Faces Of The Budget

The latest economic numbers for the state are over at the Department of Finance, and they are as expected.

From July 2007 to July 2008, the state lost 75,900 nonfarm jobs, a 0.5-percent drop, with the state’s beleaguered housing industry continuing to be the focus of most of the losses. Employment rose 47,000 in educational and health services; 39,300 in government; 9,200 in leisure and hospitality; 6,200 in professional and business services; and 900 in natural resources and mining. Of the year's growth in government, more than three-fourths—29,800—was in local government. Over the year, employment fell by 83,100 in construction; 35,400 in financial activities; 30,900 in manufacturing; 20,500 in trade, transportation, and utilities; 7,800 in information; and 800 in other services.

The state’s unemployment rate rose to 7.3 percent in July—a 12-year high. July's unemployment rate was up 0.3 percentage point from a revised June unemployment rate of 7.0 percent and 1.9 percentage points from July 2007's unemployment rate of 5.4 percent. This large year-over-year increase will most likely be revised down next February. The national unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.7 percent in July, leaving the gap between the state and national rates at 1.6 percentage points.

And of course, the national numbers in August were even worse, so this has nowhere to go but down right now.

More important, the General Fund numbers for August were $124 million dollars below forecast, with personal income tax revenues down $67 million and sales tax receipts down $222 million. In essence this means that the deficit is even worse than advertised, and the projections to bring it into balance are likely to be bogus if and when a budget is signed, provided that the economy doesn't rebound quickly.

I listened to this NPR report yesterday, which put the budget delay into an entirely new context. In Sacramento it's a fight between competing ideologies; but in rural health clinics, at community colleges, all over the state, it's the difference between staying in school and dropping out. The difference between getting medical care and finding it out of reach. The difference between keeping your clinic running and having to shutter it. These are deeply harrowing personal stories, and there are millions of them, and they're only getting worse. For some reason, while a few of these stories have been told in Capitol committee hearings, I haven't seen Democrats amplify one of their voices - not one - through a television ad describing the stakes of the budget delay, Yacht Party intransigence and the need to abolish 2/3 or throw enough Yacht Party members out so that 2/3 is achieved. What exactly are they waiting for? At least you could message test this on local cable and the Web.

You can't just expect people to figure these things out for themselves.