CA Campaign Update: CA-04, CA-45, CA-46, AD-78

A few odds and ends:

• CA-04: Tom McClintock is bringing out the big guns to help his cash-strapped campaign - Ron Paul is all in!

Paul, the libertarian-Republican congressman from Texas who raised more than $34 million for his presidential race, sent out an e-mail last week urging his massive donor base to contribute to McClintock.

"Tom McClintock is one of the most promising warriors in the fight against big government we have seen in a long time, and the special interests and big bankers know it. ... You have stood with me as....

...I campaigned for the Presidency to return our federal government to its proper role. Will you help me bring a reliable ally to Congress?"

This brings up some interesting questions. Does Tom McClintock think we should withdraw from Iraq and dozens of other military bases around the world? Does he believe in abolishing the Federal Reserve? The coinage of free silver?

They do have one thing in common, however - white supremacist supporters.

• CA-45: New voter registration statistics have not been released by the Secretary of State's office, but I think they will show good news for Democrats across the state. One statistic that is measurable is the early voting number, and in CA-45, it's good news for Julie Bornstein.

Democrats have significantly narrowed the early voting gap in the 45th Congressional District, an encouraging sign for challenger Julie Bornstein in her battle to unseat Congresswoman Mary Bono Mack (R-Palm Springs), according to Bornstein campaign manager Walter Ludwig.

In both 2004 and 2006, registered Republicans accounted for about 54 percent of early voters, compared with just 34 percent for Democrats. Mack, now a four-term incumbent, cruised to re-election both years by more than 20 points.

This year, early voting is much more evenly split. The latest numbers from the Riverside County Registrar of Voters show that registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by just five percent among early voters.

It's like the entire Republican machine all collapsed at once. They used to be MASTERS at getting absentee votes out. This year, there's either no such effort, or it's being matched by Democrats. CA-45 is under the radar, but these numbers suggest that it shouldn't be.

• CA-46: At the Great Orange Satan, Devilstower has a great piece that could start a new meme about Debbie Cook - the anti-Palin.

Suppose there was a candidate who was as bright and as capable as Sarah Palin is confused and incompetent.

Someone who had a record of working with environmental groups, and who had a real understanding of the threat posed by our dependence on fossil fuels. Someone with a degree in earth science and the long experience to make the claim of being a genuine energy expert.

Someone who not only knew science, but also had a law degree, and was a graduate of the leadership program at the Kennedy School of Government. Someone who has held positions of honor in state and national commissions. Someone who was well respected for both her intellect and her passion.

Suppose there was a candidate who had been mayor of, not a tiny town, but a medium-sized city. And suppose she took that position as a Democrat in the midst of a heavily Republican district.

Suppose there was someone who was everything that Sarah Palin is not.

Fortunately for us, there's Debbie Cook.

Read the whole thing. And help Debbie if you can.

• AD-78: Bill Cavala, who worked the last close race in this district, took a peek at some new registration numbers which show a real advantage for Marty Block:

This year the new registration ‘close’ figures show the Democrats with 101, 131 registrants, an increase of about 4100 from the last Presidential year. DTS registrations are 49,855, an increase of about 5800 from 2004. Most remarkably, however, Republican registration has fallen by almost 8000 – from 82,615 four years ago to 74,700 today.

This means the net change is Dems up 4100 and Reps down 8000 or 12,100 in favor of the Democrat over 2004.

Forget the increase in DTS registrations – which vote more Democratic than Republican in San Diego. Starting out down 12,000 in a seat where they won by 2000 with an incumbent – it’s open this year – puts the Republican candidate squarely behind the 8 ball.

Just one of the many Assembly races where this is so.

State Legislature Picture - One Week Out

As Brian hit earlier today, these are tough times for the California Yacht Party. There are competitive races in the state Legislature, in particular the Assembly, in over 30% of the seats currently held by Republicans. Democratic allies are obviously feeling excited about these races as well, as the independent expenditures have jumped. Here's my list of the top races in order of likelihood of a flip:

ASSEMBLY:
1) AD-80. Manuel Perez (D) is poised for victory in this Palm Springs-area seat. The polls have shown double-digit leads. LIKELY DEM.

2) AD-78. Marty Block (D), the recipient of a lot of that largesse from the IE's, is not in an easy race with Republican John McCann (not McCain) by any stretch. The ads have been tough on both sides and the California Dental Association is unusually interested in knocking off Block. But it's a Democratic year and the top of the ticket should help him. LEAN DEM.

3) AD-15. The big news here is that Ed Chavez, the Republican mayor of Stockton, endorsed Joan Buchanan for this seat. Chavez is a moderate and a former Democrat, but an endorsement like this in one of the bigger cities in the district is helpful. Buchanan looks strong. LEAN DEM.

4) AD-10. Calitics Match candidate Alyson Huber has her very first ad on the air, attacking her opponent Jack Sieglock for being a "career politician." It's funny, too (although I think everyone has to stop with the I'm a Mac/I'm a PC parodies). The response from the Sieglock camp has been to call Huber a carpetbagger, but considering she's lived in the area and went to college there before transferring to Cornell, that hit doesn't make a lot of sense. Unions are spending big up here. I think this one goes late into Election Night. TOSS UP.

5) AD-26. Jack O'Connell just endorsed John Eisenhut, and the state Democratic Party obviously has some numbers it likes - they just poured $300,000 into the race. There's going to be a major flooding of the district with cash in the final week, and Eisenhut has a 5:1 cash-on-hand advantage. I really think this one is close, with Bill Berryhill slightly favored. SLIGHT LEAN REPUBLICAN.

6) AD-36. It really would be incredible to pull off this race. A Democrat has not represented Palmdale in this seat since 1974. But Linda Jones has a real chance to pull this off. Republican Steve Knight is an LAPD officer and he's still favored, but I'm hoping against hope. This is the tipping point race. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

7) AD-37. Ferial Masry's third try to unseat Audra Strickland (R) is getting a lot of residual help in this race from the hotly contested Senate contest in SD-19 between Tony Strickland. I don't see a lot of people voting for one Strickland and not the other, so it's even more helpful in this case. Timm Herdt of the Ventura County Star thinks the race is tightening - he's seen Strickland release several mailers and the Democratic Party play a bit on Masry's behalf. Alberto Torrico and Karen Bass have been in the district. This is a sleeper. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

8) AD-02. The only reason this is up there is because the guy the Republicans put up may not live in the district.

A claim that Republican Assembly candidate Jim Nielsen doesn't live in the district in which he's running has apparently led the secretary of state's office to refer the case for prosecution.

Complainant Barry Clausen of Redding received a letter from the state office, dated Tuesday. The one-page notice says it has concluded its investigation against Nielsen and referred the case for prosecution to the state attorney general's office.

Going to the AG's office is pretty far down the road. Paul Singh might just back into this race. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

9) AD-59. Anthony Adams is actually an incumbent, making this a more difficult battle. But Bill Postmus' explosion in San Bernardino county has soured the reputation of Republicans in the district, and Donald Williamson, the San Bernardino County assessor, has a decent profile. This is certainly on the far outside edge of being competitive. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

10) AD-66. There's still the idea that Grey Frandsen can steal this seat for the Democrats, and while it's unlikely against incumbent Kevin Jeffries, The local Inland Empire paper has kept an eye on this race. It's not out of the realm of possibility. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

AD-63 and AD-65 have potential as well, but this time I think they're SAFE.

SENATE:
1) SD-19. This is just an epic battle with loads of cash on both sides, mainly because it's the only seat worth playing in for the State Senate. The Ventura County Star endorsed Hannah-Beth Jackson over Tony Strickland, and she used some humor to mock Strickland's endless attack mailers. It's going to be a long night waiting for this one in Ventura and Santa Barbara County. TOSS-UP.

The Drive For 2/3: Republicans Falling Off The Cliff

There are two arguments against Prop. 11. One is that in 60% of the regions of the state, no amount of gerrymandering is going to create a competitive seat (and that's all this redistricting measure would accomplish - gerrymandering under another name). I live in Santa Monica. I have yet to get a legitimate answer about how to incorporate my 70-80% Democratic city into a contiguous region and make it competitive. You go South and there's Venice and the South Bay, and by the time you get to a Republican pocket the district is too large to include them. You go north and there's Malibu and the Palisades and blue cities up the coast. You go east and there's Los Angeles, with liberals everywhere. You go west and you're in the ocean.

The other argument is that the other 40% of the state actually has the potential for competition, and the district boundaries are indeed not constrictive. Demography is destiny but it is not static. People die, people are born, people achieve voting age. People move into cities, others move out. This demographic shift has been occurring for a while now, with the eastern counties moving back to the Democrats, and it's reaching a critical mass in 2008.

Until recently I considered the drive for a 2/3 majority in the Assembly and the Senate to be a two-year project, culminating with a new Democratic governor in 2010. That is still true in the Senate, thanks to Don Perata's bungling of races in SD-12 and SD-15. Honestly, he should be indicted for his failed leadership, forget the corruption. But in the Assembly, we absolutely have the chance to get a 2/3 majority, and everyone is starting to recognize that.

SACRAMENTO - The sliding economy and other factors are giving a lift to Democrats in key legislative races that are coming down to the wire, according to consultants working with those races.

In polls that ask whether likely voters would vote for a generic Democrat or Republican in five state Assembly districts with open seats, Democrats get the nod in all five.

What's more, in two seats held by Republicans - Assembly Districts 38 and 63 - a generic Democrat vs. Republican race is a dead heat, according to the consultants, who hosted a background briefing for reporters Tuesday.

That would be seven races, and six seats are needed for 2/3.

This has been increasingly clear over the past several months. Manuel Perez has been pulling away in his race in AD-80 against Gary Jeandron with his transformative message of social and economic justice. Marty Block has been outspending his opponent John McCann in AD-78 by over 8:1 in TV advertising, although McCann is benefiting from IEs, including, bizarrely enough, the California Dental Association. Between those two plurality-Democratic seats, and the competitive race in AD-15 with Joan Buchanan, 3 seats looked like a good haul.

At this point, Republicans ought to pull out of those 3 seats altogether and put up a firewall. Because Alyson Huber is looking very strong in AD-10. And the unions are throwing down for John Eisenhut in AD-26. And there are wild-card seats that are starting to look incredibly attractive.

The Antelope Valley, the vast open land between Los Angeles and San Bernadino counties typically isn't very hospitable territory for Democrats for the legislature. It's the home of the hard-right couple of George and Sharon Runners, who, between them, have occupied the 36th district Assembly seat for more than a decade. No Democrat has held the seat since 1974.

This year, things might be a little different. Democrats have nearly evened the registration gap, down to just a two percent GOP advantage compared to eight points just two years ago.

Enter Linda Jones, a Westside Union School District trustee and a Vice president of the Antelope Valley School Boards Association, who is making a hard run for the seat. She is taking on Palmdale City Council member Steve Knight, a former LA police officer.

Jones is no sacrificial lamb. She's been running full throttle for months, backed by labor, educators, and African-American groups. Knight, a former LA police officer, is a cookie-cutter Republican running on illegal immigration, a no tax pledge, and a strong opponent of gun control.

We can win that race. Eric Bauman tipped me off to it three months ago.

AD-37, with Ferial Masry running against Audra Strickland, is winnable too, especially if she gets a draft off of Hannah-Beth Jackson's overlapping State Senate race. And AD-63 is even on a generic ballot, according to Democratic consultants. And AD-66 could be a surprise on election night, thanks to a strong candidate in Grey Frandsen, a former employee of Russ Feingold. If you add that up, you're talking about 9 of the 32 Assembly seats held by Republicans in play, over 30%. So does that sound like gerrymandering to you? A progressive wave makes redistricting talk look ridiculous.

Alberto Torrico is giving the soft sell, but this is a great opportunity. It's a wave election, and every new voter that Obama turns out in California is a likely candidate to vote the Democratic ticket. Every new voter registered by a Congressional candidate might vote for a Democrat in the Senate and Assembly. And it's not as easy for Republicans to play defense in such an environment. They have the dismal national economic picture and the state budget crisis to contend with, and they're out of money.

If there was no excuse yesterday, there's REALLY no excuse now. This is the time. If the laws of the state government are designed to prevent change, if they force us to meet "unreachable" goals, then we reach them.

Do everything you can to get 2/3.

More from Louis Jacobson.

California Legislature - The Drive For 2/3

The California Target Book released its August "hot sheet" listing potential competitive seats throughout the state legislature. Well, two can play at this game. Here are the competitive seats as I see them and a little precis about them:

State Senate

1. SD-19. Hannah-Beth Jackson (D) v. Tony Strickland (R). Sadly, thanks to Don Perata's bungling and undermining this is likely to be the only competitive race out of the 20 up for election in the state Senate. The good news is that it would be an absolute sea change to replace Tom McClintock with a true progressive like Hannah-Beth Jackson. With Ventura County's registration flipping to Democrats over the past year, Ronald Reagan country is no longer solidly red. Hannah-Beth has been actively courting voters at community events (there's a BBQ in honor of the "Gap" firefighters on Sunday) and she's wrapped up lots of endorsements. With this being the only competitive race, expect it to be costly, as both sides throw millions into capturing the seat. A win here would put us one seat away from a 2/3 majority in the Senate.

State Assembly

1. AD-80. Manuel Perez (D) v. Gary Jeandron (R). Perez appears to have the right profile for this plurality-Democratic seat currently held by the termed-out Bonnie Garcia. The most recent poll showed him with a double-digit lead, and he's consolidating his support by earning the endorsements of the local Stonewall Democratic Club and his primary rival Greg Pettis. This race is looking strong, and hopefully the raising of performance among Hispanic voters will aid Julie Bornstein in her CA-45 race against Mary Bono.

2. AD-78. Marty Block (D) vs. John McCann (R). Block, a Board of Trustees member at San Diego Community College and former dean at San Diego State University, also has a favorable registration advantage in his race against Chula Vista Councilmember John McCann. This should be a case of party ID sweeping in a lawmaker in a progressive wave thanks to increased turnout for the Presidential election. Block needs to do his part, of course, in making the case that the 2/3 majority is vital for responsible governance.

3. AD-15. Joan Buchanan (D) v. Abram Wilson (R). After a bruising primary, San Ramon Mayor Wilson has barely survived to defend the seat held by Guy Houston against San Ramon Valley school board member Buchanan, who did not have a competitive primary. She has outraised Wilson by almost 2 to 1 so far in the race and the registration numbers are about even. I think we have a real chance here.

4. AD-30. Fran Florez (D) v. Danny Gilmore (R). This is currently a Democratic seat held by Yacht Dog Nicole Parra, who has practically endorsed the Republican Gilmore for the seat. That's unhelpful, but in a Democratic year Gilmore has an uphill climb. The California Faculty Association has targeted Gilmore in their ads that campaign on the budget, and voters in the Central Valley are fleeing the GOP in droves. Gilmore has a shot, but I think Florez is in a comfortable position.

5. AD-10. Alyson Huber (D) vs. Jack Sieglock (R). Huber, about to hold her campaign kick-off this weekend, is in a district that is rapidly changing. Registration has shifted over 3% in just two years. This is a race in the Sacramento area that Randy Bayne covers intently, and he's fairly high on Huber. Jack Sieglock is your basic Republican rubber stamp that puts "conservative Republican" in his title, and I'm not certain the district is still organized that way. This race is also seeing ads from the California Faculty Association.

6: AD-26. John Eisenhut (D) v. William Berryhill (R). This is Greg Aghazarian's old seat, also in northern California in Stanislaus and San Joaquin counties. Stanislaus recently flipped to Democrats, and Eisenhut, a local almond farmer, fits the profile of the district pretty well. Berryhill, whose brother Tom is in the Assembly, is also a farmer, and is banking on the Berryhill name ID to win. There's a good synopsis of the race here. Democrats actually have the registration edge in this district.

7. AD-36. Linda Jones (D) v. Steve Knight (R). Linda is a teacher, school board member and former vocational nurse. This is an outside shot, but I'm told that the Palmdale-area seat is turning around and may accept a Democrat this time around.

8. AD-59. Donald Williamson (D) v. Anthony Adams (R). Adams is actually an incumbent, making this a more difficult battle. But Bill Postmus' explosion in San Bernardino county has soured the reputation of Republicans in the district, and Williamson, the San Bernardino County assessor, has a decent profile in the district. This is certainly on the far outside edge of being competitive.

9. AD-37. Ferial Masry (D) v. Audra Strickland (R). This is another Republican incumbent, and it's in the same relative district as SD-19 - in fact, the Republicans in both races are Stricklands. So maybe there will be a residual effect to Hannah-Beth Jackson's efforts. Masry, an Arab-American, has been getting good press in the district and definitely has an outside chance.

New CA Registration Numbers Released

The Secretary of State has come out with her revised registration numbers, broken down by county, Congressional district, Senate district and Assembly district. I'm sure our resident numerologists will break down the numbers more closely, but here are some quick thoughts:

• There are 16,123,787 registered voters in the state, about 70% of those eligible. Democrats have a 1.8 million-vote advantage, and by percentages that translates into 43.75%-32.53%, with 19.4% decline to state. Those are significant increases in Democrats and more significant losses in Republicans from 2004.

• The room to run for Democrats is in Riverside and San Bernardino Counties. They have among the lowest registration rates in the state (only Tulare and Yuba counties have lower percentages than Riverside), and they are among the fastest-growing populations. We're actually within 5,000 votes of having a plurality of Democrats in San Bernardino County.

• CA-03 is now less than 4% difference between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans have a mere 15,000-vote lead. This is a huge opportunity. Republicans still hold an 8,000-vote advantage in CA-11, but that's dropping. We're within 19,000 votes in CA-45 and with a big voter registration drive I think that's reachable.

• SD-12 is Democratic by a 47%-35% count, and SD-15 is Democratic by a 40.5%-36% number. SD-19, the district Hannah-Beth Jackson is trying to flip, is within 10,000 votes.

• AD-80 looks to be in real good shape (46.5%-35.6%), though the participation there could be better. AD-78 is a 10-point advantage for Democrats, and AD-15 is now plurality Democratic by 3,000 votes. AD-10 is within less than 5,000 votes.

The Drive For 2/3: C'mon CDP, Come Along For The Ride

I am firmly committed to getting a 2/3 majority in both houses of the state Legislature by 2010. Fabian Nuñez believes that, in the Assembly, we can get halfway there by November.

Speaking at the Sacramento Press Club yesterday, Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez said Democrats should add three seats to their 48-32 majority in the California Assembly in November's elections.

Nunez made the prediction after new figures from the Secretary of State show a surge in Democratic registrations in all but two Assembly districts, including three held by incumbent Republicans who will be forced to leave office.

They include the desert/Riverside area seat held by Assemblywoman Bonnie Garcia, the San Diego seat of Assemblywoman Shirley Horton, and the Contra Costa/Sacramento Delta seat held by Assemblyman Guy Houston.

These are clearly the three seats to target. AD-80 (Garcia's seat) has some excellent candidates on the Democratic side, including Greg Pettis and the Hispanic Barack Obama, Manuel Perez. We have good candidates in AD-78 (Horton's old seat) and AD-15 (Houston's) as well - as those Caliticians in those districts can attest. Plus, we not only have registration advantages, but the advantage of a game-changing Democratic nominee at the top of the ticket (whether it's Obama or Clinton) that will bring new Democratic voters to the process. These three seats are prime opportunities, and there are other Assembly opportunities like Greg Aghazarian's seat (he's also termed out), and more in the Senate (Hannah Beth Jackson's bid in SD-19, the possible Jeff Denham recall, Abel Maldonado's SD-15).

However, I want to highlight this nugget about the way Assembly and Senate elections are managed in California.

If Democrats field strong candidates for these seats, we could be looking at a pickup of 2/3+ seats.

Each of the marquee races are expected to be $1 million+ contests. The new Assembly Speaker will be responsible for raising funds and overseeing the campaigns.

I've talked about this with party leaders several times, and nobody has given me an adequate explanation about this. In a way, it's a lot like the DCCC as the House-based campaign arm for national elections. But I'm struggling to understand why the Speaker (and the President Pro Tem of the Senate) have the sole responsibility of overseeing these elections and creating advertising, GOTV, etc. It seems to me that the California Democratic Party would be able to do a much better job in these districts, with their membership already on the ground and involved, and with a larger fundraising base to conduct the operations necessary. Yet for some reason, there is this bifurcation: the CDP deals with statewide races and Congressional seats, and the Assembly and Senate leadership do the legislative races. Is this just tradition? Why can't the CDP play in whatever race they wish?

This problem, or at least what I consider a problem, is compounded by the fact that we will have new leadership in the Assembly and Senate, leadership that may be unused to running multiple campaign operations out of their offices. I think Darrell Steinberg is a fine man (so does George Skelton) who's going to do a great job as the Senate leader, but I don't know how he's going to do facilitating Hannah Beth Jackson's race in the Thousand Oaks area. Furthermore, the new Assembly Speaker won't be picked for a month, and we have to start on these races right now. Obviously the Presidential race is going to take up all the oxygen in the fall, so ensuring that the Democratic candidates get their message out and the Republicans in these open seats are defined is crucial. And right now, for the next month, there's literally nobody to do that.

(Also, the proliferation of independent expenditure money in this state necessitates some organizational and financial help for legislative candidates that may otherwise just get swamped.)

I can hold judgment on the efficacy of this and bow to those wiser in the ways of California elections if I were given a satisfactory explanation for this structure. But nobody has done so, and I've spoken to a lot of people inside the CDP about this. I think 2008, in a favorable environment for Democrats, with no statewide races on the ballot at all, and with a badly broken Republican Party in California that is broke and rife with internal squabbling, would be an excellent time to shift this tradition, and for the CDP to exercise some muscle in these legislative districts, helping solid Democrats get elected and moving us ever closer to the desired 2/3 majority that we need to make the real changes necessary to move the state forward.

This is not an accusation, but a dialogue. I'm looking for ways for my party to be more effective.