CA Campaign Update: CA-03, CA-04, CA-11, CA-41, CA-45, SD-19,

And away we, er, go.

• CA-03: Bill Durston, who is showing lots of strength in his race against Dan Lungren, has earned the support of the Alliance of Retired Americans, a 3.5 million-member group of retirees. Clearly this came on the heels of Durston's strong support for a not-for-profit health care system:

Dr. Durston has also been a strong proponent of universal health care. “It’s always been my philosophy that access to necessary medical care is a basic human right, not a privilege based on one’s ability to pay. We’re the only western industrialized country in the world that doesn’t have some form of universal health care, yet we pay twice as much per capita as the other countries for medical care.”

Durston is starting to get some major attention after that last poll. Expect him to attack Lungren on his vote for the bailout over the next 27 days.

• CA-04: Lots going on here. After vowing to shut down his account for 2010 statewide races, professional politician Tom McClintock just couldn't close the door.

But four weeks before the Nov. 4 election, McClintock's account remains open and active, as the Thousand Oaks lawmaker has doled out thousands of dollars to fellow Republicans in the last week.

McClintock made $3,600 donations, the maximum allowed under state law, to a trio of Republican candidates for the Legislature: Senate candidates Tony Strickland and Greg Aghazarian and Assembly hopeful Jack Sieglock.

His Democratic opponent, retired Air Force Lt. Col. Charlie Brown, made hay of McClintock's multiple accounts over the summer, calling him a career politician in search of a job.

"What office are you running for?" Brown said in a July statement.

I just find it interesting that Republicans are that worried about Jack Sieglock. Go Alyson Huber! Of course, the other half of this is that McClintock is a huge hypocrite, but you knew that.

In other news, Charlie Brown has a new ad out comparing professional politician McClintock to his record of service. Truth Fights Back, John Kerry's group, is getting Charlie's back over that ridiculous anti-military smear of McClintock's. Brown also signed the Children’s Defense Council’s Pledge to ensure affordable health care for every child and every pregnant woman. I very much liked this strong take in the press release:

“Tom McClintock gets free healthcare, a free car, free gas, and tax free per diems he’s not entitled to, yet has voted to restrict the ability of Californians to see a doctor of their choice and fought against helping our most vulnerable citizens access meaningful healthcare coverage,” said Retired USAF Lt. Col. Charlie Brown “His record of inaction has not only helped drive up the cost of healthcare for every Californian, it’s illustrative of a career politician hypocrite who would rather serve himself, than solve problems.”

Earlier this year, McClintock authored SB 1669, which would have made it easier for health insurance companies to deny the health claims of Californians on the basis of pre-existing condition. In fact, SB 1669 would have extended the period that insurers could look back in your medical history from 12 months to 10 years.

“Tom McClintock’s idea of healthcare reform is writing a law that says if you have a medical problem, you can’t get healthcare coverage,” Brown said. “This misguided bill could have literally cost millions of Californians who have battled and overcome ailments ranging from diabetes, to mild cardiac conditions or cancer their lives. It was so misguided, it never came up for a floor vote and not a single healthcare organization or institution signed on to support it.

Also, Mcjoan at the Great Orange Satan had a good piece based on some of her time in the district recently. This is big:

The campaign has seven offices across the nine counties in the huge district, one of the most beautiful in the country, spanning the Sierras. With four regional field directors, seven organizers and 25 paid canvassers, the campaign has knocked on more than 120,000 doors and made over 300,000 phone calls. Hundreds of new Democrats have been registered. This is the kind of retail politics that allows Democrats to win in Republican districts, in fact it's about the only way to run successfully in a tough district. McClintock, by contrast, has basically no field operation.

That ground game is going to win it for Charlie.

• CA-11: Continuing his quest to be the most overhyped Republican challenger this cycle, Dean Andal continues to dodge the question of whether or not he supported the Paulson bailout plan. He literally has no idea how to handle it, preferring to hide behind the idea that it would be inappropriate to comment because he's not in office. Yeah, uh, that's kind of the point. You say how you would be different from the current office-holder as a means to get the job. What a loser.

• CA-41, CA-45: Haven't written much about Tim Prince's race in San Bernardino County against Jerry "Lobbyists Are Funding My Congressional Portrait" Lewis, but somehow his campaign got the local paper to call it a tough race.

Prince criticized Lewis' use of earmarks, the pet projects that lawmakers attach to spending bills, in some cases without a vote.

"Jerry Lewis is totally void of morality when it comes to earmarks," he said, pointing to Lewis' ties to Bill Lowery, a longtime friend and lobbyist. "When I'm congressman, the mayor of Beaumont and the mayor of Apple Valley can pick up the phone and call me for help. They don't have to call a lobbyist who happens to be my best friend."

One thing that Prince would be better advised to focus on is that his district has one of the highest rates of foreclosures in the entire country. The highest? CA-45, where Mary Bono-Mack is facing affordable housing expert Julie Bornstein. If there was ever a reason to create a single-issue candidacy, this is it, and for Bornstein, who has an easier time of it with a less partisan electorate, that could be a real opening in the final month.

• SD-19: Calitics Match candidate Hannah-Beth Jackson is attacking Tony Strickland for greenwashing his environmental credentials in a very, shall we say, familiar way:



Of course, I'm happy to have provided the template for calling out Strickland on this nonsense. There are in addition lots of IE attacks in this race as it nears the home stretch.

CA House Races Roundup - July Edition 7/23/08

Greetings and welcome to the latest installment of the California House races roundup. We're just around 100 days to go until the election, and things are starting to take focus. There are about a half-dozen seats where Democratic challengers have an outside shot at dumping the incumbent, and another six on the watch list in case something spectacular occurs. One thing to note is that the Cook numbers are tied to the 2004 election, and given the demographic changes and cratering of the Republican brand I think they mean significantly less now - it'll be interesting to see how all these districts change in November.

We have plenty of new information to judge these races, including 2nd quarter fundraising reports, national ratings from Charlie Cook and Swing State Project, additional DCCC targets, and the appearance of many challengers at Netroots Nation. So this list is really about who I think has the best chance to retain or take over a seat, not necessarily who should (though that may come through in the writing). Here are some helpful bits of information that I used to help judge.

FEC disclosures (you can search by candidate name)
Voter registration by Congressional district.
Swing State Project fundraising roundup

On to the report...

DEMOCRATIC SEATS

1. CA-11. Incumbent: Jerry McNerney. Challenger: Dean Andal. Cook number: R+3. % Dem turnout in the Presidential primary: 53.7%. DCCC defended. This remains the only opportunity for Republicans in the state, and it is starting to slip away. Dean Andal is proving to be incredibly weak at fundraising, having raised under $200,000 for FOUR STRAIGHT QUARTERS. He's not going to be able to get up on TV, and his opponent has not only outraised him but will get about a million dollars in ad help from the DCCC. Freedom's Watch threw in a few anti-McNerney robocalls, but that's really no match for the political muscle of the D-Trip. Plus, there's a brewing Andal scandal over his participation in passing privileged information and securing developer contracts for a San Joaquin Delta College contractor. As for McNerney, his vote for the FISA bill has caused outcry in the district, and national groups like Blue America won't be lending a hand. He has changed his position on medical marijuana in response to constituents, a symbolic piece of support with activists. But I think he's largely on his own in this race.

McNerney: raised $416K in the second quarter, $1.37m cash on hand
Andal: raised $174K Q2, $663K CoH


REPUBLICAN SEATS

I'm going to do four tiers in setting apart the top seats where we have challenges to Republican incumbents.

First Tier

1. CA-04. Last month: 1. Open seat. Dem. challenger: Charlie Brown. Repub. challenger: Tom McClintock. PVI #: R+11. % Dem turnout in Feb. primary: 44.7. DCCC targeted. Tom McClintock actually raised quite a bit of money in the second quarter, but it all got plowed into the divisive primary with Doug Ose. Plus, he was able to go above individual spending caps because of the "Millionaire's Amendment," which was recently ruled unconstitutional, putting constitutional literalist McClintock in a bind over what to do with that money. We've seen real awkwardness from McClintock over how to handle disgraced incumbent John Doolittle, with shows of support and rejections happening on alternate days. Meanwhile, Charlie Brown is humming along. He has a 6-1 cash on hand advantage, and he'll also be the recipient of some ad love from the DCCC. His courageous stand against the FISA bill, outreach to parts of the district harmed by wildfires, and the release of a good energy plan which stresses tax credits for alternative energy and government fleets going renewable (and opposing opening up new lands for offshore drilling, in line with the "Use It Or Lose It" plan from Speaker Pelosi). Brown was beloved at Netroots Nation and looks good in polling. This is obviously our biggest-priority pickup.

Brown: raised $355K, $675K CoH
McClintock: raised $1.27m, $117 CoH

Second Tier

2. CA-46. Last month: 4. Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher. Challenger: Debbie Cook (Responsible Plan endorser). PVI #: R+6. % Dem. turnout: 47.2. I'm still concerned that the numbers aren't quite there in the district, but I'm upping Cook this high because I have to acknowledge her achievements. First, she's outraised Rohrabacher two quarters in a row, and from what I'm being told, this has a lot to do with Dana and his wife (also his fundraiser) calling Republican backers and getting the phone slammed in their ears. The Cook Political Report moved the race to Likely Republican, the only such move among competitive California races. And there are indications that the D-Trip is at least taking a look at this race. Most of this is happening because Cook is a compelling candidate. Read her interview with Open Left or watch her interview with Talking Points Memo and you can see why. Her environmental activism, competent fiscal management in Huntington Beach, and the fact that she's not a ridiculously corrupt nutjob like Dana Rohrabacher makes for a fantastic profile. This is probably too high, but there are some great signs here.

Cook: raised $110K, $97K CoH
Rohrabacher: raised $86K, $388 CoH

3. CA-50. Last month: 5. Incumbent: Brian Bilbray. Challenger: Nick Leibham. PVI #: R+5. % Dem. turnout: 50.8. DCCC targeted. Nick Leibham outraised Brian Bilbray in the second quarter, and took in a nice haul of $245K in his own right. He's been gaining some attack points for criticizing Bilbray on wanting to debate on the radio and not in the district, and calling on other states to drill offshore but not California, an incoherent position. The D-Trip put Leibham on their Red to Blue emerging races list, and dropped radio ads in the district tying him to Bush (MP3 here). Leibham needs to articulate an agenda rather than just slam Bilbray forever, and that agenda needs to be a true contrast, but there is some movement here.

Leibham: raised $245K, $267K CoH
Bilbrary: raised $210K, $528K CoH

4. CA-26. Last month: 2. Incumbent: David Dreier. Challenger: Russ Warner. PVI #: R+4. % Dem. turnout: 50.2. DCCC targeted. Warner was very focused on fundraising in June and yet came up short of beating David Dreier in the second quarter. The problem is that Dreier has nearly two million dollars in the bank, so there's a nearly 40-1 cash disadvantage, including campaign debts. And despite the positive signs in the district, that's tough to overcome. Warner is going to need outside help, and the Bush Rubber Stamp project is a step in the right direction, but I don't know if they'll have the kind of money needed to meet the challenge. There's not much here to get me excited at this point.

Warner: raised $161K, $125K CoH
Dreier: raised $247K, $1.9m CoH

5. CA-45. Last month: 3. Incumbent: Mary Bono Mack. Challenger: Julie Bornstein. PVI #: R+3. % Dem. turnout: 51.3. The district is ready for a Democrat, and the symbiosis between Manuel Perez' hotly contested Assembly campaign and Bornstein's is going to help her in ways that aren't being respected by the experts. I still think this race is being undervalued. However, Bornstein has been fairly invisible, from what I can tell, since the June primary. And Bornstein got significantly outraised in Q2 as Mary Bono recognized the challenge she is facing can only be overcome with money. In cash on hand she's not far out of sight, however, and if Bornstein proves to be a solid and aggressive campaigner and benefits from increased Latino turnout in the Eastern Coachella Valley, there's still a shot here.

Bornstein: raised $125K, $121K CoH
Bono: raised $336K, $421K CoH

Third Tier

6. CA-03. Last month: 6. Incumbent: Dan Lungren. Challenger: Bill Durston. PVI #: R+7. % Dem turnout: 51.8. This remains my sleeper pick in California. The fundraising numbers were close, with Dan Lungren raising $173K to Durston's $125K. Lungren is trying to pivot to the center, coming out for nuclear warhead reduction with Russia, and the "X Prize" for battery technology promoted by John McCain. But he's firmly in the drill now, do nothing camp (despite voting against the "Use It Or Lose It" plan), and he's lying about Democratic plans for tax increases. Then there's this bit of hilarity:

At a town hall meeting a few months ago Rep. Dan Lungren (R-Gold River) was adamant about denying citizenship to babies born in the United States to non-citizens. He lumped the infants into the same category as immigrants who cross the border illegally. He went so far as to sponsor a bill to deny citizenship to babies born to non-citizens.

In a classic flip-flop, Congo Dan “is backing the bill giving the Department of Homeland Security 30 days to process visas for entertainers,” says the Los Angeles Times.

Durston has publicly challenged Lungren to debates, and has a nifty comparison chart on his website that shows he's truly running a campaign of contrast. Keep an eye on this one.

Durston raised $125K, $189K CoH
Lungren raised $173K, $615K CoH

7. CA-52. Last month: 7. Open seat. Dem. challenger: Mike Lumpkin. Repub. challenger: Duncan D. Hunter. PVI #: R+9. % Dem. turnout: 47.2. Calitics got to chat with Mike Lumpkin at Netroots Nation, and we were fairly impressed. He talked up all the "Conservative Republicans for Lumpkin" signs he's seeing in the district. One thing he mentioned worried me, however: well over half of the voters in the primary thought they were voting for Duncan Hunter's father, the incumbent. That makes this almost not an open seat, and with Hunter's fundraising advantage, it's going to be an uphill battle.

Lumpkin raised $129K, $54K CoH
Hunter raised $338K, $198K CoH

Also Noted

8. CA-44. Last month: 8. Incumbent: Ken Calvert. Challenger: Bill Hedrick (Responsible Plan endorser). PVI #: R+6. % Dem. turnout: 49.3. Bill Hedrick tried to hit Ken Calvert over earmarks, and certainly there's still a lot of smoke surrounding Calvert's dirty dealings. But in a low information district, Hedrick needs a lot of money for name ID, moeny he doesn't have.

9. CA-42. Last month: 11. Incumbent: Gary Miller. Challenger: Ed Chau. PVI #: R+10. % Dem. turnout: 44.0. Ed Chau has only $12,000 in the bank compared to Gary Miller's $950,000. That's game, set and match, but questions have been raised once again about Miller's potentially criminal actions (like his financial stake in getting an OC tollway built), so indictment is still on the fringes of possibility here.

10. CA-48. Last month: 12. Incumbent: John Campbell. Challenger: Steve Young. PVI #: R+8. % Dem. turnout: 45.1. Young is touting a poll (and I like that he's touting it on ActBlue) showing that he's up six points after biographical and issue information is distributed. The problem is he has no money and lots of campaign debt, so how will that information get out there?

11. CA-24. Last month: 9. Incumbent: Elton Gallegly. Challenger: Marta Jorgensen. PVI #: R+5. % Dem. turnout: 50.6. Marta Jorgensen has a fairly nice website, but the money isn't there to make this all that competitive, and she'll need an Elton Gallegly slip-up. (Of course, she spent $1,375 on the primary and won, so ya never know...)

12. CA-41. Last month: 10. Incumbent: Jerry Lewis. Challenger: Tim Prince. PVI #: R+9. % Dem. turnout: 46.3. Tim Prince is also challenging Jerry Lewis on earmark requests, but Lewis has been pretty adept at escaping scrutiny in the district.

CA House Races Roundup - 5-16-08

I'll have another House roundup probably by Monday, but I wanted to toss out a few items of note:

• CA-26: I have to applaud Russ Warner's rapid response team for jumping on David Dreier's voting record immediately and choosing the issues where he can reveal that Dreier is not the moderate he portrays as being to his district. On the heels of yesterday's House vote on the GI Bill, Warner released this:

David Dreier voted against a bill to increase educational opportunities for veterans today. The legislation expands the education benefits veterans receive under the GI bill to restore the promise of a full, four-year college education. It passed the House with broad bi-partisan support, 256 to 166.

“I would have voted differently on this bill,” said Russ Warner, a successful small businessman and the Democratic candidate for Congress from California’s 26th district. “It’s important to make the veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan part of an American economic recovery, just like the veterans of World War II were. They put their lives on the line for us, and deserve to be able to come home and go to school if they so choose. We need new leaders with new priorities in Washington, and that’s why I’m running for Congress.”

Russ Warner’s eldest son, Greg, is in the U.S. Army and served in Iraq for 17 months. Upon his return, he challenged his father to make a difference by running for Congress.

Down With Tyranny has more, including a great pic of Warner and his son Greg.

• CA-41: Please take some time to read IndieinSF's piece introducing the community to Dr. Rita Ramirez-Dean, a progressive candidate running for slimebucket Jerry Lewis' seat in the San Bernardino area. It's also linked at DWT. The post talks about the picture on the ground and the changing demographics in the district. Our growth potential in California is dependent on winning seats like this. I've met Dr. Dean and found her to be someone of character. She has also endorsed the Repsonsible Plan To End The War in Iraq, elements of which passed through the House yesterday (Rep. Jay Inslee of Washington even mentioned it on the House floor).

• CA-42: Next week, Ron Shepston has two fundraisers with Amb. Joseph Wilson. One is in Oak Canyon Park near Irvine on Wednesday, May 21, (purchase tickets here), and one is in Santa Monica on Thursday, May 22 (info here). Ron also snagged the endorsement of DFA Orange County.

• CA-24: Mary Pallant's interview at Blog Talk Radio is worth a listen.

• CA-04: Try to get the logic of this: by taking welfare payments in per diem checks from the state, Tom McClintock was denying benefits to soldiers. That's the premise of Doug Ose's new ad. Quite a logical leap, but potentially effective.

CA House Races Roundup - April 2008

Getting this one in under the wire. On the last day of April, with just over a month to go until the June primaries, and six months to go until Election Day, there's a lot going on all over the state in the Congressional races. Of the 19 seats in California currently held by Republicans, 17 will be contested in the fall, and some strongly so. And we now have a full 34 Democrats with the election of Jackie Speier early in the month, and only one of them is a serious challenge. We also have the first quarter of 2008 fundraising numbers, which will raise some eyebrows. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.

A note: I'm mainly getting my numbers on cash-on-hand competitiveness from the Swing State Project. Fundraising information comes from the FEC.

Here we go...

DEMOCRATIC SEATS

1. CA-11. Incumbent: Jerry McNerney. Main challenger: Dean Andal. Cook number: R+3. % Dem turnout in the Presidential primary: 53.7%. DCCC defended. Well, we're seeing today the San Jose Mercury News reporting that this race is a "pure tossup." I don't know where they're getting that from. There's no question it'll be competitive, but I look at the metric of fundraising in the first quarter, and I see that Andal, who is supposed to be the number one challenger for Republicans this cycle, couldn't manage to raise more than $90,000. That's not really the numbers of a formidable opponent. He trails McNerney in cash-on-hand by a 2-1 margin and will need significant outside expenditure support to win. He's getting some of that, but the DCCC isn't abandoning McNerney either, already putting together their Radical Andal site, designed to paint the challenger as an extremist in the pocket of corporate lobbyists. I'm sure they'll bring up these ties to Don Young's PAC, arguably the most corrupt member of Congress there is. Both sides are headed door to door in the district, and McNerney is picking up a nice issue with the "Helping Our Veterans Keep Their Homes Act of 2008." The district is turning quite blue, and I like McNerney's chances to hold the seat.

REPUBLICAN SEATS

I'm going to do three tiers in setting apart the top seats where we have challenges to Republican incumbents.

First Tier

1. CA-04. Last month: 1. Open seat. Dem. challenger: Charlie Brown. Repub. challengers: Doug Ose, Tom McClintock. PVI #: R+11. % Dem turnout in primary: 44.7. DCCC targeted. Charlie Brown is the John McCain of this Congressional cycle. He's sitting back and reaching voters while his opponents bruise and batter each other. The differences are that Brown is a better candidate and he has a bigger money advantage. But he must be sitting back and laughing right now. Doug Ose has gone after Tom McClintock drawing welfare from the state of California in the form of per diem payments. McClintock called Ose a liberal Democrat. Most of the headlines in the race have headlines like McClintock, Ose Attack Each Other. Neither of them are from the district - McClintock won't even be able to vote for himself in the primary - and in the meantime, lifelong resident Charlie Brown is making things happen. He's mobilizing volunteers in district offices. He's continuing to donate campaign funds to groups that provide support from veterans. And he's drawing on important support, like this message from area veterans.

Last week, something unprecedented in our country's history happened here in Roseville. While politicians in both parties used the Iraq War Anniversary for pontificating and armchair quarterbacking, a local candidate for office (himself a 26-year vet with a son going back for his fifth rotation in Iraq) made good on a pledge to donate 5% of money raised in his congressional campaign to non profit organizations helping veterans and families in need. He gave away $17,500 last Thursday - just a down payment [...]

As veterans, we would hope that the voters of District Four understand that tough talk by career politicians usually masks the coward within. Ose and McClintock are birds of a feather, flocking together.

We are soldiers. We believe in keeping promises. We believe in leading by example. We believe that patriotism trumps partisanship, action speaks louder than words, and we know, first hand what it takes to defend America. And for all of these reasons and more, we are proudly supporting Retired Lt. Col. Charlie Brown for Congress.

Powerful stuff. And another reason you shouldn't believe the hype that this district is hopeless - Charlie Brown is ready to win.

2. CA-26. Last month: 2. Incumbent: David Dreier. Challenger: Russ Warner. PVI #: R+4. % Dem. turnout: 50.2. DCCC targeted. On the financial front, Warner came close to raising as much as Dreier in the 1st quarter ($136,000 to $110,000), but Dreier still has a big well of cash to draw from. So the key for Warner is to find and exploit areas of weakness. One of them is health care. Warner vowed to forego the Congressional health care package until his constituents are fully covered - a very smart tactic that forces Dreier to confront the issue. He also used the anxiety around the housing crisis to note that Dreier took $12,000 in contributions from members of Countrywide Financial while voting against aid for homeowners. This is particularly salient given that Countrywide was basically looking past lying on applications in order to drive people who couldn't afford it into risky loans. For his part, Dreier is trying to pin high gas prices on Democrats, when he's voted time and again against reining in record oil company profits and removing their subsidies. Warner is running a pretty smart campaign thus far, and clearly Dreier knows he's in for a fight.

3. CA-50. Last month: 3. Incumbent: Brian Bilbray. Challengers: Nick Leibham, Cheryl Ede. PVI #: R+5. % Dem. turnout: 50.8. DCCC targeted. I like Nick Leibham's motto at the top of his website: "I am running for Congress because I want to be proud of my government again." Local op-ed columnists think he might indeed have reason to be proud come November - Logan Jenkins think the race isn't separated by more than a few points. Leibham had decent fundraising in Q1 and is only a couple hundred thousand dollars behind Brian Bilbray in cash-on-hand. We know that Bilbray will try to make this a single-issue race on immigration and I say let him. It's getting him headlines in the district like Bilbray strikes out on the Constitution. Cheryl Ede is running a strong grassroots campaign and endorsed the Responsible Plan to end the war in Iraq. If there's one beef I have with Leibham it's an unwillingness to be bold and run his campaign on contrasting policies. Hopefully he'll learn this lesson.

Second Tier

4. CA-45. Last month: 4. Incumbent: Mary Bono Mack. Challengers: Paul Clay, David Hunsicker, Julie Bornstein. PVI #: R+3. % Dem. turnout: 51.3. Julie Bornstein, former Assemblywoman and affordable housing expert, got into this campaign late but she was still able to raise around $30,000 in a matter of weeks. Add to that some money from prior election accounts and she's already within a couple hundred thousand dollars in cash on hand of Mary Bono Mack, whose fundraising has been anemic this year. I don't think she's taking this race seriously, but Bornstein is rounding up all the key endorsements, from the Senators Boxer and Feinstein, the CDP, labor, et al., and she's going to run a strong race. She does need a website - if she has one, I can't find it. Paul Clay and David Hunsicker are also running.

5. CA-03. Last month: 6. Incumbent: Dan Lungren. Challenger: Bill Durston. PVI #: R+7. % Dem turnout: 51.8. It should have raised eyebrows throughout the country when Fourthbranch Dick Cheney came out from his undisclosed location to appear at a fundraiser for Dan Lungren. Cheney doesn't visit districts where the Democrat doesn't have a shot, and this was WAY early for someone in Washington to be sounding the alarm button. Maybe they noticed that Lungren only raised around $100,000 in the first quarter, nearly matched by Bill Durston's $75,000. Durston was quick to respond to the Cheney fundraiser, too.

Dr. Bill Durston, Lungren’s Democratic opponent for House of Representatives in California’s 3rd Congressional District, states, “The fact that Dan Lungren would have Dick Cheney as his special honored guest at a fundraiser is one more demonstration of the fact that Lungren is in virtual lock step with the Bush/Cheney Administration.”

It's the old Cheney/Bush double bind; they help raise money, but most voters don't want to see you and Darth Cheney or W. in the same room. With more favorable numbers headed Durston's way, this race continues to get more and more competitive.

6. CA-46. Last month: 5. Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher. Challenger: Debbie Cook (Responsible Plan endorser). PVI #: R+6. % Dem. turnout: 47.2. This is amazing. Debbie Cook outraised Dana Rohrabacher in the first quarter of 2008. Cook didn't even enter the race until mid-January, and yet she won the fundraising battle. Either Rohrabacher isn't paying attention or people are tired of his act. And the cash-poor NRCC isn't going to be able to pull these candidates out of the fire anymore. Debbie Cook is opening her first campaign office in Huntington Beach this coming weekend, and she's going to run a strong race about energy, global warming and the environment. We'll see if Rohrabacher can keep up. It was notable that Rohrabacher attacked the cost of the war in Iraq during the Petraeus/Crocker hearings. He knows he's vulnerable.

Third Tier

7. CA-42. Last month: 8. Incumbent: Gary Miller. Challengers: Ron Shepston (Responsible Plan Endorser), Ed Chau, Michael Williamson. PVI #: R+10. % Dem. turnout: 44.0. Disclosure: I do some netroots work for Ron Shepston. Another amazing number - Ed Chau outraised Gary Miller in Q1. The numbers are paltry - $39,000 to $36,000 - but it suggests that Miller doesn't care, isn't paying attention, or can't find anyone to give his corrupt ass a buck. Add all the Democratic challengers up together and Democrats outraised Republicans significantly out here. And the primary should be interesting. Ed Chau got labor endorsements but most of his work has been fairly under-the-radar. Ron Shepston's grassroots efforts may be able to pull the primary out, and he is starting to raise money. Shepston has Ambassador Joe Wilson coming out for a fundraiser next month. Michael Williamson has been quiet other than this attack Web ad hitting Ed Chau for not living in the district. Gary Miller actually backed Barney Frank's housing bill, which suggests that the mortgage mess is a REAL problem in the district. Jonathan Weil at Bloomberg attacked Miller for trying to hide the extent of the mess from the public.

8. CA-52. Last month: 7. Open seat. Repub. challengers: several, including Duncan D. Hunter. Dem. challengers: Mike Lumpkin, Vicki Butcher. PVI #: R+9. % Dem. turnout: 47.2. Mike Lumpkin has Max Cleland coming in for a fundraiser with him this week, and he raised a decent amount of money last quarter. Here's an overview of the race; Lumpkin apparently endorsed removing "half the troops" from Iraq, which seems to me to be a silly idea, but his background as a Navy SEAL and liaison between Congress and the Special Ops Command gives him at least some facility with the region. This is a tough seat, especially going against what amounts to a legacy candidate. And Hunter has a lot more money. Vicki Butcher is a grassroots-oriented candidate who will get her share of votes in the primary. There was actually a candidate forum in this race yesterday. Any reports out there?

9. CA-24. Last month: 9. Incumbent: Elton Gallegly. Challengers: Jill Martinez, Mary Pallant (Responsible Plan endorser). PVI #: R+5. % Dem. turnout: 50.6. Marta Jorgensen has quit the race and backed Jill Martinez. Unfortunately, the primary fight here has turned a little nasty, with Jill Martinez stretching the truth about Mary Pallant's positions and her own finances. Neither candidate raised a lot of money last quarter but Martinez claimed she had, despite her bank account being in the red. Pallant is working the progressive grassroots to win the nomination, winning the endorsements of Democrats.com's David Swanson and author Norman Solomon. I'd love to see a true progressive take on Elton Gallegly. He wants to drill in ANWR. He's not that bright.

10. CA-41. Last month: 11. Incumbent: Jerry Lewis. Challengers: Tim Prince, Dr. Rita Ramirez-Dean. PVI #: R+9. % Dem. turnout: 46.3. Jerry Lewis has become the point man on forcing retroactive immunity for the telecom companies back into the House for a vote. In his speech he assailed trial lawyers for wanting to sue the phone companies, which is funny because at a million dollars his legal defense fund has put several trial lawyers' kids through college. Of bigger note here is that Republicans in San Bernardino County now number under 40% and Democrats are within 8,000 voters of retaining the majority. The district is changing, and we'll see if Tim Prince or Rita Ramirez-Dean can capitalize. I do like Rita's website and use of Web video.

11. CA-44. Last month: 10. Incumbent: Ken Calvert. Challenger: Bill Hedrick (Responsible Plan endorser). PVI #: R+6. % Dem. turnout: 49.3. Bill Hedrick endorsed the Repsonsible Plan this month, which certainly helps raise his profile a bit. He's holding fundraisers and trying to make voters aware of his presence headed into the general election. Ken Calvert is gearing up for re-election by requesting all kinds of porkbarrel projects.

12. CA-25. Last month: 12. Incumbent: Buck McKeon. Challenger: Jacquese Conaway. PVI #: R+7. % Dem. turnout: 50.9%. I threw this in because this is yet another seat where Democratic turnout outpaced Republican turnout in February. This seat also includes a portion of San Bernardino County (see CA-41). McKeon has a substantial money advantage. He, by the way, "wants the victory" in Iraq. That must be nice, thinking about foreign policy like it's an NBA playoff game.

13. CA-48. Last month: 13. Incumbent: John Campbell. Challenger: Steve Young. PVI #: R+8. % Dem. turnout: 45.1. I'll keep including this race because I really like Steve Young.

CA House Races Roundup - March 2008

Welcome back to the California House races roundup for March. The races are coming into focus, with new challengers entering the fray before the March 7 deadline, and some actual campaigning between candidates (shocking!). And with the DCCC looking at four races in the state, California will certainly be a battleground in Congress in November.

We also know with a fair degree of certainty that Jackie Speier will be the next Representative in CA-12, after Lawrence Lessig declined to run. The initial primary is April 8 and Speier is heavily favored.

So that leaves just one Democratic seat in any degree of question, and I've decided to expand to write about 13 Republican-held seats that have varying degrees of challenges. Overall, Democrats are running in 18 of the 19 seats currently held by Republicans, and 52 of 53 seats overall. Only Kevin McCarthy in CA-22 (Bakersfield) is uncontested AFAIK. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.

A couple notes: I've changed the percentage of Democratic turnout in the February 5 primary statistics to reflect the final numbers from the Secretary of State's office. As you'll see, six of the thirteen Republican-held seats mentioned had majority Democratic turnout. Very encouraging. Also, I've noted where applicable which challengers have endorsed the Responsible Plan to End The War In Iraq. My hope is that eventually every candidate will do so; it will absolutely help them in their campaigns to show some leadership and offer a comprehensive strategy to end the war and change our conversation around national security.


DEMOCRATIC SEATS

1. CA-11. Incumbent: Jerry McNerney. Main challenger: Dean Andal. Cook number: R+3. % Dem turnout in the Presidential primary: 53.7%. DCCC defended. In researching this race, I've noticed that Jerry McNerney gets excellent press inside his district. He's moved to more comfortable policy areas for him, like renewable energy and the green economy. And he was pretty bold in standing up to the fearmongers who ran ads in his district against him about the FISA bill. The NRCC found some coins in the couch and paid for a "Vote McNerney Out" website in support of their challenger Dean Andal. But the percentage of Democratic turnout in the district reflects the fact that the demographics really have shifted here. So, good luck, NRCC.

REPUBLICAN SEATS

I'm going to do three tiers in setting apart the top 13 seats where we have challenges to Republican incumbents.

First Tier

1. CA-04. Last month: 1. Open seat. Dem. challenger: Charlie Brown. Repub. challengers: Doug Ose, Tom McClintock. PVI #: R+11. % Dem turnout in primary: 44.7. DCCC targeted. This race is really heating up. The Tom McClintock welfare queen story has legs, and may damage him in his primary fight against former US Rep. Doug Ose. A guy running as the ultimate rock-ribbed fiscal conservative can't be seen enriching himself on the public dole. The Ose-McClintock primary is getting nasty, with McClintock saying things like "He is one of those congressman that has squandered away our rights." Meanwhile, Charlie Brown has kept his promises by donating $17,500 to veterans care providers, an event which got great press. He also took the endorsement of VoteVets PAC and won an online poll with the veterans' group, yielding $5,000 for his campaign. CA-04 is most definitely still in play.

2. CA-26. Last month: 2. Incumbent: David Dreier. Challenger: Russ Warner. PVI #: R+4. % Dem. turnout: 50.2. DCCC targeted. The first real misstep of the campaign from David Dreier came this month, as he misstated his earnings from stock sales (to the tune of $263,000) in financial disclosure reports. Russ Warner pounced on it, and Dreier tried to make excuses, but it fits into the narrative of him being out of touch with the district.

Kristin Ponts, campaign manager for Warner, said, “The idea that David Dreier, who has been in Congress for 27 years, wouldn’t know how to fill out a basic financial disclosure form is absurd.”

Warner called the report an example of the “scandal-plagued culture of corruption” in Washington. He said that it was “no surprise given these recent failures to comply with House ethics rules” that Dreier chose to vote against stronger rules being adopted in the House.

The creation of an independent house ethics office was recently approved by a 229-182 vote with opposition from most Republicans.

That's a fighting Democrat right there. Dreier also has a Republican primary challenge, though it doesn't look to be that big a deal.

3. CA-50. Last month: 3. Incumbent: Brian Bilbray. Challengers: Nick Leibham, Cheryl Ede. PVI #: R+5. % Dem. turnout: 50.8. DCCC targeted. The press is starting to come around in thinking that this is a legitimate race. Nick Leibham was profiled in an interview by Lucas O'Connor that was pretty revealing. I liked this:

We win this fight because their platform is old and it's worn out...The Reagan Revolution...which started really in 1964 with Goldwater's defeat...it culminated in 1980 and 1994 and the end of the Bush years are a bookend. It's tired, it's played out, and it no longer offers up a positive agenda for America. This isn't just a change election in the sense of Democrats or Republicans. This is a paradigm shifting election and Democrats can capture that...they've got a lot of work to do but we can capture it and I think the pendulum is swinging our way.

Cheryl Ede, who's been endorsed by Progressive Democrats of America, has a base of support in the district, as evidenced by this account of an Escondido Democratic Club meeting where Leibham's policy stances were questioned as perhaps being too conservative. I think it's great to be having this debate, and having Democrats locally move their candidates to the most representative positions. That can only help in the fall.

Second Tier

4. CA-45. Last month: 4. Incumbent: Mary Bono Mack. Challengers: Paul Clay, David Hunsicker, Julie Bornstein. PVI #: R+3. % Dem. turnout: 51.3. As seen by the majority Democratic turnout in the primary, this is a district that's ripe for a takeover. And I'm intrigued by the prospect of proven electoral winner Julie Bornstein rising to the challenge. Bono Mack is married to a guy in Florida and lives in Washington. Bornstein is someone who's represented the district and can do the same in the Congress. And her son is currently serving in Iraq, which is undeniably powerful. She announced her candidacy on the fifth anniversary of the war. Her area of expertise is affordable housing, which is a sorely needed perspective in Washington, too. Keep an eye on this race, it could easily go top-tier.

5. CA-46. Last month: 7. Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher. Challenger: Debbie Cook (Responsible Plan endorser). PVI #: R+6. % Dem. turnout: 47.2. This is going to be the most fun race of the cycle, no doubt about it. Dana Rohrabacher is crazy. This is well-known. He spent an hour on the floor of the Congress recently ranting about a secret investigation about the 1993 WTC bombing that sounded like a first draft from an Oliver Stone movie. His former aide was just sentenced to three years in prison for molesting young boys. Howie Klein can give you all the background you'd ever need on Rohrabacher. And this year, we're actually poised to capitalize on this. Debbie Cook is the mayor of Huntington Beach, a solid Democrat who has endorsed the Responsible Plan. The Rohrabacher people are clearly nervous; they've been trying to use legal shenanigans to remove "Mayor" from Cook's designation on the ballot. This was tossed out of court, but the strategy is to bleed Cook of money and resources and tangle her up in legal machinations. It's almost just as telling that Crazy Dana is teaming up with Maxine Waters and calling for a boycott of the Olympic opening ceremonies in Beijing in protest of the crackdown in Tibet. He's trying to moderate his nutball stances. He's scared.

6. CA-03. Last month: 5. Incumbent: Dan Lungren. Challenger: Bill Durston. PVI #: R+7. % Dem turnout: 51.8. As I've said earlier, this is the most Democratic seat currently held by a Republican. It had the highest Democratic turnout in February of any Republican-held seat, and it has the narrowest registration advantage, too. Bill Durston is a physician and a Vietnam combat veteran. He needs the resources, but a Democrat can win this district, and maybe some of the national money put into the neighboring district of CA-04 will wear off on people over here. Plus, Debra Bowen's relentless registration efforts have their best effect in the districts in and around Sacramento, and these days that means more registered Democrats. This one will be close.

Also, Dr. Durston wrote a song about war.

Third Tier

7. CA-52. Last month: 6. Open seat. Repub. challengers: several, including Duncan D. Hunter. Dem. challengers: Mike Lumpkin, Vicki Butcher. PVI #: R+9. % Dem. turnout: 47.2. Duncan Hunter is still favored, but Navy SEAL Commander Mike Lumpkin has been good at raising money, and this interview with him shows that he has a decent command of the issues. Green Beret Jim Hester dropped out to endorse Lumpkin. Much like in CA-50, Vicki Butcher has been endorsed by PDA, and will offer a nice progressive counter-weight in the primary. A contested primary can only help a novice candidate like this. Here's a not-so-decent story on the race.

8. CA-42. Last month: 10. Incumbent: Gary Miller. Challengers: Ron Shepston (Responsible Plan Endorser), Ed Chau. PVI #: R+10. % Dem. turnout: 44.0. Disclosure: I do some netroots work for Ron Shepston. You pretty much can't find Gary Miller anymore, he's gone so far underground, but Ron Shepston has become more visible of late. He endorsed the Responsible Plan, and he attacked Gary Miller for a $1.28 million dollar earmark that he placed in the 2005 highway bill, clearly to benefit his biggest campaign contributor. Ed Chau is also a bit of a mystery, although the LA County Labor Fed endorsed him. I can't imagine they'd put money into the primary, however.

9. CA-24. Last month: NR. Incumbent: Elton Gallegly. Challengers: Jill Martinez, Mary Pallant, Marta Jorgensen. PVI #: R+5. % Dem. turnout: 50.6. I decided to add this seat after seeing the Democratic turnout numbers from February. If the right candidate can raise enough money to be visible, this is a dark horse seat. Elton Gallegly is your basic rubber stamp Republican, and he flirted with retirement in 2006. Jill Martinez was the opponent that year, and Mary Pallant, my fellow 41st AD delegate, appears to be putting together a decent organization locally. PDA has endorsed Pallant, and she penned an op-ed in the Ventura County Star responding to Elton Gallegly's no new taxes screed in the same paper.

The congressman plays a numbers game with the people's money, while distorting history and facts. He feigns compassion for the nation's middle class and poor while protecting tax loopholes for megamillionaires and the well-connected few.

Gallegly's tax policy is inconsistent and unsound because it is too simplistic and relies upon the discredited notion of supply-side economics. The only thing that trickles down is massive debt to those least able to pay.

I love a strong an unabashed progressive in this district. Let's see what happens. Marta Jorgensen is also running in this district.

10. CA-44. Last month: 9. Incumbent: Ken Calvert. Challenger: Bill Hedrick. PVI #: R+6. % Dem. turnout: 49.3. Bill Hedrick is the only challenger for this seat headed into the primary, as Louis Vandenberg and Rogelio Morales have dropped out. Ken Calvert's corruption questions continue to grow, as he has sponsored legislation that would help some business partners back home. The fact that Democratic and Republican turnout was virtually tied in February shows that there's an opportunity here.

11. CA-41. Last month: 8. Incumbent: Jerry Lewis. Challengers: Tim Prince, Dr. Rita Ramirez-Dean. PVI #: R+9. % Dem. turnout: 46.3. Jerry Lewis just got a lifeline from the new US Attorney for Los Angeles. Thomas O'Brien disbanded the public corruption unit that would be investigating Lewis' corrupt actions on behalf of lobbyists. Dianne Feinstein is seeking answers on this, but the short answer is that Lewis is probably out of the woods on the indictment front.

12. CA-25. Last month: NR. Incumbent: Buck McKeon. Challenger: Jacquese Conaway. PVI #: R+7. % Dem. turnout: 50.9%. I threw this in because this is yet another seat where Democratic turnout outpaced Republican turnout in February. I know nothing about Jacquese Conaway other than her candidate website.

13. CA-48. Last month: NR. Incumbent: John Campbell. Challenger: Steve Young. PVI #: R+8. % Dem. turnout: 45.1. I really like Steve Young and the tireless work he's done to build the party in one of the reddest areas in the entire country. Visit his site, won't you?

The Return of the CA House Races Roundup - Feb. 2008

Welcome back to the long-awaited California House races roundup! These things take up an inordinate amount of time, but I've finally found some, and I'm ready to go with this roundup. There's a lot of additional information, including Q4 2007 fundraising numbers, the turnout in the February primary offering a decent snapshot of Democratic chances in a particular district, and quite a few new candidates to speak about. I'm going to rank the top ten challenges to Republican-held seats across the state, as well as take a look at the two intriguing races held by Democrats. But first, it should be mentioned that the deadline for applying to run for a Congressional seat is fast approaching (March 7, I believe), and 4 of the 19 Republican-held seats in the state still have no challenger: CA-02 (Herger), CA-19 (Radanovich), CA-22 (McCarthy), and CA-25 (McKeon). This is especially distressing in CA-19 and CA-25, where turnout in the Feb. 5 primary was either even or favored Democrats. So anyone in these 4 districts: run for Congress! It's a résumé builder!

(By the way, you can follow all of the candidates in all these races at the 2008 Race Tracker.

OK, let's get into it:

DEMOCRATIC SEATS

While most of the 34 Democratic-held seats are safe, two are worth noting (actually 3; Minuteman member Jim Gilchrist is going to run against Loretta Sanchez in CA-47, which is hilarious. Apparently he'll campaign in between legal proceedings with other Minuteman members). One race has an upcoming special election:

1. CA-12 (open seat). There will be a special election in this district to replace the late Rep. Tom Lantos. The primary will be held on April 8, with a general election on June 3, the same day as the statewide Congressional and legislative primary. Candidates must get into the race by next Monday, February 25, so we'll know by then if we'll have a contested primary on the Democratic side between former state Senator Jackie Speier and reform advocate Lawrence Lessig, who has set up an exploratory committee.

Lessig, whose name has been bandied about in a draft campaign, has a couple Power Point presentations up about his plan to change Congress and about whether or not to run for Congress. I must admit to some degree of ignorance about Lessig in general, but he has a definite following among Silicon Valley types and the techno-savvy. He would run a reform campaign against earmarks and lobbyist money, and for public financing. Jackie Speier has spent the last couple months consolidating support in the district, however, as she was going to mount a primary challenge to Lantos before his death. She's also reached out to a lot of local bloggers, so I don't think this is exactly establishment vs. anti-establishment. It should be VERY interesting if Lessig jumps in, and either way we'll end up with a great Congressman in CA-12.

2. CA-11. Incumbent: Jerry McNerney. Main challenger: Dean Andal. Cook number: R+3. % Dem turnout in the Presidential primary: 53.9%. Jerry McNerney has fund-raised impressively (over $1.065 million in 2007), and his strong advocacy of the RESTORE Act over the telecom amnesty bill that came out of the Senate, gives me some degree of confidence that 2008 will not feature some of the same missteps as in 2007. I don't think McNerney will be able to draw on exactly the same activism that he did in 2006; but incumbency has its advantages. His strong environmental record, and commitment to constituent services give him a leg up. His opponent, Dean Andal, has put up some nice fundraising numbers (about $535,000 in 2007), but calling him a rock star is a bit of a stretch. The high Democratic turnout in the primary shows that the demographics continue to change here, and I'm confident that McNerney will do well.

REPUBLICAN SEATS

I'm going to do three tiers in setting apart the top 10 seats where we have challenges to Republican incumbents.

First Tier

1. CA-04. Open seat. Dem. challenger: Charlie Brown. Repub. challengers: Rico Oller, Doug Ose, Tom McClintock. PVI #: R+11. % Dem turnout in primary: 45.4. A lot to report here. John Doolittle dropped out in January, and since then it's been a feeding frenzy on the Republican side. Former state senator Rico Oller jumped in right away, followed by former Rep. Doug Ose (who's already running ads touting his record on ethics, which is funny since he donated to John Doolittle's legal defense fund recently). And now there's the talk, which has gone beyond rumor, that Tom McClintock will jump into this race. McClintock, by the way, is from Thousand Oaks. So we have three carpetbaggers, coming from far and wide into the Sierras to try and take a Congressional seat, and here we have Charlie Brown, with a ton of money, respect inside the district, and fresh off a near-victory in 2006, who is trying to make positive change right now instead of waiting for November. He's giving more than $23,000 of his campaign money to assist organizations that serve veterans and their families. That's a stark contrast. So while a few people have written off this race, with the prospect of a bruising primary on the Republican side and our excellent candidate, I think Charlie Brown remains well-positioned to pull this off.

2. CA-26. Incumbent: David Dreier. Challenger: Russ Warner. PVI #: R+4. % Dem. turnout: 50.6. I get bullish on this race more and more. First of all, Hoyt Hilsman dropped out of the race, clearing the field for Russ Warner. Warner, who has raised over $400,000 in his campaign, can now commit that entirely to the general election. David Dreier has completely lost sight of this district and he's facing his first real challenger basically since he was elected in 1980. Now, it's not smooth sailing; Dreier has $2 million dollars in the bank. But look at that Democratic turnout on February 5. That excitement gap will continue at the top of the ticket, and Russ Warner needs to ride the wave.

3. CA-50. Incumbent: Brian Bilbray. Challenger: Nick Leibham. PVI #: R+5. % Dem. turnout: 51.2. Another piece of good news with that February 5 turnout. And there is almost fiscal parity in cash on hand. Brian Bilbray has raised $419,000, with $262,000 CoH, and Nick Leibham raised $211,000, with $188,000 CoH. This North County Times article lays out the stakes:

Doug Thornell, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which raises money for Democratic candidates and ranked the Republican-held 50th district as vulnerable, said party leaders were impressed by Nick Leibham, a Rancho Santa Fe lawyer challenging Bilbray.

In December, Democrats listed the race for the 50th Congressional District seat held by Bilbray as one of the top 40 to watch in the nation, in part due to Leibham's ability to raise campaign funds.

Leibham, an attorney and former criminal prosecutor for the city of San Diego, said his campaign platform includes addressing energy independence, global warming and a "timely and responsible" withdrawal of troops from Iraq.

For his part, Bilbray said that "When I'm in Encinitas getting my hair cut, the feedback I've been getting is great." Which is, you know, extremely sophisticated polling. But his votes against S-CHIP and on other issues could come back to haunt him. His fallback position is to blame undocumented immigrants, but we'll see if he can go to that well again.

Second Tier

4. CA-45. Incumbent: Mary Bono Mack. Challengers: Paul Clay, David Hunsicker, Julie Borenstein. PVI #: R+3. % Dem. turnout: 52.4. In this Palm Springs district, Mary Bono Mack, who likes to hang out with Judith Nathan, has only $219,000 cash on hand. That's more than any of the three candidates set to face her, to be sure, but that's dangerously low. Julie Borenstein is a former Assemblywoman who has a proven electoral record. I'm intrigued by the possibilities here, especially with that turnout number.

5. CA-03. Incumbent: Dan Lungren. Challenger: Bill Durston. PVI #: R+7. % Dem turnout: 53.1. That is the best percentage turnout in any of these Republican-held districts. Dan Lungren is a carpetbagger who found his way into a Sacramento-area district some years ago. Bill Durston has maintained a presence online, hitting Lungren for his environmental record and trying to get him listed as one of the League of Conservation Voters' "Dirty Dozen." Durston, a Vietnam vet, has an excellent public record on the issues. This is obviously a long shot, but 53% Democratic turnout? I don't know, running on getting out of Iraq and fighting global warming could be potent, especially with the top-of-the-ticket coattails. (I must confess that I do like Lungren's X Prize idea.)

6. CA-52. Open seat. Repub. challengers: several. Dem. challengers: several. PVI #: R+9. % Dem. turnout: 47.6. I still think it's going to be very difficult to challenge the likely Republican candidate, longtime Rep. and worst Presidential candidate ever Duncan Hunter's son, also named Duncan Hunter. However, Democrat Mike Lumpkin did raise $78,000 in 2007, which is not a bad number. Here's a story from DKos about the Democratic candidates in this district. Lumpkin is a former Navy SEAL who the diarist calls "the most conservative of the three" candidates (the others are Vickie Butcher and Jim Hester, himself ex-Special Forces). I'm pretty sanguine about our chances here, but I'd like to see what another Fighting Dem can do.

Third Tier (Orange County corruption sector)

7. CA-46. Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher. Challenger: Debbie Cook. PVI #: R+6. % Dem. turnout: 47.6. This one actually has a chance to get interesting. Everyone knows that Dana Rohrabacher is out of his mind. His statements are routinely offensive and astonishing, and his ties with child molesters and even the Taliban are well-known. But he's never really had to run a tough race in his nine elections to Congress. Debbie Cook is the mayor of Huntington Beach, the biggest city in the district. She's running in this seat, she just announced at the Democratic Party of Orange County convention. If she can get the money, I think she has the potential to be a formidable opponent. Here's her statement of candidacy:

“Our nation faces big problems: a growing energy gap, a struggling economy, global warming, the escalating costs of health care, and the war in Iraq.” Mayor Cook said. “We need new people with new passion and new ideas who have experience working across party lines to get results.”

More here and here.

8. CA-41. Incumbent: Jerry Lewis. Challengers: Tim Prince, Dr. Rita Ramirez-Dean. PVI #: R+9. % Dem. turnout: 46.8. Tim Prince had a kickoff party recently and is organizing on the ground in the district. Dr. Dean is doing the same. Both face an uphill battle against Lewis, but it should be entirely focused on corruption. Lewis received more earmark money than anyone in Congress in 2007, despite being in the minority party, getting over $137 million for pet projects. He's still under an FBI investigation. There's still a lot of stuff you can pin on Lewis, it'll just take the right candidate and a lot of money.

9. CA-44. Incumbent: Ken Calvert. Challenger: Bill Hedrick. PVI #: R+6. % Dem. turnout: 50.1. That is an enticing number. Bill Hedrick needs the resources to compete. Ken Calvert is also under investigation by the FBI, and the Jurupa Parks district recently turned down a half-million dollar settlement in a case where Calvert profited from a shady land deal. Again, a lot of smoke. Hedrick needs to pick up on it.

10. CA-42: Incumbent: Gary Miller. Challengers: Ron Shepston, Ed Chau. PVI #: R+10. % Dem. turnout: 44.2. Ron Shepston is the sentimental favorite, someone who came out of the netroots to make this challenge against corrupt incumbent Gary Miller. He's built a campaign team (including some of those who helped Jerry McNerney defeat Richard Pombo) and is planning a lot of house parties. However, there's a primary challenger (Ed Chau) which will eat up some money, and the turnout number in the February 5 primary is worrying. Like these other races, there are corruption allegations that you can sink your teeth into.

CA House Races Roundup - October 2007

There's some real data in the form of third-quarter fundraising numbers to pore over, and events in Washington and at home have served to focus on some of our Congressional candidates here in California. Plus, believe it or not, we're only about a year out from Election Day. Let's take a look at the top ten races.

As usual, I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also, as usual, including the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)

First, let's look at the one threatened seat currently held by a Democrat.

1) CA-11. Incumbent: Jerry McNerney. Main challenger: Dean Andal. Boxer number: 49. McNerney had a big fundraising quarter, with over a million dollars in receipts, so he obviously won't suffer from the same cash disadvantage he had in his race against Richard Pombo. Nearly half of that money, $421,000, came from PACs. This is not a low-dollar revolution. Dean Andal has raised plenty of money too, but he's down 2:1 in cash on hand. McNerney of late has hammered the SCHIP issue, perhaps as a way to get back in the good graces of some Democrats wary of his votes and rhetoric on other issues. Andal is trying to blur the lines on the issue.

A spokesman for former California Assemblyman Dean Andal (R), who is seeking Rep. Jerry McNerney’s (D) seat, made a similar remark. “He’s looking at it, like all of us reading a paper,” Richard Temple said. “Until he has all the information, I don’t think he can [definitively] say whether the president is doing the right thing,” Temple said.

The fact is that Andal is trying to reinvent himself as some kind of moderate, when it's obvious he would be a Republican rubber-stamp. The question is whether or not McNerney will be able to rally supporters that he represents a true contrast.

Now, to the top 10 challengers.

1) CA-04. Incumbent: John Doolittle. Main challenger: Charlie Brown. Last month: 1. Boxer number: 40. Doolittle's money troubles have been well documented, but just today we learned that he has more money in his legal defense fund than he does cash on hand for the campaign. That should give you an inkling as to his priorities. Practically everyone in America has been subpoenad to testify in his corruption investigation, and those who haven't are running against him in the Republican primary (at least 3 challengers, at last count). Meanwhile, he's defiant about staying in the race, perhaps because it is making his wife rich - she got another $45,000 from the campaign for "fundraising services" last quarter. We're all hoping Doolittle stays in this race and limps across the primary line, because Charlie Brown is poised to crush him. At this point, Chris Cilizza of the Washington Post has this as the most likely race to flip parties in America. (Interesting side note: Doolittle primary challenger Eric Egland is stealing Brown's statements for his own website. More blurring strategy.)

2) CA-26. Incumbent: David Dreier. Main challengers: Russ Warner, Hoyt Hilsman. Last month: 2. Boxer number: 48. David Dreier got a wake-up call and started raising money in earnest this quarter for what will be a competitive race. Russ Warner's Q3 numbers were good (close to $130K), and he's doing the smart thing by attacking Dreier on his SCHIP vote. I like that Hoyt Hilsman is foregrounding the housing crisis, which is particularly acute in this district, as a part of his candidacy. Whoever comes out of the primary will be able to deliver a strong message of change. Dreier, meanwhile, will continue to whine about the mean Democrats and really make himself look like a strong leader.

3) CA-50. Incumbent: Brian Bilbray. Main challenger: Nick Leibham. Last month: 3. Boxer number: 48. Nick Leibham is a serious candidate for Congress in an area that was ravaged by wildfires last week, which may change the dynamic somewhat. Leibham raised around $50K and has $132,000 CoH, trailing Bilbray by about half, which isn't a bad spread at this point, honestly. He actually gained ground this quarter because Bilbray had a lot of expenditures. Bilbray being on Air Force One when it grounded firefighting aircraft in the midst of the blazes for several hours seems like it could be made into a campaign issue. Bilbray has one arrow in the quiver, and that's hating on illegal immigrants. It defines him to the extent that he's actually wistful for the imminent departure from Congress of Tom Tancredo. I'm confident about keeping this in the number 3 position for now, although Leibham must demonstrate support above the Busby ceiling here.

4)) CA-41. Incumbent: Jerry Lewis. Main challengers: Tim Prince, Dr. Rita Ramirez-Dean, others. Last month: 8. Boxer number: 43. I'm shooting this one back up, as events on the ground have shifted. First of all, the investigations have restarted, with one Lewis staffer trying to deny a grand jury subpoena. Second, the Brent Wilkes trial has taken a bizarre turn, leading some to wonder if attorneys are setting up Wilkes to flip on the other Congresscritters he bribed, including Lewis. So the legal cases are hampering him. What's more, new candidates have entered the race. Tim Prince is officially in, and he's trying to keep his profile up in the district. I'll have more on Dr. Ramirez-Dean later, but she's also a candidate. Suffice to say that we will not have the same situation where Lewis handpicked his opponent in 2006. There will be an actual election.

5) CA-42. Incumbent: Gary Miller. Main challenger: Ron Shepston. Last month: 5. Boxer number: 41. This is yet another area where the recent wildfires may affect the dynamic of the race. While Gary Miller was voting against health care for children and keeping a low profile from federal investigators, Ron Shepston walked out of a candidate training summit to find his home in Silverado Canyon being threatened by the Santiago fire. He got right to work helping local firefighting efforts. With all of the human interest stories I've seen around Southern California the past week, I can't believe I didn't see this one: a candidate for Congress pitching in and showing leadership through helping defend his home and the homes of his neighbors from fires. It's powerful. Shepston needs something to click with a larger base of support (his fundraising last quarter was around $25K) and this could be it.

6) CA-45. Incumbent: Mary Bono. Main challenger: Paul Clay. Last month: 10. Boxer number: 49. Now that there's an actual candidate in Paul Clay, I can raise this closer to the level where it should rightfully be. It remains to be seen whether or not Clay is viable, but certainly the Palm Springs progressive community has been active and vocal and will push to unseat Mary Bono this time around. Bono immunized herself a bit by voting with Democrats or SCHIP, but there's still a long record of not supporting the needs of the district. And marrying a fellow Congressman, to me, shows that she's really part of the DC establishment and not the area.

7) CA-44. Incumbent: Ken Calvert. Main challenger: Bill Hedrick. Last month: 6. Boxer number: 45. Ken Calvert still has an ethical cloud hanging over his head, has a terrible voting record, supported the Dirty Tricks initiative in its initial incarnation, and Bill Hedrick is on the attack. This is an email he sent out recently, in response to a made up controversy about flag-folding that Calvert decided to take the lead on:

Like many of you, I was amazed that Congressman Calvert's October 25, 2007 emailed newsletter consisted of a garbled interpretation of American history, Pilgrims, and a controversy regarding the "constituent service" of selling American flags, etc., rather than the real and immediate crisis facing residents of the 44th Congressional District-wildfires and the tragic loss suffered by Californians [...]

I join others in praying for an end to the fires and God's blessing on the victims and firefighters. We need engaged
representatives who will fight full-force to make our federal government responsive here and now.

Projecting an image of a do-nothing Congressman is right in line with what will work next November, IMO. Hedrick is doing a good job attacks, but needs to make sure he has the resources to fight in this district.

8) CA-24. Incumbent: Elton Gallegly. Main challengers: Mary Pallant, Chip Fraser, Brett Wagner, Jill Martinez? Last month: 4 Boxer number: 47. I just don't think Elton Gallegly's retiring this time around, and while I think that if he did there could be some competition here, he far outstrips the rest of the field in money and name ID. I'd really like to see a viable alternative here because it might help downticket races (SD-19!), but none is forthcoming as of yet. I like Mary Pallant a lot but an $1,100 3rd quarter isn't going to cut it.

9) CA-52. Incumbent: None. Republican challenger: Duncan L. Hunter. Democratic challengers: Jim Hester, Mike Lumpkin. Last month: 7. Boxer number: 44. Mike Lumpkin raised some serious money, around $50,000 in a short amount of time, to challenge this open seat. I still think that it's going to be hard to run against someone who will be serving in Iraq or Afghanistan during the election, potentially, and in addition, Duncan Hunter the pére has raised his profile enough that low-information Republicans will go to the polls thinking that he's the candidate, giving a fake level of incumbency to his namesake.

10) CA-03. Incumbent: Dan Lungren. Main challenger: Bill Durston. Last month: 9. Boxer number: 42. Nothing much to report here, although Bill Durston does have a MySpace page. Akogun's reports on the race have been very enlightening. Give it up for candidates doing the hard work in red counties.

CA-41: Lewis Aide Subpoenaed

That was quick. The new US Attorney for the Los Angeles region, Thomas O'Brien, was just sworn in a week or so ago. He's apparently making the Jerry Lewis investigation a priority:

A federal grand jury in Los Angeles has issued a subpoena for a House Appropriations Committee staffer as part of the ongoing probe of Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-Calif.), the ranking member of the powerful panel.

Greg Lankler, a staffer on the House Appropriations Committee's Defense subcommittee, was recently subpoenaed by a federal grand jury looking into Lewis, according to House insiders.

The subpoena is for both documents and testimony, although it is unclear at this point whether Lankler will cooperate. The matter has been forwarded to the House general counsel's office, which is still studying the subpoena.

There hasn't been a subpoena in this case, which involves Lewis' moving millions of dollars' worth of earmarks to his friend, the ex-Congressman and lobbyist Bill Lowery, in over a year. Investigators on the case have been running out of money. So it is a bit of a surprise that this subpoena would emerge. The big difference in recent weeks is the confirmation of Thomas O'Brien.

Draw your own conclusions.

Rep. Jerry Lewis: Choosing His Committees, Choosing His Opponent?

Now for the reason I turned to Novakula in the first place (yes, he's a partisan hack, but his sources are typically impeccable). This weekend he reported on maneuvers within the House GOP caucus to keep Jerry Lewis in his post as the ranking member of the Appropriations Committee, despite being under federal investigation. You'll recall that Minority Leader John Boehner stressed ethics and honesty when elected by the caucus, and even demoted John Doolittle from Appropriations when the FBI raided his house. There would appear to be a double standard, and reformers within the Republican Party are pissed.

The GOP leadership was so frazzled by this column that they sought to spin it on Friday, before it was even published. They denied that the meeting ever occurred. However, Lewis is still the ranking member of the Committee, so those denials only go so far. So it appears he'll remain in that position throughout his re-election effort. And that effort has Howie Klein pissed:

It also looks like he's gotten the same shill candidate, Louie Contreras, who didn't run against him in 2006 to be his "opponent" in 2008-- and the state of Art Torres' California Democratic Party is so pathetic that they won't even lift a finger to look into it.

So Lewis, probably the single most corrupt man in Congress, has the Republican nomination locked up and the Democratic nomination rigged. All he has to do is not get indicted. He's spent over a million dollars in legal fees to keep that from happening.

Contreras actually jumped into the comments of that post and claimed that State Superintendent Jack O'Connell was supporting him. He isn't. The San Bernardino Sun claims Tim Prince is running, though he earlier said that he would only run if Lewis didn't. I can add that there will be an additional "mystery candidate" in this race, and for now, that's all I can say. (Tee-hee!!)

CA-41: Lewis, DoJ Drain The Money Swamp

Bruin Kid lets us know that Jerry Lewis will be seeking re-election next year. He's obviously pretty confident that his legal troubles and investigations into his corrupt earmarking will amount to nothing. I'm thinking this is why:

In Los Angeles, a federal criminal investigation of Rep. Jerry Lewis, a California Republican, stalled for nearly six months due to a lack of funds, according to former prosecutors. The lead prosecutor on the inquiry and other lawyers departed the office, and vacancies couldn't be filled. George Cardona, the interim U.S. attorney in Los Angeles, declined to comment on specific cases but confirmed that lack of funds and unfilled vacancies caused delays in some investigations [...]

People with knowledge of the case said that by the time the investigation stalled in December 2006, it had branched out into other areas, including Mr. Lewis's June 2003 role in passing legislation that helped giant hedge fund Cerberus Capital Management. People associated with Cerberus around the same time gave at least $140,000 to a political action committee controlled by Mr. Lewis. Cerberus officials didn't respond to phone calls or emailed questions concerning the Lewis inquiry [...]

After the lead prosecutor in the Lewis case quit, others assigned to the case took time getting up to speed. Brian Hershman, a former deputy chief of the Los Angeles office's public corruption section, declined to comment on specific cases, but confirms that his group's work overall was derailed by the departure of experienced prosecutors. Like several others, he says he left for more money to support his family.

Replacements "are mostly rookies," he says. "It will be some time before they'll be able to restore the section to what it was before."

With additional funds recently made available by Congress, the Los Angeles office has filled 12 of 57 lawyer vacancies and is expecting an additional 12 lawyers to start soon. To jump-start the Lewis investigation, Mr. Cardona, the interim U.S. attorney, in June called on a veteran prosecutor, Michael Emmick, to revive and supervise the investigation, people with knowledge of the investigation say.

Day late and a dollar short on that one, I'd gather. This is approaching criminal conduct by the Justice Department. At a time when the investigation was expanding, Debra Wong Yang (the US Attorney for the region) suddenly jumped ship for the law firm representing Lewis. You can bet they never lacked funds; Yang received nearly $1.5 million. The law firm, Gibson Dunn, took the top assistant off the case as well. So the LA office was thrown into disarray precisely when the investigation was heating up, and the money for the office dried up at the same time. Pathetic. With or without Alberto Gonzales, we still have a DoJ protecting its own and politicized beyond control. And this is the time when Democratic leaders are seeking to call off the dogs in the US Attorney case?

CA House Races Roundup - August 2007

We have 15 months to go before Election Day, and it's time for another roundup of Congressional races. I am going to continue to focus on the top 10 challenges to Republican incumbents. There is certainly a concern in CA-11 with the Jerry McNerney/Dean Andal race, particularly after McNerney's "I'm a moderate" comment seemed to depress supporters. On the bright side, he did vote against the ridiculous FISA bill. And as we go into September, I would hope he would continue his efforts to end the occupation of Iraq. I will certainly cover the McNerney race in future roundups.

But for now, let's take a look at the top 10 challenges. I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also adding the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good.

1) CA-04 (Doolittle). Last month: 1. Boxer number: 40. Charlie Brown got some amazing news this week. Mike Holmes, an Auburn city councilman and a Republican, announced he was running in the primary to unseat ethically challenged Rep. John Doolittle. Holmes ran a primary race last year and got around 30% of the vote. This gives Doolittle two challengers next June (Eric Egland has already announced), which is a lot better for Doolittle than one challenger to which anti-Doolittle forces can focus their energies. This makes it more likely that a wounded Doolittle will survive the primaries (if he's not indicted by then) and face Brown, who's flush with cash and unopposed in his primary. Brown also made a great impression at the Yearly Kos Convention, so there will be plenty of online support for him.

2) CA-26 (Dreier). Last month: 2. Boxer number: 48. Another candidate who made a big impression at Yearly Kos was Russ Warner. At the California caucus he gave a version of this speech:



Warner's fundraising stats were already impressive for the district, and now we're starting to see some grassroots support. If he can tap into what Hilda Solis has been doing online (Solis has endorsed him), there could be a groundswell. Meanwhile, Dreier is whining that local Democrats blocked funding for expanding the Gold Line light-rail service to "focus on projects in their districts rather than regional priorities." Right, because the Gold Line doesn't mainly go through Pasadena, in Adam Schiff's district. Dreier is such a tool.

3) CA-24 (Gallegly). Last month: 3. Boxer number: 47. The August recess is retirement season for GOP Congresscritters. We've already seen three of them go this week alone. So naturally thoughts turn to who's next, and Gallegly, who tried to get out in 2006, is a prime candidate. There certainly must be some talk about it in the district: he's got four declared candidates already: Jill Martinez, Brett Wagner, James "Chip" Fraser, and Mary Pallant.

4) CA-50 (Bilbray). Last month: 4. Boxer number: 48. Michael Wray has dropped out of the primary in CA-50, leaving John Lee Evans and Nick Leibham to contest for the right to battle Brian Bilbray next November. The best way to attack Bilbray, who doesn't get off that illegal immigration message for a second, is to highlight his pro-Bush, anti-progress voting record, including denying health care to 6 million American children with his vote against SCHIP last month. Leibham apparently raised $89,000 last quarter, and Bilbray has a paltry $213,000 CoH, which is interesting.

5) CA-42 (Miller). Last month: 7. Boxer number: 41. The big news here is that we have a candidate, and it's blogger Ron Shepston. You've undoubtedly read a little about him on Calitics. LA City Beat has a nice article about Ron and the netroots movement behind him in this race. It's not going to be easy. But Ron has raised about $7,200 on ActBlue alone, and his offline fundraising is progressing. And Miller is still taking heat from the DCCC, who sent out a notice to reporters attacking his vote against SCHIP.

6) CA-41 (Lewis). Last month: 5. Boxer number: 43. Like with Gallegly, we're waiting to see if the rumors about Lewis' impending retirement are true. We do know that Lewis has continued to bring home the bacon (a little questionable earmarking isn't going to stop him) to his district, and then there's this:

A lobby firm connected to a federal investigation has seen business boom this year for its clients, many of whose projects are in a powerful House appropriator’s district.

The House Appropriations Committee’s ranking member, Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-Calif.), has sponsored or co-sponsored $55 million worth of earmarks in this year’s defense spending bill — close to half of the funds won by the California Republican in the legislation — for clients represented by one firm.

A former appropriations aide to Lewis, Letitia White, and former Rep. Bill Lowery (R-Calif.), who is friendly with Lewis, work at the company, Innovative Federal Strategies (IFS).

Tim Prince is all but in this race. I met him a few weeks back and he seems like a nice guy.

7) CA-44 (Calvert). Last month: 6. Boxer number: 45. Last month's ruling that a city government agency illegally sold Ken Calvert a bunch of land hasn't gotten a ton of traction yet. He has been targeted by MoveOn in a Riverside-area protest where protestors presented him with a report on how much money district taxpayers have spent on the war in Iraq. Calvert is dug in on Iraq, which is of course going to be a major issue in 2008. Bill Hedrick will be Calvert's opponent, and, um, check out the blog!

8) CA-45 (Bono). Last month: 8. Boxer number: 49. Still no opponent named, and I'm flirting with the idea of dropping any race out of the top 10 unless there's a named candidate. This is really a missed opportunity right now.

9) CA-46 (Rohrabacher). Last month: unranked. Boxer number: 45. I'm adding nutcase Dana Rohrabacher to the list for a couple reasons. One, he has an announced opponent (Jim Brandt, who ran against him last year). Two, it gives me an opportunity to print this quote.

Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Huntington Beach/ Long Beach, was baffled when asked recently about his use of the popular online gathering site Facebook.

"Faith book?" the befuddled congressman replied.

Hilarious.

10) CA-52 (open seat). Last month: 10. Boxer number: 44. Duncan Hunter was unable to beat people who weren't running in the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa. He's gone from this seat, but his son is running and it's a safe bet that the Republicans will retain it.