SD-19: Dantona Drops Out

In what I can only describe as a shocking development, Jim Dantona, the moderate Democrat looking to notch a pickup in the Thousand Oaks/Simi Valley/Santa Barbara Senate seat held currently by Tom McClintock, has dropped out of the race, clearing the field for Hannah Beth-Jackson. This will allow Jackson to go up against Tony Strickland, in all likelihood, in this Senate seat which is rapidly becoming a bluer district. Here's his statement:

“Our polling shows I could defeat Strickland by as much as 10% and I would certainly do well against Jackson here in east Ventura County where polling indicates she is a relative unknown. But my intention was never to run against a fellow Democrat for this seat. I was running to bring leadership to this district that represented the will of the people, instead of the continual fringes of partisanship.”

“Even with solid polling numbers, Jackson and I would have to spend a fortune against each other and that was never my intention. Tony has already put together a healthy war chest with no primary battle. The reality is that if we fight each other, we may as well hand him the Senate. I am a team player and I wish Hannah Beth only best in her race.”

“As for me, business is very good and I am sure to be back and forth between Sacramento, Washington D.C. and Simi Valley. I am in negotiations with several companies in Italy and I’ve been asked to get involved in the Presidential elections, which I am very much looking forward to.” (Dantona previously consulted for Presidents Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter)

“I will continue to work for the causes I believe in and I will always reach across the political aisle to garner support for our community.”

I did not see this one coming, but I wish Hannah-Beth Jackson great luck in turning this seat blue and getting us closer to a 2/3 majority in the Senate. Hopefully Dantona will assist in that effort.

The Drive For 2/3: Democratic Values On The Ronald Reagan Freeway

(The second in an occasional series of articles highlighting California legislative districts and candidates that could provide Democrats with a vital 2/3 majority.)

On the drive out from Santa Monica to Simi Valley, there's a moment when you know that you've left Los Angeles County and ventured into Ventura. Suddenly, the greenery recedes away, the canyon walls rise, and the scene becomes positively dramatic. If you let your mind wander, you could picture yourself in the middle of a John Ford movie backdrop or a national monument somewhere in Utah, despite being just 35 miles from downtown LA.

I was headed out to a fundraiser, driving along the 118 Freeway, which area transportation poohbahs see fit to remind you is named the "Ronald Reagan Freeway" about every 8/10th of a mile. Astonishingly enough, this was a Democratic fundraiser. For a candidate seeking a seat held by Tom McClintock, arguably the most rock-ribbed conservative in the entire state. And it's a seat Democrats can win. Things are changing along the Ronald Reagan Freeway.

If you want to look at it statistically, there's no better resource than ortcutt's fantastic rundown. The raw numbers are pretty clear. Over the last 5 years, Senate District 19, serving Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties, along with a sliver of LA County at Santa Clarita, has gone from a 7-point Republican registration advantage to just over a 4-point one, one of the larger moves in the whole state. The state's districts were designed not to have any variability, and yet that's what's happening. And this is not just about registration. Feinstein and Boxer both carried this district, and in 2004 Bush carried it by a mere two points. And that was before his disastrous second term. For this and other reasons, the demographics are changing here.

SD-19 (here's a map) covers major areas like Santa Clarita in LA County, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Camarillo (hello outlet malls) and San Buenavento in Ventura, and large sections of Santa Barbara County like the city of Santa Barbara. Far more of the district is located in Ventura County, however, and the area has seen a migration of sorts, as residents priced out of the wealthier Santa Barbara housing market have moved in. And Ventura County Democrats have been relentless. I have seen their work up close; my region as an AD delegate stretches up through this district, and I have seen presentations of the innovative efforts that were instrumental in closing the registration gap. These shifts did not happen by accident. Sure, the different socioeconomic shifts played a part, as well as the failed leadership of the President and an incumbent State Senator who values budget numbers in a ledger far more than constituent services. But more than that, they were the work of aggressive new tactics. One of these programs is Vote Blue Committee Central Coast, designed to register and bring to the polls 13,900 new Democrats in 2008. The group is targeting new residents, building a reliable, locally-based voter file, and encouraging vote-by-mail. This is the kind of new tactics we need to see replicated throughout California to realize the goals of a true 58-county strategy.

This is why I'm excited about SD-19, regardless of who ultimately runs in the general election. On the Republican side, Tom McClintock is a termed-out incumbent who is already raising money for yet another statewide run, this time for the Board of Equalization. I'd be absolutely shocked if this committed conservative would go back on core ideology and decide to run a third term, should the ballot initiative pass and allow him to do so. Anyway, there's already a candidate, last year's State Controller nominee Tony Strickland. He has the signed endorsement of every member of the Republican Caucus. He's looking to join his wife, an Assemblywoman, back in Sacramento. But he's really just looking for something to do until Elton Gallegly retires from the Congress. There's no burning desire to serve the public here, just a resume-builder until Strickland graduates to the seat he thinks he's entitled to.

Which is why I think it's healthy to have two excellent candidates in a primary, raising the profile of Democratic values, fighting for the right to take down Strickland next November. We all know about Hannah-Beth Jackson from her incredible work at Speak Out California and her tireless advocacy of progressive ideals. Let me tell you a little bit about Jim Dantona, who's been in the race about four months and who you may not know as much about. First of all, Ventura County Democratic activists in the area pushed very hard for him to run. I usually give latitude to the locals on the ground for determining who is their best candidate to serve their district. In this case, Dantona has a resume that is undeniably impressive. After a brief baseball career with the Chicago Cubs in 1969, he taught elementary school before spending 10 years as chief of staff to longtime Senate President Pro Tem David Roberti. Later, he founded an organization called "Baseballers Against Drugs" to teach kids the importance of staying clean and addiction-free. And he's a single parent of three grown children.

I attended a fundraiser for Dantona last Thursday, featuring longtime friend and former Maryland Lt. Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. The blogger Mark Gage at Conejo Valley Democrat, who I met at the event, has an excellent writeup. Dantona likes to style himself a "centrist," and I have no illusions that he'll be with the most progressive elements of the party on every issue. But I will say this. The three main points in his stump speech were jobs, health care for every Californian, and scrapping No Child Left Behind. As centrism goes, I'd say he's more Tip O'Neill than Joe Lieberman. And he didn't have a bad word to say about Hannah-Beth Jackson, which to me is crucial.

I'm agnostic about the primary, other than thinking it's very good for the Democratic Party in this area to have two Democrats discussing important issues that people in this district haven't heard about for 8 years. The locals clearly see this as a terrific opportunity to change the seat and get halfway to that elusive 2/3 majority in the Senate. And it would obviously set Republicans spinning in their McMansions to see a Democrat representing the towns along the Ronald Reagan Freeway.

Thoughts on Region 10 and Democratic Action in Ventura County

This weekend I attended a pre-convention meeting for Region 10 of the California Democratic Party, which stretches from Santa Monica all the way up to the Monterey/San Luis Obispo County line. This is a big coastal region, parts of which have not been sufficiently Democratic over the years. But there are some great people in the trenches doing the necessary work to change that. Here are some disconnected thoughts:

• It is extremely important to spread the Democratic message into outlying counties, because we can't expect to solely depend on LA and SF to carry us through. In 1992, Democrats controlled 41 counties in California; by 2006, that number had dwindled to 22.

• One of the most vibrant areas of the state for Democrats is Ventura County. Whether it's because of demographic shifts (more people moving in from Santa Barbara) or a lot of hard work, the results are impressive. While statewide, Democratic registration has faltered over the past 15 years, in Ventura County Democrats hold a scant 5,000 vote disadvantage currently, compared to 15,000 not but a few years ago.

• One of the great pilot programs that Democrats in Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties have rolled out is called Vote Blue. This is a neighbor-to-neighbor program that uses targeted canvassing to spread the progressive message in communities. They get new homeowner information and arrive at the new resident's doorstep, saying "Hi, we're your neighbors, here's some voter registration information for this area, here's some information on the Democratic agenda." I know we bloggers like to stay on the Internets and ensure never having to talk to anyone, but there's no substitute for this kind of real-life neighbor-to-neighbor contact. They also sweeten the pot by adding a 3-month free subscription to the local paper, which the papers are all too happy to give them. This is the kind of thing Democrats all over the state should be doing on a weekly basis, not just around elections. You can get more informaiton at the link.

• There is strong support at the grassroots for a 58-county strategy, and every single delegate reading this needs to add their endorsement to that issue and make sure the Resolutions Committee is flooded with people supporting it.

• The SD-19 race is not going to be a walkover for Republicans, even though it's currently held by Tom McClintock. I met Jim Dantona at the meeting, and hope to do a longer piece on his chances later. He ran for County Supervisor in Simi Valley last time out, easily the most Republican city in the region, and garnered 48% of the vote in a district that is something like +30 Republican registration. We may have parity in registration for this Senate district by the time this race comes around in 2008, and Dantona appears to be running. Keep this one on the radar screen.

• Another great success story was relayed by Henry Vandemire, chair of the Computer and Internet Caucus and head of the Big Bear Lake Democratic Club. Big Bear is also 2/1 Republican, and yet they managed to get 3 Democrats on the City Council for the first time in as long as anyone can remember. And they did it entirely through civic action, visibility and hard work.

There are opportunities for the party to grow, and there would be even more if the Party leaders fully commit to a 58-county strategy and strengthen the efforts of these progressive leaders in red counties. The Party must live up to its commitments of supporting Democrats everywhere. That means providing the money they promise to candidates, like Ferial Masry in AD-37 and Jill Martinez in CA-24 (that's very likely to be an open seat next time around). These two are both running again, and can win if they get even a modicum of support from the state party.

That's all I've got for now. I invited many of the people at the meeting to start posting on Calitics, hopefully we'll begin to see Ventura and Santa Barbara better represented here.