CA Election Update: Now Behind In All Close Race Counts

As TINS posted yesterday, Hannah-Beth Jackson has now fallen behind in the latest count of her race in SD-19, and according to local reports the remaining votes to be counted are mainly in Strickland-friendly areas. This one looks grim. At this hour Strickland leads by 1,560 votes, and it's actually outside of the 1/2 of 1% required for a partial recount.

Hannah-Beth Jackson (Dem) 186,071 49.7%
Tony Strickland (Rep) 187,631 50.3%

The other two races we're monitoring are actually in better shape than Hannah-Beth's. In AD-10, the latest numbers from the Secretary of State show Jack Sieglock leading Alyson Huber by just 506 votes.

Alyson L. Huber (Dem) 80,507 46.4%
Jack Sieglock (Rep) 81,013 46.8%

This is currently inside recount territory. According to Randy Bayne, the remaining ballots left to count are mainly in Sacramento and San Joaquin Counties. The ballot count is done in Amador County and mostly done in El Dorado County. With some luck, the Sacramento County ballots will swing for Huber; she beat Sieglock 52-41 there. Sieglock won San Joaquin County 51-42.

In CA-04, Charlie Brown is within 569 votes of Tom McClintock.

Charlie Brown (Dem) 168,378 49.9%
Tom McClintock (Rep) 168,947 50.1%

The question is how many ballots are left in Nevada County, where Brown won big. According to the unprocessed ballot report, there are still 10,000 left up there, but I think that's outdated information. It's probably more like 5,000, if not less. Still, we are well within the .5% required for a partial recount. So that's where that's likely to be headed regardless of what happens with the final numbers.

Again, counts and recounts cost money, so if you can chip in a couple bucks for these Democrats at the Calitics ActBlue page, I'm sure they'd be grateful.

Couting Madness: Huber within 319 votes, Clark and DFA Come Out For Brown

Everyone should bookmark this site monitoring the close races that haven't been called in California. There are four such races within 2% at the moment. There's Prop. 11, which is trending toward passage with a 131,000 vote lead. There's SD-19, which has some breathing room now, as Hannah-Beth Jackson leads by 1,203 votes.

And then there are the two Sacramento-area races. Alyson Huber's race in AD-10 has really tightened up. She now trails Jack Sieglock by just 319 votes out of 154,000 counted. That is well within the 1/2 of 1% territory that would trigger an automatic recount. Which brings up an interesting question which perhaps some election junkie could answer. The Secretary of State certifies the count on December 2. But the new legislature is sworn in on December 1. If there's a race with no clear winner at that point, what happens?

Finally, we have CA-04, the race between Charlie Brown and Tom McClintock. This has bounced around a bit, but we're now looking at an 889 vote lead for McClintock. There are anywhere between 48,000 and 55,000 votes left to count, based on this chart (which you can also bookmark) of unprocessed ballots. This race also appeared headed to a recount, and if you believe this Daily Kos diarist, Brown has a good shot at making up ground, because there are so many outstanding votes in Nevada County, where Brown did best.

We know these counts and recounts are expensive, and now two groups have stepped up with their support of Charlie while we sort this out. Wes Clark sent an email to his list today:

Our friend Charlie Brown needs our help. The margin in California's 4th Congressional District is razor thin, and they're still counting votes. After more than 300,000 ballots were cast in CA-04, the race is tied. The current difference stands at less than half of 1% (less than 500 votes).

With 40,000 vote-by-mail and provisional ballots still to be counted, the race is way too close to call. That's why it's critical for us to make sure all the votes are counted in CA-04.

Please contribute to Charlie Brown's Election Protection Fund today!

Charlie's opponent, Tom McClintock, has hired an election attorney and brought in a team of lawyers to "watch" the locations where absentee and provisional ballots are being counted. McClintock's team is doing everything they can to challenge the votes of thousands of people who faithfully cast their ballots.

Charlie needs our help to fight back.

And DFA has done the same:

In 2000, we lost the election when the Bush campaign beat us in the legal and media fight that followed. In 2004, we had to force a recount in the Washington State Governor's race and we won because you delivered the resources to make it happen.

We need to raise at least $40,000 by Monday to back up these races with the resources they need right now.

CONTRIBUTE $50 TO THE DFA COUNT EVERY VOTE FUND

In 2004, we raised over $250,000 for the Washington State recount. This year, we need $40,000 right now to keep the GOP dirty tricks at bay and make sure every vote is counted fairly.

DFA's Grassroots All-Star Charlie Brown needs resources to fend off a team of Republican lawyers who, as I write this message, are challenging every Democratic ballot before the FIRST count has even been completed. Charlie is down by less than 500 votes with over 15,000 votes still to be counted. He needs our help to make sure every vote is counted.

(Note: it's now 889 votes with over 48,000 votes left to be counted)

CA Campaign Update: CA-03, CA-04, CA-11, CA-41, CA-45, SD-19,

And away we, er, go.

• CA-03: Bill Durston, who is showing lots of strength in his race against Dan Lungren, has earned the support of the Alliance of Retired Americans, a 3.5 million-member group of retirees. Clearly this came on the heels of Durston's strong support for a not-for-profit health care system:

Dr. Durston has also been a strong proponent of universal health care. “It’s always been my philosophy that access to necessary medical care is a basic human right, not a privilege based on one’s ability to pay. We’re the only western industrialized country in the world that doesn’t have some form of universal health care, yet we pay twice as much per capita as the other countries for medical care.”

Durston is starting to get some major attention after that last poll. Expect him to attack Lungren on his vote for the bailout over the next 27 days.

• CA-04: Lots going on here. After vowing to shut down his account for 2010 statewide races, professional politician Tom McClintock just couldn't close the door.

But four weeks before the Nov. 4 election, McClintock's account remains open and active, as the Thousand Oaks lawmaker has doled out thousands of dollars to fellow Republicans in the last week.

McClintock made $3,600 donations, the maximum allowed under state law, to a trio of Republican candidates for the Legislature: Senate candidates Tony Strickland and Greg Aghazarian and Assembly hopeful Jack Sieglock.

His Democratic opponent, retired Air Force Lt. Col. Charlie Brown, made hay of McClintock's multiple accounts over the summer, calling him a career politician in search of a job.

"What office are you running for?" Brown said in a July statement.

I just find it interesting that Republicans are that worried about Jack Sieglock. Go Alyson Huber! Of course, the other half of this is that McClintock is a huge hypocrite, but you knew that.

In other news, Charlie Brown has a new ad out comparing professional politician McClintock to his record of service. Truth Fights Back, John Kerry's group, is getting Charlie's back over that ridiculous anti-military smear of McClintock's. Brown also signed the Children’s Defense Council’s Pledge to ensure affordable health care for every child and every pregnant woman. I very much liked this strong take in the press release:

“Tom McClintock gets free healthcare, a free car, free gas, and tax free per diems he’s not entitled to, yet has voted to restrict the ability of Californians to see a doctor of their choice and fought against helping our most vulnerable citizens access meaningful healthcare coverage,” said Retired USAF Lt. Col. Charlie Brown “His record of inaction has not only helped drive up the cost of healthcare for every Californian, it’s illustrative of a career politician hypocrite who would rather serve himself, than solve problems.”

Earlier this year, McClintock authored SB 1669, which would have made it easier for health insurance companies to deny the health claims of Californians on the basis of pre-existing condition. In fact, SB 1669 would have extended the period that insurers could look back in your medical history from 12 months to 10 years.

“Tom McClintock’s idea of healthcare reform is writing a law that says if you have a medical problem, you can’t get healthcare coverage,” Brown said. “This misguided bill could have literally cost millions of Californians who have battled and overcome ailments ranging from diabetes, to mild cardiac conditions or cancer their lives. It was so misguided, it never came up for a floor vote and not a single healthcare organization or institution signed on to support it.

Also, Mcjoan at the Great Orange Satan had a good piece based on some of her time in the district recently. This is big:

The campaign has seven offices across the nine counties in the huge district, one of the most beautiful in the country, spanning the Sierras. With four regional field directors, seven organizers and 25 paid canvassers, the campaign has knocked on more than 120,000 doors and made over 300,000 phone calls. Hundreds of new Democrats have been registered. This is the kind of retail politics that allows Democrats to win in Republican districts, in fact it's about the only way to run successfully in a tough district. McClintock, by contrast, has basically no field operation.

That ground game is going to win it for Charlie.

• CA-11: Continuing his quest to be the most overhyped Republican challenger this cycle, Dean Andal continues to dodge the question of whether or not he supported the Paulson bailout plan. He literally has no idea how to handle it, preferring to hide behind the idea that it would be inappropriate to comment because he's not in office. Yeah, uh, that's kind of the point. You say how you would be different from the current office-holder as a means to get the job. What a loser.

• CA-41, CA-45: Haven't written much about Tim Prince's race in San Bernardino County against Jerry "Lobbyists Are Funding My Congressional Portrait" Lewis, but somehow his campaign got the local paper to call it a tough race.

Prince criticized Lewis' use of earmarks, the pet projects that lawmakers attach to spending bills, in some cases without a vote.

"Jerry Lewis is totally void of morality when it comes to earmarks," he said, pointing to Lewis' ties to Bill Lowery, a longtime friend and lobbyist. "When I'm congressman, the mayor of Beaumont and the mayor of Apple Valley can pick up the phone and call me for help. They don't have to call a lobbyist who happens to be my best friend."

One thing that Prince would be better advised to focus on is that his district has one of the highest rates of foreclosures in the entire country. The highest? CA-45, where Mary Bono-Mack is facing affordable housing expert Julie Bornstein. If there was ever a reason to create a single-issue candidacy, this is it, and for Bornstein, who has an easier time of it with a less partisan electorate, that could be a real opening in the final month.

• SD-19: Calitics Match candidate Hannah-Beth Jackson is attacking Tony Strickland for greenwashing his environmental credentials in a very, shall we say, familiar way:



Of course, I'm happy to have provided the template for calling out Strickland on this nonsense. There are in addition lots of IE attacks in this race as it nears the home stretch.

"Calitics Match" Q3 Fundraising: Republicans Think You're Stupid

(cross-posted at Calitics)

The most remarkable quote of the week came from a backbencher Yacht Party Republican named Mark Wyland, commenting on the historically late state budget. If the California Democratic Party had a locker room, this would be serious bulletin-board material:

Voters are unlikely to punish lawmakers for the budget delay in any substantive way on Nov. 4 unless it's to pass a ballot measure that would change how political districts are drawn, said state Sen. Mark Wyland (R-Carlsbad).

"My experience with voters is that they really don't care how long it takes to get a budget," Wyland said, following his participation in a panel discussion at an event on reforming state government.

According to Wyland, prolonged budget stalemates like this year's sometimes encourage voters to keep their incumbents. Because districts are usually heavily skewed in registration to one party or another, he said, sitting legislators are more likely to hear encouragement for their party's ideological position than disfavor.

And voting against the party - in Wyland's example, for tax raises or to reinstate the unpopular vehicle-license fee - is an invitation to face a primary challenge in the next election cycle, he said.

This is the calcified opinion from the Yacht Party, and why they'll never be moved from their ideological perches. They believe that they have more to fear from internal challenges on the grounds of insufficient fealty to failed conservative policies than from the consequences of those policies. And there's a lot of evidence on their side, although not as much as they think.

But the most glaring point made in this statement is one of contempt. It shows contempt for voters to act in the best interest of an ideology than in the best interest of the state. It shows contempt for voters to hold the budget hostage, causing extreme hardship in the lives of state employees, community health centers, policemen and firefighters, and public schools, and expect nobody to notice. It shows contempt for voters to use the tyranny of the minority to advance a cause completely at odds with the prevailing opinion of the state. Real people were affected and harmed by this budget, and all of us will be in the future as the bills of conservative borrow-and-spend economics and systematic destruction of government come due.

And the thing is, Wyland is relying on a failed model. Demographic shifts and a reckoning of the failure of conservatism has made no district safe. Indeed Californians can punish Yacht Party Republicans for their intransigence and obstructionism. There are a number of races at the federal and state level where Democrats have more than a chance to unseat Republicans and turn seats blue. In fact, with some luck and proper resources we can get very close to that 2/3 majority needed to pass budgets and fix the structural revenue deficit. That's where you come in.

The Calitics Editorial Board has identified five seats which strike a balance between winnable races and progressive leadership. We've decided to start a major fundraising push for these five candidates between now and the end of the quarterly reporting requirement on September 30. That gives us only a few days, but here's the kicker - Calitics will match every donation made to these candidates up to $500 each, for a grand total of a $2,500 candidate match.

Please visit our special Calitics Match ActBlue page and support any or all of these five great candidates:

Charlie Brown (CA-04): A recent Research 2000 poll showed Brown leading perennial candidate Tom McClintock 46-41 in this deep red district. Brown, a retired Air Force Lt. Colonel, nearly defeated indicted Congressman John Doolittle in 2006 and has shown tremendous leadership on veteran's issues and the FISA fight before even coming to Congress. He's a better Democrat we can all be proud of.

Debbie Cook (CA-46): Running in a tough district against certifiably crazy Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, Debbie Cook is running with an unabashedly progressive message. The Mayor of Huntington Beach, Cook is an expert on peak oil and energy issues, and would instantly be one of the most knowledgeable voices in the Congress on how to move toward a post-carbon future. She also believes in ending the Iraq occupation responsibly and achieving the goal of quality and affordable health care for all.

Hannah-Beth Jackson (SD-19): A former Assemblywoman and creator of Speak Out California, a blog and resource for Golden State progressives, Hannah-Beth Jackson has proven her progressive bona fides time and again. Running in rapidly changing Ventura County against the former state director of the Club for Growth, Tony Strickland, Jackson can prove that even Tom McClintock's old seat is not safe from the progressive wave. She would lead in the State Senate on issues of economic justice and the environment.

Alyson Huber (AD-10): AD-10 is another district where the demographics are changing, and Alyson Huber is perfectly suited to take advantage of this and turn the seat blue. Huber, an attorney and working mother, is focused on increasing access to health care and education for all Californians. She would help tremendously in bringing us closer to that needed 2/3 majority.

Manuel Perez (AD-80): A transformative leader, Manuel Perez is ready to take that leadership to Sacramento. Part of a growing group of Hispanic-Americans in the Coachella Valley who are leading a major progressive challenge to the typical politics of the region, Manuel has created community health clinics, served on the Coachella School Board as a trustee, taught classes, and organized his community to fight for change. He is uniquely suited to take his varied experience and lead in the State Legislature.

The time is tight, but we need to make Mark Wyland and the Yacht Party Republicans he represents cry. Please contribute to our Calitics Match fundraising effort before Tuesday!

Campaign Update: CA-03, CA-04, CA-50, CA-46, SD-19, CA-42, LA Board of Supes

The latest from the campaigns:

• General: Democratic challengers ought to take a close look at two bills passed through the House this week that make conservative priorities pretty clear. HR 6983, the Paul Wellstone and Pete Domenici Mental Health Parity Act, finally limits the ability of insurance companies to prohibit treatment of mental health in their policies. John Campbell, Darrell Issa, Ed Royce and Dana Rohrabacher were among the 47 Republicans to vote against it. HR 5244, the Credit Cardholders’ Bill of Rights Act of 2008, would severely limit predatory lending from an industry that is at least a partial cause of the current crisis in credit. Brian Bilbray, David Dreier, Gary Miller, Jerry Lewis, Dan Lungren, Campbell, Issa, Royce and Rohrabacher were among the 111 Republicans who voted against that. These ads write themselves.

• CA-03: Bill Durston is up with two ads, as mentioned by akogun. It's unclear how big the buy is. One is a bio spot, and the other hits Dan Lungren for his, er, unique travel plans.

• CA-04: A lot to report here. While Tom McClintock is off putting together propaganda blogs attacking Charlie Brown, and of all things, this website, he ought to be paying attention to his campaign manager problem.

The camp of Democratic candidate Charlie Brown claims evidence shows state Sen. McClintock, a Republican, effectively is a substitute Doolittle, and in particular asserts that McClintock campaign manager John Feliz’s connections to Doolittle are significant.

“John Feliz is the architect of Doolittle’s first known political-practices transgression,” said Todd Stenhouse, Brown spokesman. “The bottom line is McClintock claims not to be John Doolittle, yet he’s using his former campaign manager, and he has the same treasurer (David Bauer).”

McClintock campaign spokesman Bill George said, “John Feliz hasn’t worked for Doolittle in 18 to 20 years.”

Note that he doesn't respond to Bauer, who is still the treasurer for an active Doolittle campaign committee.

Meanwhile, Charlie Brown has endorsed the Pickens Pledge. I am in complete agreement that the Pickens Plan for energy independence is just a scheme for a rich guy to get richer, but the pledge merely calls for an energy plan to be enacted in the first 100 days of the next Administration. There is a difference.

• CA-50: Al Gore was in the district to raise money for Nick Leibham. The Leibham campaign hopes this will kick-start their efforts, but the Cook Political Report recently downgraded the race to "Solid Republican." Their belief is that these Republican districts have been injected with momentum with Sarah Palin energizing conservatives to vote. We'll see.

• CA-46: One thing is clear: Dana Rohrabacher may allow insurance companies deny treatment to the mentally ill, and he may let the credit card companies fleece his constituents, but he draws the line at the Wall Street bailout. That's nothing new - lots of lawmakers are opposed to the bailout - but of course, the fact that Debbie Cook was first out of the gate with her opposition forced his hand, to be sure. Meanwhile, Cook was feted with a "Truth To Power" at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil conference this week. On Sunday, there's a small dollar fundraiser for Cook in Palos Verdes. Details and tickets at the ActBlue page here. I will be in attendance Sunday, so please come out if you're in the area.

• CA-42: Ed Chau has put together a video about polar bears, which obviously is the most important issue affecting constituents in Mission Viejo at risk of losing their homes. Or the ethical issues of his opponent Gary Miller, one of the most corrupt lawmakers in Congress.

• SD-19: Hannah-Beth Jackson has a new ad out with some personal testimonials about her leadership on a chemical spill in her district when she was in the Assembly, and I have to say I like it.



• LA Board of Supes: Bernard Parks is using his office to try to evict supporters of Mark Ridley-Thomas. Mayor Villaraigosa has stepped in on the side of the tenants.

On Tuesday, Villaraigosa was forced into the fray - reluctantly, his aides said - after Parks had the city send a 60-day eviction notice to Strategic Concepts of Organizing and Policy Education, a nonprofit focused on community organizing and job training.

Parks said SCOPE was using the old fire station at 1715 Florence Ave. in South Los Angeles to help the Ridley-Thomas campaign, which the group denies.

SD-19: Progressive Movement And Enviros Team Up To Fight Greenwashing

The most hotly anticipated State Senate election this year is in the 19th District covering Santa Barbara and Ventura County, between Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson and Republican Tony Strickland. Though the two are almost polar opposites, the chunk of the district in Santa Barbara, where residents have long memories about the 1969 oil spill, makes it impossible for Republicans to win with their "Drill Now" message on energy. So Tony Strickland opted to run some ads that Al Gore might have run were he to be contesting in the district, highlighting renewable energy through wind, solar, algae, tidal and other forms. This is completely at odds with Strickland's doctrinaire Republican record, with votes against green building standards, minimum renewable energy standards, and even fuel-efficient tires. Strickland has taken money from Big Oil and stood with global warming denialists in the recent past. It's incongruous for him to carry a pro-environment message.

So I hooked up with the Courage Campaign and the California League of Conservation Voters to put together a little video highlighting this incongruity.



What's interesting is that the Courage Campaign's Web tool invited those supporters who received their email blast to spread the word, and they were so successful, both online political reporters at the Ventura County Star, the region's biggest newspaper, covered the video. More important, the Jackson campaign has been energized to fight back against some of Strickland allies' misleading ads on taxes, and in doing so buttresses the outside groups' take about Strickland's terrible environmental record.



So progressive groups are ensuring that Strickland gets away with nothing in this race, and in turn the Jackson campaign is fighting back as well and counter-punching swiftly and effectively. This is a growing success story in the 19th.

Money Matters

Charlie Brown reported $225,000 in the first quarter of 2008, with over a million dollars raised throughout the campaign. He's had 12,000 donors thus far.

Russ Warner took in $100,000 in the first quarter and has $220,000 cash on hand.

But I was more interested in this story, which shows the CNA making an electoral play in two swing districts to help the Democrats reach a 2/3 majority.

This year the nurses union also is backing two Democrats vying for open seats which are being vacated by Republicans:

Up north, longtime San Ramon Valley School Board trustee Joan Buchanan seeks the East Bay’s open 15th Assembly District being vacated by termed-out Assemblyman Guy Houston. In January she reported a $166,000 war chest and most likely will face off against San Ramon Mayor Abram Wilson.

Down south, former Santa Barbara Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson wants to fill Ventura County’s open 19th District state Senate seat being surrendered by termed-out Tom McClintock, who’s heading north to run for an open congressional seat near Sacramento. Ex-Assemblyman Tony Strickland is the GOP’s anointed successor.

“We only need two more Democrats in the senate and six more in the assembly to have a two-thirds Democratic majority,” said CNA legislative director Donna Gerber, who spent six years as a Contra Costa County supervisor.

“When there are budget cuts those budget cuts pretty much happen in health care and education. So for sure we are supporting Hannah-Beth Jackson and Joan Buchanan. Those are two that we’re putting a lot of our energy into.”

If labor jumps in explicitly in these legislative races to aid in the drive for 2/3 then we'll have a distinct financial advantage. Remember that the CA Republican Party is essentially broke. This is the best news I've heard all week and I know the rest of labor will follow suit.

SD-19: Dantona Drops Out

In what I can only describe as a shocking development, Jim Dantona, the moderate Democrat looking to notch a pickup in the Thousand Oaks/Simi Valley/Santa Barbara Senate seat held currently by Tom McClintock, has dropped out of the race, clearing the field for Hannah Beth-Jackson. This will allow Jackson to go up against Tony Strickland, in all likelihood, in this Senate seat which is rapidly becoming a bluer district. Here's his statement:

“Our polling shows I could defeat Strickland by as much as 10% and I would certainly do well against Jackson here in east Ventura County where polling indicates she is a relative unknown. But my intention was never to run against a fellow Democrat for this seat. I was running to bring leadership to this district that represented the will of the people, instead of the continual fringes of partisanship.”

“Even with solid polling numbers, Jackson and I would have to spend a fortune against each other and that was never my intention. Tony has already put together a healthy war chest with no primary battle. The reality is that if we fight each other, we may as well hand him the Senate. I am a team player and I wish Hannah Beth only best in her race.”

“As for me, business is very good and I am sure to be back and forth between Sacramento, Washington D.C. and Simi Valley. I am in negotiations with several companies in Italy and I’ve been asked to get involved in the Presidential elections, which I am very much looking forward to.” (Dantona previously consulted for Presidents Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter)

“I will continue to work for the causes I believe in and I will always reach across the political aisle to garner support for our community.”

I did not see this one coming, but I wish Hannah-Beth Jackson great luck in turning this seat blue and getting us closer to a 2/3 majority in the Senate. Hopefully Dantona will assist in that effort.

The Drive For 2/3: Democratic Values On The Ronald Reagan Freeway

(The second in an occasional series of articles highlighting California legislative districts and candidates that could provide Democrats with a vital 2/3 majority.)

On the drive out from Santa Monica to Simi Valley, there's a moment when you know that you've left Los Angeles County and ventured into Ventura. Suddenly, the greenery recedes away, the canyon walls rise, and the scene becomes positively dramatic. If you let your mind wander, you could picture yourself in the middle of a John Ford movie backdrop or a national monument somewhere in Utah, despite being just 35 miles from downtown LA.

I was headed out to a fundraiser, driving along the 118 Freeway, which area transportation poohbahs see fit to remind you is named the "Ronald Reagan Freeway" about every 8/10th of a mile. Astonishingly enough, this was a Democratic fundraiser. For a candidate seeking a seat held by Tom McClintock, arguably the most rock-ribbed conservative in the entire state. And it's a seat Democrats can win. Things are changing along the Ronald Reagan Freeway.

If you want to look at it statistically, there's no better resource than ortcutt's fantastic rundown. The raw numbers are pretty clear. Over the last 5 years, Senate District 19, serving Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties, along with a sliver of LA County at Santa Clarita, has gone from a 7-point Republican registration advantage to just over a 4-point one, one of the larger moves in the whole state. The state's districts were designed not to have any variability, and yet that's what's happening. And this is not just about registration. Feinstein and Boxer both carried this district, and in 2004 Bush carried it by a mere two points. And that was before his disastrous second term. For this and other reasons, the demographics are changing here.

SD-19 (here's a map) covers major areas like Santa Clarita in LA County, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Camarillo (hello outlet malls) and San Buenavento in Ventura, and large sections of Santa Barbara County like the city of Santa Barbara. Far more of the district is located in Ventura County, however, and the area has seen a migration of sorts, as residents priced out of the wealthier Santa Barbara housing market have moved in. And Ventura County Democrats have been relentless. I have seen their work up close; my region as an AD delegate stretches up through this district, and I have seen presentations of the innovative efforts that were instrumental in closing the registration gap. These shifts did not happen by accident. Sure, the different socioeconomic shifts played a part, as well as the failed leadership of the President and an incumbent State Senator who values budget numbers in a ledger far more than constituent services. But more than that, they were the work of aggressive new tactics. One of these programs is Vote Blue Committee Central Coast, designed to register and bring to the polls 13,900 new Democrats in 2008. The group is targeting new residents, building a reliable, locally-based voter file, and encouraging vote-by-mail. This is the kind of new tactics we need to see replicated throughout California to realize the goals of a true 58-county strategy.

This is why I'm excited about SD-19, regardless of who ultimately runs in the general election. On the Republican side, Tom McClintock is a termed-out incumbent who is already raising money for yet another statewide run, this time for the Board of Equalization. I'd be absolutely shocked if this committed conservative would go back on core ideology and decide to run a third term, should the ballot initiative pass and allow him to do so. Anyway, there's already a candidate, last year's State Controller nominee Tony Strickland. He has the signed endorsement of every member of the Republican Caucus. He's looking to join his wife, an Assemblywoman, back in Sacramento. But he's really just looking for something to do until Elton Gallegly retires from the Congress. There's no burning desire to serve the public here, just a resume-builder until Strickland graduates to the seat he thinks he's entitled to.

Which is why I think it's healthy to have two excellent candidates in a primary, raising the profile of Democratic values, fighting for the right to take down Strickland next November. We all know about Hannah-Beth Jackson from her incredible work at Speak Out California and her tireless advocacy of progressive ideals. Let me tell you a little bit about Jim Dantona, who's been in the race about four months and who you may not know as much about. First of all, Ventura County Democratic activists in the area pushed very hard for him to run. I usually give latitude to the locals on the ground for determining who is their best candidate to serve their district. In this case, Dantona has a resume that is undeniably impressive. After a brief baseball career with the Chicago Cubs in 1969, he taught elementary school before spending 10 years as chief of staff to longtime Senate President Pro Tem David Roberti. Later, he founded an organization called "Baseballers Against Drugs" to teach kids the importance of staying clean and addiction-free. And he's a single parent of three grown children.

I attended a fundraiser for Dantona last Thursday, featuring longtime friend and former Maryland Lt. Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. The blogger Mark Gage at Conejo Valley Democrat, who I met at the event, has an excellent writeup. Dantona likes to style himself a "centrist," and I have no illusions that he'll be with the most progressive elements of the party on every issue. But I will say this. The three main points in his stump speech were jobs, health care for every Californian, and scrapping No Child Left Behind. As centrism goes, I'd say he's more Tip O'Neill than Joe Lieberman. And he didn't have a bad word to say about Hannah-Beth Jackson, which to me is crucial.

I'm agnostic about the primary, other than thinking it's very good for the Democratic Party in this area to have two Democrats discussing important issues that people in this district haven't heard about for 8 years. The locals clearly see this as a terrific opportunity to change the seat and get halfway to that elusive 2/3 majority in the Senate. And it would obviously set Republicans spinning in their McMansions to see a Democrat representing the towns along the Ronald Reagan Freeway.