CA-04: Brown Leads Both Ose AND McClintock In General Election Matchups

Absolutely huge news from out of CA-04. On the eve of the primary, with Tom McClintock and Doug Ose locked in a death struggle of a primary, spending over $4 million dollars because they think the nomination is a prelude to an easy walk to a victory in November and a seat in Congress, Charlie Brown's campaign has released an internal poll showing him leading both Republicans.

The survey of 400 likely General Election voters was conducted by Pete Brodnitz of the Benenson Strategy Group on May 14th and 15th. The margin of error was +/- 4.9%.

Despite a $4 million advertising blitz by the GOP frontrunners, the poll shows Brown leading Ose 38% to 34%, and leading McClintock 42% to 40%.

The survey also showed a generic ballot between the Democratic and Republican candidates for Congress tied at 43%, with self identification of voters moving sharply away from the often cited voter registration statistics of the district.

“The numbers confirm that district four voters want real local leadership, and they want change,” Brown said. “No matter which career politician wins the GOP Primary on Tuesday night, this race will continue to offer a clear contrast between a partisan approach that has failed America , and a country first approach that leads by example to solve problems.”

It's an internal poll, and internal polls are often favorable to those who release them. But Brodnitz is a solid pollster and there's no reason to believe that Brown hasn't benefited by staying out of the primary scrap, while cementing his excellent reputation among voters in the 4th District.

But more than that, the internals of the poll show that voters in this so-called "red" district are desperate for change and believe in Charlie's ability to help bring it about.

The right-track/wrong-track numbers in this poll are 18/70. That's astounding for a district John Doolittle has represented for years. But the killer number is this: 37% of those polled self-identified as Republicans, and 35% as Democrats. In August of 2006, the numbers were 42% Republican and 27% Democratic. That's an enormous swing in less than two years, and remember, Brown almost pulled off the upset in 2006 when the district was far more Republican. Brown's net favorables are higher than any of his challengers as well.

In the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans among DTS voters 50-34. If that's what to expect in this district in November, Brown's going to win this thing. I know there are a lot of preconceived notions out there that this is Republican country and Brown faces an uphill battle, but one thing is very clear to me - there are NO MORE Republican districts left, and a strong Democrat can win anywhere in the country. And Charlie Brown is one of the strongest we've got.

Very exciting stuff in this poll.

CA Congressional Primaries - 2 Days To Go

Some thoughts as we head to Tuesday:

• I thought I'd have time to put together a monthly roundup for May, but it never came together, and the primary is going to change those analyses a bit, so I'll put something out after the primaries.

• I have to correct an error. On Saturday I wrote that Marta Jorgensen had dropped out of the race in CA-24. She had, but she recently got back into the race and is focusing on turning out new voters in Northern Santa Barbara County around Lompoc. This is a crucial effort to activate Hispanic voters who traditionally have not turned out, and I both salute Ms. Jorgensen for her efforts and apologize for the error. Hopefully she can visit Calitics and fill us in on that effort up in Lompoc.

• Doug Ose has loaned his campaign another $600,000 in the waning days before the GOP primary against Tom McClintock in CA-04. This primary now exceeds $4 million dollars, and it's hard to spend that much in that district. McClintock pulled out of a debate earlier this week, and there was the Pete Wilson savaging as well. Reading the tea leaves, I don't think Ose would make that extra investment if he wasn't close to nailing this down, but I could be wrong.

• In CA-03, Bill Durston offered comment on Dan Lungren's Hawaiian pool party revealed this week by ABC News:

“Lungren’s behavior is disgusting. He claims to be a leader in ethics reform, then he turns around and subverts House ethics rules. This is just one of many examples of Lungren’s hypocrisy [...] The people of the 3rd Congressional District deserve better representation than a career politician like Dan Lungren who sells out to special interests. I’ve been caring for the people of our district for over 25 years as an emergency physician. I believe we have an emergency in our government. I’m running for Congress to help restore government of, by, and for the people.”

I like it. Durston is trying to put up a big number in the June 3 primary, despite running unopposed, to show his strength in this challenge.

• And it's not primary-related, but I think we have the first ever Calitics mention in the LA Times in this story about Laura Richardson. Hey guys, you could have used my name, it's right above the title....

CA House Races Roundup - 5-16-08

I'll have another House roundup probably by Monday, but I wanted to toss out a few items of note:

• CA-26: I have to applaud Russ Warner's rapid response team for jumping on David Dreier's voting record immediately and choosing the issues where he can reveal that Dreier is not the moderate he portrays as being to his district. On the heels of yesterday's House vote on the GI Bill, Warner released this:

David Dreier voted against a bill to increase educational opportunities for veterans today. The legislation expands the education benefits veterans receive under the GI bill to restore the promise of a full, four-year college education. It passed the House with broad bi-partisan support, 256 to 166.

“I would have voted differently on this bill,” said Russ Warner, a successful small businessman and the Democratic candidate for Congress from California’s 26th district. “It’s important to make the veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan part of an American economic recovery, just like the veterans of World War II were. They put their lives on the line for us, and deserve to be able to come home and go to school if they so choose. We need new leaders with new priorities in Washington, and that’s why I’m running for Congress.”

Russ Warner’s eldest son, Greg, is in the U.S. Army and served in Iraq for 17 months. Upon his return, he challenged his father to make a difference by running for Congress.

Down With Tyranny has more, including a great pic of Warner and his son Greg.

• CA-41: Please take some time to read IndieinSF's piece introducing the community to Dr. Rita Ramirez-Dean, a progressive candidate running for slimebucket Jerry Lewis' seat in the San Bernardino area. It's also linked at DWT. The post talks about the picture on the ground and the changing demographics in the district. Our growth potential in California is dependent on winning seats like this. I've met Dr. Dean and found her to be someone of character. She has also endorsed the Repsonsible Plan To End The War in Iraq, elements of which passed through the House yesterday (Rep. Jay Inslee of Washington even mentioned it on the House floor).

• CA-42: Next week, Ron Shepston has two fundraisers with Amb. Joseph Wilson. One is in Oak Canyon Park near Irvine on Wednesday, May 21, (purchase tickets here), and one is in Santa Monica on Thursday, May 22 (info here). Ron also snagged the endorsement of DFA Orange County.

• CA-24: Mary Pallant's interview at Blog Talk Radio is worth a listen.

• CA-04: Try to get the logic of this: by taking welfare payments in per diem checks from the state, Tom McClintock was denying benefits to soldiers. That's the premise of Doug Ose's new ad. Quite a logical leap, but potentially effective.

California Election Roundup 5-7-08

• CA-03: Bill Durston may be unopposed in the June 3 primary, but he's running very hard and trying to pick up as many decline-to-state voters as possible. He's actually running a GOTV operation. The gambit here is to prove to donors and the political establishment that CA-03 is competitive. I also think it makes sense just as practice for the general and for name recognition.

• CA-04: The Club for Growth, whose record this year in primaries is actually a little mixed, has released an ad attacking Doug Ose in his race against Tom McClintock. There's plenty of outside money on both sides in this one.

• CA-42: Communications Workers of America, Southern California Council has endorsed Ron Shepston. It's somewhat notable considering that Ed Chau got the Cal Labor Fed endorsement.

Anything else you're hearing, please put it in the comments. This is an open-source elections thread.

CA-04: The GOP Primary Fight Gets Nastier

Now Doug Ose is alleging illegal coordination between Tom McClintock and a 501(c)(4) group headed by poster boy for Republican losers in the state:

A California-based group and other local officials filed a Federal Election Commission (FEC) complaint Monday regarding the alleged ties between an ex-aide to Rep. Richard Pombo (R-Calif.) and state Sen. Tom McClintock (R).

McClintock and former Rep. Doug Ose (R-Calif.) are in a bitter primary battle to face off against Democrat Charlie Brown this fall for retiring Rep. John Doolittle’s (R-Calif.) seat.

At issue is the role of Steve Ding — an ex-McClintock consultant and former chief of staff for Pombo — and The Partnership for America, a 501(c)4 advocacy group headed by Pombo.

McClatchy recently reported that Pombo’s group is organizing a $660,000 independent campaign in the 4th congressional district.

Whoever comes out of the primary is going to be tainted by multiple smears, and flat broke. McClintock and Ose are both willing to risk that because they think the 4th District is automatically Republican, and they're underestimating the strength of Charlie Brown.

At their peril.

You can read on for McClintock's ties to Pombo and various Indian gaming groups.

CA-04: McClintock Set To Enter Race

As Carlsbad Dem notes in Quick Hits, State Senator Tom McClintock will speak at a news conference in Placer County Tuesday morning to discuss the Congressional race in CA-04. And the indications are he will be jumping into the race. He's already announced an exploratory committee, and he's told his supporters that "polling shows me in a very powerful position to win the Republican nomination" against former State Senator Rico Oller and former Congressman Doug Ose. Eric Egland has already announced that he would drop out and support McClintock in the event that he announces.

Today in the Sacramento Bee, McClintock dismissed criticism that he would be seen as carpetbagging in the 4th District, which is roughly 400 miles from his home in Thousand Oaks. He claims that he rented for three years in Rocklin, which makes it all better. Charlie Brown's campaign manager got in a really choice quote:

Former state lawmaker Rico Oller, who lives outside the district in San Andreas, quickly announced that he would run in the Republican primary. So did Sacramento resident Doug Ose, a former three-term GOP congressman from the neighboring 3rd District [...]

The outsiders' aspirations are assailed by the campaign of Democrat Charlie Brown, a district resident and retired Air Force lieutenant colonel who narrowly lost to Doolittle in 2006.

"Charlie Brown raised his kids in the district," said Brown's spokesman, Todd Stenhouse. "They went to Roseville public schools. There are certain values you get for living in the district for 17 years."

He attacked the District 4 wannabes as part of "some kind of 'American Idol' talent search" fueled "by party designation and the fact that it's an open seat."

I don't think the field of carpetbaggers will clear for McClintock. Rico Oller was reportedly John Doolittle's handpicked choice to succeed him, and Doug Ose has already announced a half-million dollar ad blitz in the event of a McClintock candidacy. Meanwhile Charlie Brown continues to raise money and will not have to spend a dime in the primary.

Here's what the state of the race will be after June 3. The three carpetbaggers will knock each other around for three months, and the winner will come out with around 40% support among Republicans and no money to speak of. They'll have to raise a substantial amount in a hurry, and there's little expectation of help from the struggling national campaign committee for Republicans. Charlie Brown will have a large war chest and roots in the district. And there's those Presidential coattails. The peculiarities of this race say to me that the winner of that knock-down drag-out fight on the Republican side is by no means assured of the general election win.

2007 Congressional Fundraising Totals

I've been a really, really bad blogger and have stopped my Congressional House Roundup. So here's a mini-one. I've dug up the totals for 2007 fundraising in the top races in the state, and they're a little interesting. Here are the numbers from the key races.

CA-11:
Jerry McNerney raised $1.065 million in 2007, has $760,000 cash on hand
Dean Andal raised $535,000, has $471,000 CoH

CA-04:
Charlie Brown raised $506,000, has $383,000 CoH
Eric Egland raised $141,000, has $79,000 CoH

There are no fundraising numbers yet for the new challengers who have entered the race on the Republican side, including former State Sen. Rico Oller and former US Rep. Doug Ose. By the way, Ose has donated to Doolittle's legal defense fund, along with Minority Leader John Boehner. Reformers, all of them!

CA-26:
David Dreier raised $599,000, has $1.96 million CoH
Russ Warner raised $380,000, has $240,000 CoH
Hoyt Hilsman raised $114,000, has $10,550 CoH

Obviously, Dreier is sitting on a goldmine.

CA-50:
Brian Bilbray raised $419,000, has $262,000 CoH
Nick Leibham raised $211,000, has $188,000 CoH

Very encouraging.

Others to note:
Mary Bono (CA-45) only has a paltry $219,000 CoH. Her potential opponents Julie Bornstein, David Hunsicker and Paul Clay got in too late to register any money in this quarter (sometimes the FEC shows residual candidates who have run in previous years, so I'm not certain they're running.)
Mike Lumpkin, the Democrat in CA-52 trying to take Duncan Hunter's open seat, raised $78,000 in 2007 and has $43,000 CoH.

There's not much else to write home about here.