quote:

Democratic challenger and Mayor of Huntington Beach Debbie Cook agrees that the process of approving solar power plants is sluggish and needs to be sped up, but not at the expense of the environment.

"This is just another extreme position by Dana Rohrabacher. What we need to do is come up with a balanced approach that streamlines these projects, because they're critically important to our energy future, but at the same time recognizes the impacts to the environment," Cook said.

Rohrabacher's doing the equivalent of saying he'll grow jobs by hiring 10,000 federally funded serial killers, and then wondering why everyone's worried about the mass death ("You wanted jobs, didn't you?"). There's a sensible way to free up the bottlenecks and a rash one. Rohrabacher chose door #2.

• CA-42: The internal poll results released by Ed Chau are intriguing (showing him up 44-38 after a mix of positive and negative information released on the candidates), but I don't think candidates who have minimal bank accounts should do polls stating the numbers after a mix of information if they don't have the money to get that information out. But if Gary Miller truly has a 28% re-elect number as the poll states, he could be in trouble.

California Campaign Update

I simply have not had the time to do a full update of all the Congressional and legislative campaigns. And sadly, it doesn't look like that time will be forthcoming soon. So I think I'll do mini-updates where possible.

• CA-46: Debbie Cook has been endorsed by DFA (Democracy for America). Jim Dean, the Chair of DFA, said in a statement, "Debbie Cook has been a grassroots champion for over 20 years and has a proven record of success in the private sector and as a public servant ... Debbie Cook is running because she's a committed advocate and activist who fights for her constituents and delivers results."

In the past, DFA has been able to move some resources into districts, so we'll see if they're going that route in this race. DFA has also recently endorsed Bill Hedrick (CA-44).

• CA-26: Russ Warner's campaign is announcing via email that the DCCC named his race as "one to watch." That doesn't mean they'll get any money, but it puts them in the queue if the race tightens. Unfortunately, the DCCC has kind of a deliberate style, where they hoard their money for the races they know are toss-ups, and then wait until the very last minute for these emerging races, sometimes beyond the point at which that money can be effective. I understand the strategy but it wouldn't be smart from Warner's perspective to bank on any help from Washington in his race against David Dreier. He needs his own resources as well as money from California lawmaker's PACs.

Which reminds me, California Democrats, it's time to use it or lose it. We have a number of races where the challenger can win if they have enough resources, and in the seats where an incumbent has token or no opposition and a huge war chest, that money should not be sitting in an account somewhere. Help our own candidates! Expect more pressure on this very soon.

• CA-03: It's kind of fun watching Dan Lungren try to humina-humina his way out of supporting Prop. 8. He really has no idea what he's talking about. It would be bad enough if a citizen of the state had this atrocious an understanding of basic civics, but this guy is not only a US Representative but a former state Attorney General!

• AD-80: The GOP tried to get Manuel Perez' occupational status as an "educator" thrown off the ballot, but they failed. Now he has received the endorsement of the highest-ranking law enforcement official in Imperial County, D.A. Gilbert Otero. Considering that his opponent, Gary Jeandron, is the former police chief of Palm Springs, I'd consider this endorsement to be significant.

CA-26: New poll shows Warner well-positioned to beat Dreier

We've been hearing rumblings about this poll for a while, but it's finally been released. In the 26th District, where Bush rubber stamp David Dreier hasn't had a legitimate opponent practically since being elected in 1980, Russ Warner is absolutely within striking difference with 88 days to the election.

The poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, has all kinds of interesting information. IN the baseline poll, Dreier does not reach 50%

CA-26 (GQRR, margin of error +/- 4.9%)
Dreier 49
Warner 37

The sample size is pretty small, but Dreier not breaking 50 after being the Representative for 28 years is significant. What's more, after information about each candidate is delivered to those polled, the numbers change dramatically.

Dreier 47
Warner 44

Other significant findings:

• Independent voters in the initial poll, before bios, support Warner 49-32.

• 63 percent disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president, with half of all voters (50 percent) strongly disapproving.

• Only 45 percent of voters say they approve of the job Dreier is doing as Congressman, while 33 percent disapprove.

• Nearly four out of five voters (78 percent) say the country is off on the wrong track.

• Barack Obama is in a statistical tie with John McCain in the district, 44 percent to 47 percent, and their favorables are identical (46 fav-36 unfav).

• Dreier has high negatives in the district. An equal number of those polled have a negative opinion of Dreier (32 percent) as have a positive opinion of him (32 percent).

The race is going to come down to resources. Right now, Dreier has a huge war chest, and he's undoubtedly going to use it to smear Warner and drive up his negatives. However, if Warner has enough cash to compete, things will get very interesting in the 26th.

CA-26: The Mystery of "Democrats For Dreier"

Last week, David Dreier sent a letter to residents in his district. It was signed by nine "Democrats for Dreier" announcing their support of his re-election campaign, because he is a "different kind of leader" who is a passionate advocate for the San Gabriel Valley and the Inland Empire.

The letter was signed by the following 9 Democrats:

Paul Eaton, Mayor of Montclair
Roberto Campos, small businessman, Glendora/Upland
Karen Davis, Mayor of Glendora
Mary Ann Lutz, Monrovia Councilmember
Kurt Zimmerman, Mayor of Sierra Madre
Joe Garcia, Monrovia Councilmember
Anthony Fellow, Director, Upper San Gabriel Valley Municipal Water District, Arcadia
Dorrie Bryan, HR Manager, Rancho Cucamonga
Eugene Sun, San Marino Councilmember

The questions arose almost as soon as the letter was sent.

First of all, the fact that he filled out the list with two random small businesspeople instead of filling the list with electeds is kind of curious in and of itself. But there are far more serious issues with this list.

Paul Eaton, the Mayor of Montclair, spoke for Russ Warner, the Democratic CHALLENGER to Dreier, at a fundraiser two months ago and called him "the type of change we need in the district".

Mary Ann Lutz is a CONTRIBUTOR to Warner's campaign. She gave $250 on June 30 of this year.

In these cases, there are only two explanations. Either Dreier just placed these Democratic supporters of Russ Warner (or at least it seems so) on a "Democrats for Dreier" list without their knowledge, or he bullied them into supporting his candidacy lest they find their local communities without federal help from Congress in the future. I have credible information that this is a case of the latter. A fellow activist just got off the phone with Eaton, and he explained that Dreier has lobbied for his support consistently since he reached office, laying out the carrot of increased transportation funds for Montclair and the surrounding area. This time around, Dreier basically, as I understand it, intimated that Warner wouldn't have the seniority to steer transportation money back to the district, and as a result electeds like Eaton decided to support him this time around.

This is fairly typical politics, and it's standard for an incumbent to argue that experience and seniority is an asset for their candidacy. But it's a particularly brutal way to play the game, and in this case Dreier is pretty transparently offering a quid pro quo of dollars in exchange for support.

There's also the case of Kurt Zimmerman, a former Assistant US Attorney and, according to this Smart Voter guide, a current Attorney with the Department of Commerce. If that's still accurate, his signature endorsing a political candidate would be a violation of the Hatch Act prohibiting government employees from partisan political activities.

This is only the beginning of the questions surrounding the "Dems for Dreier." I also think this shows an element of fear from Dreier's campaign, that they need to de facto bribe public officials into gaining their support.

CA-26: Americans United For Change Hit Dreier On Drilling

Today Americans United for Change, the progressive advocacy group that is visiting districts throughout the country on the "Bush Legacy Tour," hammered David Dreier for being a tool to Big Oil and special interests. From their release:

With gas prices above $4, Americans United for Change, the progressive issue-advocacy group that recently launched its national Bush Legacy Bus tour, blasted Rep. David Drier today for standing in the way of lower gas prices for California families by voting against meaningful legislation to release 70 million barrels of light, sweet crude oil from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve into the open market and replace it with heavy, sour oil that is tougher to refine – a move that has historically brought down gas prices and strengthened our national security.

The SPR has been tapped or suspended before by the current President Bush, President Clinton, and the first President Bush and each time oil has been released the impact on prices has been dramatic and immediate. For example, in 1991, oil prices immediately dropped by 33 percent. The 2000 exchange drove oil prices down by 19 percent. And the release by President Bush in 2005 resulted in a 9 percent drop.

“With gas prices hovering above $4 a gallon, Rep. Dreier was given a chance today bring real relief now to California families forced to make incredible sacrifices choosing between bills, gas, and food,” said Caren Benjamin, for Americans United for Change. "But without apology or question, Congressman Dreier chose to put his loyalty to Bush and his addiction to big oil cash ahead of relief for struggling Californians."

I don't know if the "Free Our Oil" campaign and focusing on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the most effective message, but clearly somebody has to show some leadership on the energy front. Contrary to popular beliefs, Democrats are NOT being pushed out of this debate. In a recent poll by The Wilderness Society, the public is split on the question of drilling or protecting arctic lands and offshore areas, and they believe 76%-19% that the best way to secure our energy future is to invest in new technologies and renewable sources rather than continue to drill. In addition, by a 63%-31% score, those polled believe that the President's proposal to open up ANWR and the Outer Continental Shelf to drilling "is more likely to enrich oil companies than to lower gas prices for American consumers." That's why it's so crucial for AUFC to note that David Dreier has taken $129,400 in contributions from oil company executives over the years.

There's starting to be some real pushback on this "drill now" blather. The Democrats put forward this SPR bill today and most Republicans took the bait of voting against it. Jimmy Hoffa Jr. of the Teamsters, in a real game-changer of a move, came out with a very strong statement rejecting "drilling our way out" of this crisis, and demanding long-term energy solutions. Democratic Congressional candidate John Boccieri from Ohio made this amusing Web video to mock his opponent's reliance on drilling:



And just to your left, CA-46's Debbie Cook has put together a comprehensive 10-point plan to realize Al Gore's vision of receiving 100% of our electricity from renewables by 2018.

There's work to be done - by candidates, policy wonks, advocacy groups, and regular people - but together we can beat back these shortsighted solutions and expose those who want to wed our energy needs to the failures of the past.

CA House Races Roundup - July Edition 7/23/08

Greetings and welcome to the latest installment of the California House races roundup. We're just around 100 days to go until the election, and things are starting to take focus. There are about a half-dozen seats where Democratic challengers have an outside shot at dumping the incumbent, and another six on the watch list in case something spectacular occurs. One thing to note is that the Cook numbers are tied to the 2004 election, and given the demographic changes and cratering of the Republican brand I think they mean significantly less now - it'll be interesting to see how all these districts change in November.

We have plenty of new information to judge these races, including 2nd quarter fundraising reports, national ratings from Charlie Cook and Swing State Project, additional DCCC targets, and the appearance of many challengers at Netroots Nation. So this list is really about who I think has the best chance to retain or take over a seat, not necessarily who should (though that may come through in the writing). Here are some helpful bits of information that I used to help judge.

FEC disclosures (you can search by candidate name)
Voter registration by Congressional district.
Swing State Project fundraising roundup

On to the report...

DEMOCRATIC SEATS

1. CA-11. Incumbent: Jerry McNerney. Challenger: Dean Andal. Cook number: R+3. % Dem turnout in the Presidential primary: 53.7%. DCCC defended. This remains the only opportunity for Republicans in the state, and it is starting to slip away. Dean Andal is proving to be incredibly weak at fundraising, having raised under $200,000 for FOUR STRAIGHT QUARTERS. He's not going to be able to get up on TV, and his opponent has not only outraised him but will get about a million dollars in ad help from the DCCC. Freedom's Watch threw in a few anti-McNerney robocalls, but that's really no match for the political muscle of the D-Trip. Plus, there's a brewing Andal scandal over his participation in passing privileged information and securing developer contracts for a San Joaquin Delta College contractor. As for McNerney, his vote for the FISA bill has caused outcry in the district, and national groups like Blue America won't be lending a hand. He has changed his position on medical marijuana in response to constituents, a symbolic piece of support with activists. But I think he's largely on his own in this race.

McNerney: raised $416K in the second quarter, $1.37m cash on hand
Andal: raised $174K Q2, $663K CoH


REPUBLICAN SEATS

I'm going to do four tiers in setting apart the top seats where we have challenges to Republican incumbents.

First Tier

1. CA-04. Last month: 1. Open seat. Dem. challenger: Charlie Brown. Repub. challenger: Tom McClintock. PVI #: R+11. % Dem turnout in Feb. primary: 44.7. DCCC targeted. Tom McClintock actually raised quite a bit of money in the second quarter, but it all got plowed into the divisive primary with Doug Ose. Plus, he was able to go above individual spending caps because of the "Millionaire's Amendment," which was recently ruled unconstitutional, putting constitutional literalist McClintock in a bind over what to do with that money. We've seen real awkwardness from McClintock over how to handle disgraced incumbent John Doolittle, with shows of support and rejections happening on alternate days. Meanwhile, Charlie Brown is humming along. He has a 6-1 cash on hand advantage, and he'll also be the recipient of some ad love from the DCCC. His courageous stand against the FISA bill, outreach to parts of the district harmed by wildfires, and the release of a good energy plan which stresses tax credits for alternative energy and government fleets going renewable (and opposing opening up new lands for offshore drilling, in line with the "Use It Or Lose It" plan from Speaker Pelosi). Brown was beloved at Netroots Nation and looks good in polling. This is obviously our biggest-priority pickup.

Brown: raised $355K, $675K CoH
McClintock: raised $1.27m, $117 CoH

Second Tier

2. CA-46. Last month: 4. Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher. Challenger: Debbie Cook (Responsible Plan endorser). PVI #: R+6. % Dem. turnout: 47.2. I'm still concerned that the numbers aren't quite there in the district, but I'm upping Cook this high because I have to acknowledge her achievements. First, she's outraised Rohrabacher two quarters in a row, and from what I'm being told, this has a lot to do with Dana and his wife (also his fundraiser) calling Republican backers and getting the phone slammed in their ears. The Cook Political Report moved the race to Likely Republican, the only such move among competitive California races. And there are indications that the D-Trip is at least taking a look at this race. Most of this is happening because Cook is a compelling candidate. Read her interview with Open Left or watch her interview with Talking Points Memo and you can see why. Her environmental activism, competent fiscal management in Huntington Beach, and the fact that she's not a ridiculously corrupt nutjob like Dana Rohrabacher makes for a fantastic profile. This is probably too high, but there are some great signs here.

Cook: raised $110K, $97K CoH
Rohrabacher: raised $86K, $388 CoH

3. CA-50. Last month: 5. Incumbent: Brian Bilbray. Challenger: Nick Leibham. PVI #: R+5. % Dem. turnout: 50.8. DCCC targeted. Nick Leibham outraised Brian Bilbray in the second quarter, and took in a nice haul of $245K in his own right. He's been gaining some attack points for criticizing Bilbray on wanting to debate on the radio and not in the district, and calling on other states to drill offshore but not California, an incoherent position. The D-Trip put Leibham on their Red to Blue emerging races list, and dropped radio ads in the district tying him to Bush (MP3 here). Leibham needs to articulate an agenda rather than just slam Bilbray forever, and that agenda needs to be a true contrast, but there is some movement here.

Leibham: raised $245K, $267K CoH
Bilbrary: raised $210K, $528K CoH

4. CA-26. Last month: 2. Incumbent: David Dreier. Challenger: Russ Warner. PVI #: R+4. % Dem. turnout: 50.2. DCCC targeted. Warner was very focused on fundraising in June and yet came up short of beating David Dreier in the second quarter. The problem is that Dreier has nearly two million dollars in the bank, so there's a nearly 40-1 cash disadvantage, including campaign debts. And despite the positive signs in the district, that's tough to overcome. Warner is going to need outside help, and the Bush Rubber Stamp project is a step in the right direction, but I don't know if they'll have the kind of money needed to meet the challenge. There's not much here to get me excited at this point.

Warner: raised $161K, $125K CoH
Dreier: raised $247K, $1.9m CoH

5. CA-45. Last month: 3. Incumbent: Mary Bono Mack. Challenger: Julie Bornstein. PVI #: R+3. % Dem. turnout: 51.3. The district is ready for a Democrat, and the symbiosis between Manuel Perez' hotly contested Assembly campaign and Bornstein's is going to help her in ways that aren't being respected by the experts. I still think this race is being undervalued. However, Bornstein has been fairly invisible, from what I can tell, since the June primary. And Bornstein got significantly outraised in Q2 as Mary Bono recognized the challenge she is facing can only be overcome with money. In cash on hand she's not far out of sight, however, and if Bornstein proves to be a solid and aggressive campaigner and benefits from increased Latino turnout in the Eastern Coachella Valley, there's still a shot here.

Bornstein: raised $125K, $121K CoH
Bono: raised $336K, $421K CoH

Third Tier

6. CA-03. Last month: 6. Incumbent: Dan Lungren. Challenger: Bill Durston. PVI #: R+7. % Dem turnout: 51.8. This remains my sleeper pick in California. The fundraising numbers were close, with Dan Lungren raising $173K to Durston's $125K. Lungren is trying to pivot to the center, coming out for nuclear warhead reduction with Russia, and the "X Prize" for battery technology promoted by John McCain. But he's firmly in the drill now, do nothing camp (despite voting against the "Use It Or Lose It" plan), and he's lying about Democratic plans for tax increases. Then there's this bit of hilarity:

At a town hall meeting a few months ago Rep. Dan Lungren (R-Gold River) was adamant about denying citizenship to babies born in the United States to non-citizens. He lumped the infants into the same category as immigrants who cross the border illegally. He went so far as to sponsor a bill to deny citizenship to babies born to non-citizens.

In a classic flip-flop, Congo Dan “is backing the bill giving the Department of Homeland Security 30 days to process visas for entertainers,” says the Los Angeles Times.

Durston has publicly challenged Lungren to debates, and has a nifty comparison chart on his website that shows he's truly running a campaign of contrast. Keep an eye on this one.

Durston raised $125K, $189K CoH
Lungren raised $173K, $615K CoH

7. CA-52. Last month: 7. Open seat. Dem. challenger: Mike Lumpkin. Repub. challenger: Duncan D. Hunter. PVI #: R+9. % Dem. turnout: 47.2. Calitics got to chat with Mike Lumpkin at Netroots Nation, and we were fairly impressed. He talked up all the "Conservative Republicans for Lumpkin" signs he's seeing in the district. One thing he mentioned worried me, however: well over half of the voters in the primary thought they were voting for Duncan Hunter's father, the incumbent. That makes this almost not an open seat, and with Hunter's fundraising advantage, it's going to be an uphill battle.

Lumpkin raised $129K, $54K CoH
Hunter raised $338K, $198K CoH

Also Noted

8. CA-44. Last month: 8. Incumbent: Ken Calvert. Challenger: Bill Hedrick (Responsible Plan endorser). PVI #: R+6. % Dem. turnout: 49.3. Bill Hedrick tried to hit Ken Calvert over earmarks, and certainly there's still a lot of smoke surrounding Calvert's dirty dealings. But in a low information district, Hedrick needs a lot of money for name ID, moeny he doesn't have.

9. CA-42. Last month: 11. Incumbent: Gary Miller. Challenger: Ed Chau. PVI #: R+10. % Dem. turnout: 44.0. Ed Chau has only $12,000 in the bank compared to Gary Miller's $950,000. That's game, set and match, but questions have been raised once again about Miller's potentially criminal actions (like his financial stake in getting an OC tollway built), so indictment is still on the fringes of possibility here.

10. CA-48. Last month: 12. Incumbent: John Campbell. Challenger: Steve Young. PVI #: R+8. % Dem. turnout: 45.1. Young is touting a poll (and I like that he's touting it on ActBlue) showing that he's up six points after biographical and issue information is distributed. The problem is he has no money and lots of campaign debt, so how will that information get out there?

11. CA-24. Last month: 9. Incumbent: Elton Gallegly. Challenger: Marta Jorgensen. PVI #: R+5. % Dem. turnout: 50.6. Marta Jorgensen has a fairly nice website, but the money isn't there to make this all that competitive, and she'll need an Elton Gallegly slip-up. (Of course, she spent $1,375 on the primary and won, so ya never know...)

12. CA-41. Last month: 10. Incumbent: Jerry Lewis. Challenger: Tim Prince. PVI #: R+9. % Dem. turnout: 46.3. Tim Prince is also challenging Jerry Lewis on earmark requests, but Lewis has been pretty adept at escaping scrutiny in the district.

CA House Races Roundup - 5-16-08

I'll have another House roundup probably by Monday, but I wanted to toss out a few items of note:

• CA-26: I have to applaud Russ Warner's rapid response team for jumping on David Dreier's voting record immediately and choosing the issues where he can reveal that Dreier is not the moderate he portrays as being to his district. On the heels of yesterday's House vote on the GI Bill, Warner released this:

David Dreier voted against a bill to increase educational opportunities for veterans today. The legislation expands the education benefits veterans receive under the GI bill to restore the promise of a full, four-year college education. It passed the House with broad bi-partisan support, 256 to 166.

“I would have voted differently on this bill,” said Russ Warner, a successful small businessman and the Democratic candidate for Congress from California’s 26th district. “It’s important to make the veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan part of an American economic recovery, just like the veterans of World War II were. They put their lives on the line for us, and deserve to be able to come home and go to school if they so choose. We need new leaders with new priorities in Washington, and that’s why I’m running for Congress.”

Russ Warner’s eldest son, Greg, is in the U.S. Army and served in Iraq for 17 months. Upon his return, he challenged his father to make a difference by running for Congress.

Down With Tyranny has more, including a great pic of Warner and his son Greg.

• CA-41: Please take some time to read IndieinSF's piece introducing the community to Dr. Rita Ramirez-Dean, a progressive candidate running for slimebucket Jerry Lewis' seat in the San Bernardino area. It's also linked at DWT. The post talks about the picture on the ground and the changing demographics in the district. Our growth potential in California is dependent on winning seats like this. I've met Dr. Dean and found her to be someone of character. She has also endorsed the Repsonsible Plan To End The War in Iraq, elements of which passed through the House yesterday (Rep. Jay Inslee of Washington even mentioned it on the House floor).

• CA-42: Next week, Ron Shepston has two fundraisers with Amb. Joseph Wilson. One is in Oak Canyon Park near Irvine on Wednesday, May 21, (purchase tickets here), and one is in Santa Monica on Thursday, May 22 (info here). Ron also snagged the endorsement of DFA Orange County.

• CA-24: Mary Pallant's interview at Blog Talk Radio is worth a listen.

• CA-04: Try to get the logic of this: by taking welfare payments in per diem checks from the state, Tom McClintock was denying benefits to soldiers. That's the premise of Doug Ose's new ad. Quite a logical leap, but potentially effective.

The Beginning of the Iraq Withdrawal

I've been cooped up all day, but I did notice that Republicans basically stopped the war funding bill in the House. The ostensible reason is the added domestic spending, but the real reason is that they don't want to have anything to do with funding Iraq - it'll be poison for their electoral chances. So a bunch of them voted present.

Stoller has a good post on this:

Today, about 100 House Republicans refused to vote for more war funding, voting 'present'. They are trying to hand off the war to the Democrats, but even Democrats were able to increase their 'no' vote number on funding from 141 to 149; the bill failed. In a separate bill, Republicans also voted against timelines, for torture, and accountability for military contractors, including various elements of a Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq. This bill passed with 227 votes; last year, it passed with only 218 votes, for a gain of 9.

Finally the GI bill passed with overwhelming margin of 256 votes in the House, including 32 Republicans. It included a war surtax of one half of one percent on people making over $500k a year to pay for the GI bill, at the behest of Blue Dogs. This might actually be the most remarkable piece of the votes today; conservative Democrats agreeing to raise taxes on the wealthy to pay for educational benefits for veterans. Bill Foster and Don Cazayoux both voted well on the new GI Bill and on the Responsible Plan bill with timelines, but were 'yes' votes on war funding. So yes, they are conservative, and I expect Childers to be conservative as well. Still, the MS-01, the IL-14 special election result, and the LA-06 special election result - all red seats picked off by Democrats - are devastating Republican discipline in the House.

Republicans know that they're cooked, and it's every man for himself. Bush has lost his human shield, and Democrats ought to take advantage of this by making him veto every popular program they can think of, making him more and more hated and reflecting badly on McCain and the GOP. While war funding will probably return in the Senate (but doesn't it have to start in the House?), this is a moment of more leverage than I thought possible. The string of special election losses has demoralized House Republicans. There is now a path to ending this war if the leadership chooses to take it.

And those foolish Dems that voted for funding or against education benefits for veterans are going to be hammered over it. Here's Russ Warner already pouncing on David Dreier's vote:

David Dreier voted against a bill to increase educational opportunities for veterans today. The legislation expands the education benefits veterans receive under the GI bill to restore the promise of a full, four-year college education. It passed the House with broad bi-partisan support, 256 to 166.

"I would have voted differently on this bill," said Russ Warner, a successful small businessman and the Democratic candidate for Congress from California's 26th district. "It's important to make the veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan part of an American economic recovery, just like the veterans of World War II were. They put their lives on the line for us, and deserve to be able to come home and go to school if they so choose. We need new leaders with new priorities in Washington, and that's why I'm running for Congress."

Warner added "I believe that fully equipping our soldiers, providing them with good medical care and paying them a fair wage should be considered costs of war, but David Dreier seems to believe that we don't owe our veterans anything."

The general election in the House started today, and badly for Republicans.

CA House Races Roundup - April 2008

Getting this one in under the wire. On the last day of April, with just over a month to go until the June primaries, and six months to go until Election Day, there's a lot going on all over the state in the Congressional races. Of the 19 seats in California currently held by Republicans, 17 will be contested in the fall, and some strongly so. And we now have a full 34 Democrats with the election of Jackie Speier early in the month, and only one of them is a serious challenge. We also have the first quarter of 2008 fundraising numbers, which will raise some eyebrows. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.

A note: I'm mainly getting my numbers on cash-on-hand competitiveness from the Swing State Project. Fundraising information comes from the FEC.

Here we go...

DEMOCRATIC SEATS

1. CA-11. Incumbent: Jerry McNerney. Main challenger: Dean Andal. Cook number: R+3. % Dem turnout in the Presidential primary: 53.7%. DCCC defended. Well, we're seeing today the San Jose Mercury News reporting that this race is a "pure tossup." I don't know where they're getting that from. There's no question it'll be competitive, but I look at the metric of fundraising in the first quarter, and I see that Andal, who is supposed to be the number one challenger for Republicans this cycle, couldn't manage to raise more than $90,000. That's not really the numbers of a formidable opponent. He trails McNerney in cash-on-hand by a 2-1 margin and will need significant outside expenditure support to win. He's getting some of that, but the DCCC isn't abandoning McNerney either, already putting together their Radical Andal site, designed to paint the challenger as an extremist in the pocket of corporate lobbyists. I'm sure they'll bring up these ties to Don Young's PAC, arguably the most corrupt member of Congress there is. Both sides are headed door to door in the district, and McNerney is picking up a nice issue with the "Helping Our Veterans Keep Their Homes Act of 2008." The district is turning quite blue, and I like McNerney's chances to hold the seat.

REPUBLICAN SEATS

I'm going to do three tiers in setting apart the top seats where we have challenges to Republican incumbents.

First Tier

1. CA-04. Last month: 1. Open seat. Dem. challenger: Charlie Brown. Repub. challengers: Doug Ose, Tom McClintock. PVI #: R+11. % Dem turnout in primary: 44.7. DCCC targeted. Charlie Brown is the John McCain of this Congressional cycle. He's sitting back and reaching voters while his opponents bruise and batter each other. The differences are that Brown is a better candidate and he has a bigger money advantage. But he must be sitting back and laughing right now. Doug Ose has gone after Tom McClintock drawing welfare from the state of California in the form of per diem payments. McClintock called Ose a liberal Democrat. Most of the headlines in the race have headlines like McClintock, Ose Attack Each Other. Neither of them are from the district - McClintock won't even be able to vote for himself in the primary - and in the meantime, lifelong resident Charlie Brown is making things happen. He's mobilizing volunteers in district offices. He's continuing to donate campaign funds to groups that provide support from veterans. And he's drawing on important support, like this message from area veterans.

Last week, something unprecedented in our country's history happened here in Roseville. While politicians in both parties used the Iraq War Anniversary for pontificating and armchair quarterbacking, a local candidate for office (himself a 26-year vet with a son going back for his fifth rotation in Iraq) made good on a pledge to donate 5% of money raised in his congressional campaign to non profit organizations helping veterans and families in need. He gave away $17,500 last Thursday - just a down payment [...]

As veterans, we would hope that the voters of District Four understand that tough talk by career politicians usually masks the coward within. Ose and McClintock are birds of a feather, flocking together.

We are soldiers. We believe in keeping promises. We believe in leading by example. We believe that patriotism trumps partisanship, action speaks louder than words, and we know, first hand what it takes to defend America. And for all of these reasons and more, we are proudly supporting Retired Lt. Col. Charlie Brown for Congress.

Powerful stuff. And another reason you shouldn't believe the hype that this district is hopeless - Charlie Brown is ready to win.

2. CA-26. Last month: 2. Incumbent: David Dreier. Challenger: Russ Warner. PVI #: R+4. % Dem. turnout: 50.2. DCCC targeted. On the financial front, Warner came close to raising as much as Dreier in the 1st quarter ($136,000 to $110,000), but Dreier still has a big well of cash to draw from. So the key for Warner is to find and exploit areas of weakness. One of them is health care. Warner vowed to forego the Congressional health care package until his constituents are fully covered - a very smart tactic that forces Dreier to confront the issue. He also used the anxiety around the housing crisis to note that Dreier took $12,000 in contributions from members of Countrywide Financial while voting against aid for homeowners. This is particularly salient given that Countrywide was basically looking past lying on applications in order to drive people who couldn't afford it into risky loans. For his part, Dreier is trying to pin high gas prices on Democrats, when he's voted time and again against reining in record oil company profits and removing their subsidies. Warner is running a pretty smart campaign thus far, and clearly Dreier knows he's in for a fight.

3. CA-50. Last month: 3. Incumbent: Brian Bilbray. Challengers: Nick Leibham, Cheryl Ede. PVI #: R+5. % Dem. turnout: 50.8. DCCC targeted. I like Nick Leibham's motto at the top of his website: "I am running for Congress because I want to be proud of my government again." Local op-ed columnists think he might indeed have reason to be proud come November - Logan Jenkins think the race isn't separated by more than a few points. Leibham had decent fundraising in Q1 and is only a couple hundred thousand dollars behind Brian Bilbray in cash-on-hand. We know that Bilbray will try to make this a single-issue race on immigration and I say let him. It's getting him headlines in the district like Bilbray strikes out on the Constitution. Cheryl Ede is running a strong grassroots campaign and endorsed the Responsible Plan to end the war in Iraq. If there's one beef I have with Leibham it's an unwillingness to be bold and run his campaign on contrasting policies. Hopefully he'll learn this lesson.

Second Tier

4. CA-45. Last month: 4. Incumbent: Mary Bono Mack. Challengers: Paul Clay, David Hunsicker, Julie Bornstein. PVI #: R+3. % Dem. turnout: 51.3. Julie Bornstein, former Assemblywoman and affordable housing expert, got into this campaign late but she was still able to raise around $30,000 in a matter of weeks. Add to that some money from prior election accounts and she's already within a couple hundred thousand dollars in cash on hand of Mary Bono Mack, whose fundraising has been anemic this year. I don't think she's taking this race seriously, but Bornstein is rounding up all the key endorsements, from the Senators Boxer and Feinstein, the CDP, labor, et al., and she's going to run a strong race. She does need a website - if she has one, I can't find it. Paul Clay and David Hunsicker are also running.

5. CA-03. Last month: 6. Incumbent: Dan Lungren. Challenger: Bill Durston. PVI #: R+7. % Dem turnout: 51.8. It should have raised eyebrows throughout the country when Fourthbranch Dick Cheney came out from his undisclosed location to appear at a fundraiser for Dan Lungren. Cheney doesn't visit districts where the Democrat doesn't have a shot, and this was WAY early for someone in Washington to be sounding the alarm button. Maybe they noticed that Lungren only raised around $100,000 in the first quarter, nearly matched by Bill Durston's $75,000. Durston was quick to respond to the Cheney fundraiser, too.

Dr. Bill Durston, Lungren’s Democratic opponent for House of Representatives in California’s 3rd Congressional District, states, “The fact that Dan Lungren would have Dick Cheney as his special honored guest at a fundraiser is one more demonstration of the fact that Lungren is in virtual lock step with the Bush/Cheney Administration.”

It's the old Cheney/Bush double bind; they help raise money, but most voters don't want to see you and Darth Cheney or W. in the same room. With more favorable numbers headed Durston's way, this race continues to get more and more competitive.

6. CA-46. Last month: 5. Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher. Challenger: Debbie Cook (Responsible Plan endorser). PVI #: R+6. % Dem. turnout: 47.2. This is amazing. Debbie Cook outraised Dana Rohrabacher in the first quarter of 2008. Cook didn't even enter the race until mid-January, and yet she won the fundraising battle. Either Rohrabacher isn't paying attention or people are tired of his act. And the cash-poor NRCC isn't going to be able to pull these candidates out of the fire anymore. Debbie Cook is opening her first campaign office in Huntington Beach this coming weekend, and she's going to run a strong race about energy, global warming and the environment. We'll see if Rohrabacher can keep up. It was notable that Rohrabacher attacked the cost of the war in Iraq during the Petraeus/Crocker hearings. He knows he's vulnerable.

Third Tier

7. CA-42. Last month: 8. Incumbent: Gary Miller. Challengers: Ron Shepston (Responsible Plan Endorser), Ed Chau, Michael Williamson. PVI #: R+10. % Dem. turnout: 44.0. Disclosure: I do some netroots work for Ron Shepston. Another amazing number - Ed Chau outraised Gary Miller in Q1. The numbers are paltry - $39,000 to $36,000 - but it suggests that Miller doesn't care, isn't paying attention, or can't find anyone to give his corrupt ass a buck. Add all the Democratic challengers up together and Democrats outraised Republicans significantly out here. And the primary should be interesting. Ed Chau got labor endorsements but most of his work has been fairly under-the-radar. Ron Shepston's grassroots efforts may be able to pull the primary out, and he is starting to raise money. Shepston has Ambassador Joe Wilson coming out for a fundraiser next month. Michael Williamson has been quiet other than this attack Web ad hitting Ed Chau for not living in the district. Gary Miller actually backed Barney Frank's housing bill, which suggests that the mortgage mess is a REAL problem in the district. Jonathan Weil at Bloomberg attacked Miller for trying to hide the extent of the mess from the public.

8. CA-52. Last month: 7. Open seat. Repub. challengers: several, including Duncan D. Hunter. Dem. challengers: Mike Lumpkin, Vicki Butcher. PVI #: R+9. % Dem. turnout: 47.2. Mike Lumpkin has Max Cleland coming in for a fundraiser with him this week, and he raised a decent amount of money last quarter. Here's an overview of the race; Lumpkin apparently endorsed removing "half the troops" from Iraq, which seems to me to be a silly idea, but his background as a Navy SEAL and liaison between Congress and the Special Ops Command gives him at least some facility with the region. This is a tough seat, especially going against what amounts to a legacy candidate. And Hunter has a lot more money. Vicki Butcher is a grassroots-oriented candidate who will get her share of votes in the primary. There was actually a candidate forum in this race yesterday. Any reports out there?

9. CA-24. Last month: 9. Incumbent: Elton Gallegly. Challengers: Jill Martinez, Mary Pallant (Responsible Plan endorser). PVI #: R+5. % Dem. turnout: 50.6. Marta Jorgensen has quit the race and backed Jill Martinez. Unfortunately, the primary fight here has turned a little nasty, with Jill Martinez stretching the truth about Mary Pallant's positions and her own finances. Neither candidate raised a lot of money last quarter but Martinez claimed she had, despite her bank account being in the red. Pallant is working the progressive grassroots to win the nomination, winning the endorsements of Democrats.com's David Swanson and author Norman Solomon. I'd love to see a true progressive take on Elton Gallegly. He wants to drill in ANWR. He's not that bright.

10. CA-41. Last month: 11. Incumbent: Jerry Lewis. Challengers: Tim Prince, Dr. Rita Ramirez-Dean. PVI #: R+9. % Dem. turnout: 46.3. Jerry Lewis has become the point man on forcing retroactive immunity for the telecom companies back into the House for a vote. In his speech he assailed trial lawyers for wanting to sue the phone companies, which is funny because at a million dollars his legal defense fund has put several trial lawyers' kids through college. Of bigger note here is that Republicans in San Bernardino County now number under 40% and Democrats are within 8,000 voters of retaining the majority. The district is changing, and we'll see if Tim Prince or Rita Ramirez-Dean can capitalize. I do like Rita's website and use of Web video.

11. CA-44. Last month: 10. Incumbent: Ken Calvert. Challenger: Bill Hedrick (Responsible Plan endorser). PVI #: R+6. % Dem. turnout: 49.3. Bill Hedrick endorsed the Repsonsible Plan this month, which certainly helps raise his profile a bit. He's holding fundraisers and trying to make voters aware of his presence headed into the general election. Ken Calvert is gearing up for re-election by requesting all kinds of porkbarrel projects.

12. CA-25. Last month: 12. Incumbent: Buck McKeon. Challenger: Jacquese Conaway. PVI #: R+7. % Dem. turnout: 50.9%. I threw this in because this is yet another seat where Democratic turnout outpaced Republican turnout in February. This seat also includes a portion of San Bernardino County (see CA-41). McKeon has a substantial money advantage. He, by the way, "wants the victory" in Iraq. That must be nice, thinking about foreign policy like it's an NBA playoff game.

13. CA-48. Last month: 13. Incumbent: John Campbell. Challenger: Steve Young. PVI #: R+8. % Dem. turnout: 45.1. I'll keep including this race because I really like Steve Young.