New CA Registration Numbers Released

The Secretary of State has come out with her revised registration numbers, broken down by county, Congressional district, Senate district and Assembly district. I'm sure our resident numerologists will break down the numbers more closely, but here are some quick thoughts:

• There are 16,123,787 registered voters in the state, about 70% of those eligible. Democrats have a 1.8 million-vote advantage, and by percentages that translates into 43.75%-32.53%, with 19.4% decline to state. Those are significant increases in Democrats and more significant losses in Republicans from 2004.

• The room to run for Democrats is in Riverside and San Bernardino Counties. They have among the lowest registration rates in the state (only Tulare and Yuba counties have lower percentages than Riverside), and they are among the fastest-growing populations. We're actually within 5,000 votes of having a plurality of Democrats in San Bernardino County.

• CA-03 is now less than 4% difference between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans have a mere 15,000-vote lead. This is a huge opportunity. Republicans still hold an 8,000-vote advantage in CA-11, but that's dropping. We're within 19,000 votes in CA-45 and with a big voter registration drive I think that's reachable.

• SD-12 is Democratic by a 47%-35% count, and SD-15 is Democratic by a 40.5%-36% number. SD-19, the district Hannah-Beth Jackson is trying to flip, is within 10,000 votes.

• AD-80 looks to be in real good shape (46.5%-35.6%), though the participation there could be better. AD-78 is a 10-point advantage for Democrats, and AD-15 is now plurality Democratic by 3,000 votes. AD-10 is within less than 5,000 votes.

Perata "Ends" The Recall

He has no ability to do that, mind you, but in his mind he's done it.

Senate leader Don Perata announced late Wednesday that he was dropping the recall campaign of Sen. Jeff Denham, due to his "best judgment about how to stop the long, slow slide into another long stalemate" on the budget [...]

At a late afternoon news conference on the steps of the Capitol, Perata said he decided not to pursue the recall after meeting Wednesday with Senate Republican Leader Dave Cogdill.

"I told him I had come to a decision that it would seem to me to be destructive to continue the recall while at the same time he and I were going to sit down with our counterparts in the Assembly and in seven weeks try to put together a budget that may well have to eliminate a $14 billion deficit.," Perata said.

"There was no quid pro quo. I didn't ask for anything. I just told him that I did not believe that this kind of politics, cast against the huge problem that we're having in this state, made a lot of sense."

Perata said he was swayed by a conversation he had with state Treasurer Bill Lockyer "who said that you all don't have a whole lot of time this year (to agree on a budget) because we're going to be broke."

"So in contemplating that -- and remembering the (53-day) stalemate that we had last year -- which simply embittered a lot lof people to no end, to no purpose, I sat down with Dave Cogdill and talked to him about something he had said the first time we met and that was about the recall."

Well, let's say that I'm happy to have been on the right side of Prop. 93, the outcome of which will send Don Perata into the sunset. What a laughable bit of incompetence this is.

First of all, he doesn't get to say what's on the ballot and what's not. The authoritarian style of "what I say goes" is the only thing that would've doomed this otherwise perfectly justifiable recall of a legislator who forgot his district and went along with an obstructionist GOP that is harming the state to a severe degree. A real Senate leader would have broadened the race into a referendum on state Republicans and would have done very well. You either do something like this full-speed or you never start it in the first place. This half-step just furthers the narrative of Democratic weakness.

Combined with the stab in the back on SD-15, where Perata demanded that nobody contest Abel Maldonado in another winnable seat, the Senate Pro Tem has assured that there is no way we reach a 2/3 majority in 2008. It's still possible by 2010 but this is a wave election, a realignment year and we're waving the white flag in two prime Senate races. That's just stupid politics. I appreciate the need to speed along the budget; the state is broke. But this recall is over by June 3, and it's not like everything's going to be wrapped up by then. And the stupidest part is that Perata RECOGNIZES that the threat of the recall was helping provide leverage for the Republicans.

In a statement, Perata credited the recall for recent legislation that passed out of the Senate:

"The vote we couldn't get last year to close the tax loophole for yacht owners -- we got that vote," he said. "The vote we couldn't get to help homeowners facing foreclosure - we got that vote. You put everyone here on notice -- and I don't think people are going to forget that anytime soon."

No, you now let everyone off the hook because you've proven you can be bullied by a Republican hissy fit and tut-tuts from the conventional wisdom crowd in the media. No Republican will EVER take a Democratic threat seriously from here on. And all the leverage on getting legislation passed in the Senate just ended.

Great friggin' job, Don. If you want to just go ahead and quit now and let any stray cat from Berkeley finish out your term, that'd be just fine with me.

...the thought has crossed my mind that Perata is just taking his name and aura off the recall because it'd be easier to pass without him, but if any organization associated with him donated a dime there'd be an even bigger hissy fit cry of "hypocrite," so his dropping the recall really signals a drop of any financial infusion, and I'm not seeing how Simon Salinas or the Dump Denham group will raise the necessary funds (especially considering that Denham is not restricted by any fundraising limits in a recall).

Denham Recall: The Slip Starts Showing

The intellectual inconsistencies are impossible to miss in this story on the Denham recall. It'd be a lot more effective to cry and whine about a power grab and unfair tactics, for example, if you DON'T tip off that you're planning on doing it yourself.

Jon Fleischman, vice chairman of the California Republican Party, said Perata was misusing the recall process, which is meant to boot people from office for serious misconduct. Fleischman and other activists in Orange County said that if the Denham recall succeeds, a similar campaign might be launched against Lou Correa, a Democratic state senator from Santa Ana.

Actually, the right answer is to reform the recall process, not to vow to "misuse" it again, if you want to remain on the intellectual and moral high ground.

But that's not surprising, of course, since the same people whining about the recall today are the ones who benefited from it in 2003.

Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who supported the budget Denham refused to vote for and even traveled at the time to Denham's district to pressure him, has disparaged the recall that's on the June 3 ballot.

"Obviously, it is political," Schwarzenegger said when asked about the effort at a recent Sacramento news conference, adding that the budget vote as "a reason for recall I think is ludicrous."

Riiiight, because Gray Davis wasn't recalled because of a budget deficit.

Like Fleischman, Denham says Perata was abusing the recall process, which is meant to remove from office people who act illegally. But backers of the recall effort note that Denham contributed $17,000 in 2003 to the Republican-led effort to recall Gov. Gray Davis, who was under criticism for the budget mess but had not been accused of criminal conduct.

It's just so hard to keep things straight, and figure out which are the RIGHT recalls and which are the WRONG ones. So good that we have honest brokers like Jon Fleischman and Jeff Denham to set us straight.

It's also a bad thing, we're told, that people in Sacramento and abroad are telling the good people of the 12th District what to do. Good thing there's none of that happening among Denham supporters:

Denham has raised $1.1 million to fight the recall. Major contributions include $50,000 from the Los Angeles Casinos Political Action Committee and $25,000 from the Pechanga Band of Mission Indians, which has a casino in Temecula.

Most of the members of the Los Angeles Casinos PAC, we all know, live in Stanislaus County.

With Republican Support, State Senate Passes Mortgage Relief Bill

Yesterday I noted that even Dan Walters was coming around on budget solutions that addressed the revenue problem. Today there's news that Republicans in the State Senate crossed party lines to pass a mortgage relief bill.

SB 1137 would give notice to property residents that the foreclosure process has begun, provide tenants additional time to move from a foreclosed property, and mandate maintenance of foreclosed properties to diminish the impact on the value of neighboring homes.

A previous version of this bill, SB 926, failed on the Senate floor in January when it fell one vote short of passage and faced opposition from the financial services industry. Since then, Senator Perata has addressed industry concerns and produced a more workable bill that has broad support and no known opposition.

One of those Senator who voted for the bill? Senator Scared as a Chicken in a Fox Cage Jeff Denham. He actually spoke on the Senate floor in favor of the bill. That's no accident: two of the worst-hit counties in terms of foreclosures are in his district (Stanislaus and Merced). Cox, Maldonado and Wyland joined the majority as well. The final vote was 28-10.

This is a compromise bill, to be sure (only loans from January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2007 are included), but would provide more transparency and the ability for homeowners to get help before foreclosure, as well as increased notification for renters whose property heads into foreclosure, which is an increasing problem.

What's notable here is the Republican support, which suggests that they're starting to feel pressure on issues like the mortgage crisis from their constituents. The old saw in California politics is that these Republicans are so gerrymandered into their seats that they can't be moved by public outcry. I'm not sure that's true anymore, and it's something to be recognized as we head into the budget fight.

As for Denham, I think he's got a bigger problem with his racist campaign manager, but clearly he's trying to radically backtrack his Senate history and come off as a nice moderate. Since this week is the deadline for bills to move from the Senate to the Assembly, we're going to see him tested on a lot of votes in the coming days.

SD-12: Simón Salinas Looks To Be In

Via Randy Bayne:

Simón Salinas has pulled papers to run in the Denham recall. He has until 5 p.m. tomorrow to turn in papers and signatures.

One Republican has also pulled papers, but there is a question about residency which may disqualify John Nevill, a Monterey County health care compliance officer.

I'm sure there will be a few stragglers on the ballot, but if Salinas is it that would significantly increase the chances of the recall, since Denham is not on that part of the ballot. It's an expansive district and no candidate has a power base throughout it, but between Salinas' stronghold in the Monterey County area, and the new report that Stanislaus County has turned blue, with a 5,000-vote registration shift between 2006 and today, there is obviously a lot of movement here, and if Denham continues to whine about the process than his record, his days are numbered.

SD-12: Kevin Spillane Is A Worthless Hack

I just want to start off this post right at the top, so he can see it, by saying that Denham flak Kevin Spillane is a worthless hack, and his little press release he wrote about me based on a recent blog post couldn't be more distorted and wrong. The state media is buying in to his stupid hissy fit, apparently unarmed with any institutional memory that goes back to 2003, that any California recall election against a Republican is an abuse of power. Grow some cajones, Kevin, and defend your candidate instead of inventing a boogeyman in the most hypocritical way possible. There will be a Democratic candidate, he'll come from the Central Valley, and he'll be a damn sight better than the unthinking automaton rubber stamp Jeff Denham turned out to be. If you can't defend your candidate you'll lose. Period.

And you'll have to defend him against these ads.

We sent Jeff Denham to Sacramento.
So how did he wind up with jet lag?
He spent thousands on travel - while the Senate was in session.
Airline tickets. Trips to Vegas. And a Sedona spa.
When he does show up, he's sleepwalking.
Denham held up the budget, hurting our schools
Denham said he wasn't taking raises - then secretly raised his pay by 20 percent.
The Fresno Bee called it "not quite honest."
Don't you deserve better?
Vote yes on the recall

Darn right. This isn't about process, it isn't about power grabs. It's hardball politics, and if you're going to run a campaign based on whining and griping you're going to lose. Jeff Denham is toast if this is your strategy.

Frank Russo has more.

SD-12: Hissy Fits And Asymmetrical Warfare

Over the weekend the CDP resolutions committee endorsed the recall of Jeff Denham in SD-12. The Republicans have thrown a massive hissy fit over this, similar to the hissy fit Yacht Party regulars like Sam Blakeslee have thrown, denouncing those who dare to identify his record in public. All of a sudden we're seeing op-eds throughout the region and across the state decrying what is routinely identified as a "Don Perata-engineered power grab." The latest comes from the fount of conventional wisdom in the California political media, George Skelton:

This is the time of year when the northern San Joaquin Valley is actually bucolic. Temperatures are bearable. The hills are green and the orchards are in full bloom -- almonds gussied in white, peaches in pink.

Too bad that this spring there's also a foul odor of Sacramento political pollution.

In a nutshell, the local state senator -- Republican Jeff Denham of Merced -- didn't vote for the state budget last summer. That contributed to a 52-day stalemate and angered the Senate leader, Democrat Don Perata of Oakland. So Perata now is trying to recall Denham.

Not just a payback, but the political death penalty.

Funny, I don't remember such high dudgeon back in 2003, when the recall of Gray Davis was viewed as a victory for democracy and an opportunity for the people to have their say.

Here's what's actually going on. Professional hack Kevin Spillane is good at getting his propaganda into the papers. And the media obliges without any historical perspective whatsoever. If Republicans want to put forth a measure ending recall petitions and allowing any state officer to finish out their term, go ahead; I'd probably support it. But they don't. They want to use the recall when it suits them and whine about "fairness" and "power grabs" when it doesn't. There could not have possibly been a bigger power grab than the Darrell Issa and Ted Costa-funded recall of Gray Davis. Anyone in the so-called liberal media dumb enough not to understand this notion of asymmetrical warfare isn't worth reading.

I fear that the Spillane hack-o-thon is bearing fruit in scaring off Democrats from pressing forward on this recall; there certainly wasn't a lot of talk about it or enthusiasm at the convention, nor was there any potential challenger in sight pressing the flesh. The Denham recall, in fact, is what the process was invented for: when legislators protect their own or their party's interest at the expense of the people they should be held accountable. Jeff Denham is part of an effort to stop California lawmakers from doing their jobs and eliminate, for practical purposes, the role of government in the state. The Iron Law of Institutions dictate that "people within institutions act to increase their own power rather than the power of the institution itself." The only way to deal with that from the outside is use the legal tools available to exact leverage on the institution. If it was OK for a Republican to use, so too for a Democrat.

So these media types and their hacktastic Republican spinmeisters can shut their whiny little mouths and defend their role in the shutdown of democracy in California to the voters. Jeff Denham ought to be able to defend himself instead of crying about the "process."

SD-12: Local Reaction on Denham Recall

I've been perusing some of the reaction in the local papers on the qualification of the Jeff Denham recall on the ballot, and there's some interesting stuff in there. From Hank Shaw in the Stockton Record, we learn that Denham has been harvesting money for months, and given the lack of campaign finance limits in a recall election, expect more Chamber of Commerce members to fork over big novelty checks.

Denham has been raising money hand over fist to defend himself. He collected a $50,000 check from Oakdale Sierra Tel, a telecommunications company, late last week and has amassed more than $300,000 so far. As the target of a recall, Denham can raise cash in unlimited amounts.

Telecom company, ay? Not that Denham has anything to do with the FISA fight, but telecoms aren't exactly popular figures in districts with a 45-36 registration advantage for Democrats.

As for who the opponent will be, it looks like there are two potential candidates, former Assemblymember Simon Salinas and Merced County District Attorney Larry Morse. Morse claims that Perata contacted him last month about running.

After the meeting, Morse said he spoke with Denham about the offer as a courtesy because there are never any secrets in Sacramento; he didn't want the senator learning about it from someone else.

Morse ran for Assembly in 1996 and lost to Dennis Cardoza, and also considered a run for Senate in 2002, which would have pitted him against Denham.

Since becoming district attorney, Morse said he's made progress in office and hasn't considered any other elected slot.

"I'm not sure what set of circumstances could induce me to leave," he said. "When the president of the Senate asks to talk with you, you probably owe him the courtesy of talking to him."

Morse is apparently big on courtesy. If he did run, would he let Denham in on his ad information and oppo research because he "doesn't want him to learn about it from someone else"?

Um, go Salinas.

Meanwhile, Denham's campaign consultant is really on the ball.

"The bad news for Perata, who started this recall, is this vote will take place right in the middle of the debate over the 2008-09 budget," Denham campaign consultant Tim Clark said.

Yes, exactly! And voters don't want their schools dismantled and their teachers fired. It was also amusing to hear hired gun Kevin Spillane say in the Fresno Bee that the recall has Sacramento ties. Right, because you're the salt of the earth from Stanislaus County, right?

I am liking the aggressive reaction from the Dump Denham folks.

Perata spokeswoman Alicia Trost referred calls to Paul Hefner, spokesman for the "Dump Denham" recall campaign.

"The voters have caught on to Jeff Denham. They're recalling him for the same reasons people take unsafe toys off the shelf and tainted meat out of supermarkets—because they're no good, and because we deserve better," Hefner said in a statement.

This should be a fun 76 days.

SD-12: Denham Recall Reaches The Ballot: Vote Must Happen Within 60-80 Days

This is a pretty big deal. I really hadn't been paying much attention to this recall possibility, but it's come to fruition. There have only been 4 other recall elections of sitting state legislators in the past 90 years. Jeff Denham becomes the fifth.

The recall attempt of Sen. Jeff Denham, R-Atwater, has gathered enough signatures to qualify for the ballot, California Secretary of State Debra Bowen announced Tuesday.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger must set the recall election for a date 60 to 80 days from today, Bowen's office reports.

Once the Governor sets the date, (it seems almost certain that he'll pick June 3, which is 77 days away and also the day of the statewide primary) candidates can emerge. And given Sen. Perata's interest in this race, I think we'll see some strong Democrats contest this seat, unlike the somewhat shameful behavior in SD-15, where apparently Abel Maldonado's vote for last year's budget got him a reprieve from any challenge (right now there's no Democrat on the ballot to face Maldonado, though a write-in campaign still has time to emerge). However, this does put the Senate in play to flip to a 2/3 majority, given this race and the race in SD-19 with Hannah-Beth Jackson versus Tony Strickland.

Like the gubernatorial recall in 2003, there will be two questions on the ballot. The first will ask if Denham should be recalled, and the second will ask who among a list of challengers should replace him.

It seems to me that this is an excellent opportunity to message-test the major themes around the budget, revenues, and spending in advance of the nasty legislative fight and the November general election. While I don't expect this recall to be as exciting as Gray Davis', or to feature Gary Coleman, to the extent that it's a referendum on failed conservative ideology I think it could be extremely revelatory.

Robert is our resident expert in this neck of the state, I expect him to chime in.

UPDATE: Apparently, the old No on 93 team is getting back together to support Denham. So expect them to make this about Perata and a power grab. Whatever they choose, this will be extremely costly to the CRP at a time when they don't have the money. And they have to be extremely nervous about this stat:

The recall campaign, funded by the Democratic Party and a campaign committee linked to Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata, D-Oakland, turned in more than 61,000 signatures last month, nearly double the 31,084 need to qualify.

I would guess that 61,000 voters would be more than enough to dump Denham in June.