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As featured on p. 218 of "Bloggers on the Bus," under the name "a MyDD blogger."

Friday, December 26, 2008

Most Dangerous Trouble Spot In The World Update

I know there are new Oscar contenders in the theaters, and Obama showed his pecs and all, but two nuclear powers are moving toward war and you'd think people would begin to pay attention to that, what with the potential for radioactivity to spread across the Earth and all.

Pakistan began moving thousands of troops away from the Afghan border toward India on Friday amid tensions following the Mumbai attacks, intelligence officials said.

The move represents a sharp escalation in the standoff between the nuclear-armed neighbors and will hurt Pakistan's U.S.-backed campaign against al-Qaida and Taliban taking place near Afghanistan's border.

Two intelligence officials said the army's 14th Division was being redeployed to Kasur and Sialkot, close to the Indian border. They said some 20,000 troops were on the move. Earlier Friday, a security official said that all troop leave had been canceled.


These are not two countries known for their restraint - they have fought three wars since Pakistani independence in 1947. In the post-nuclear era, they almost started a fourth war in 2001, after militants attacked the Indian Parliament. Earlier in the week, Pakistan scrambled fighter jets over its own cities to protect them from an Indian attack, after the Indian foreign minister ratcheted up the rhetoric.

"We have so far acted with utmost restraint," Pranab Mukherjee told the more than 120 envoys from posts around the world. But he added, "We will take all measures necessary as we deem fit to deal with the situation."

A senior government official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, later called Mukherjee's tough talk "an expression of political will that India will not take this lying down." He added that the option of "precision airstrikes" on terrorist training camps in Pakistan would remain on the table if Islamabad did not act effectively against groups fomenting terrorism against India.


There was a point in this renewed conflict after the Mumbai attacks, when Pakistan was rolling up elements of the Lashkar-i-Taiba extremist group and cooperation between the two South Asian countries appeared possible. Things have deteriorated since then, as India is accusing Pakistan of playing games with their homegrown militants:

In a background briefing, another senior government official said India is tired of the conflicting signals from Pakistan.

"We hear different voices from different places in Pakistan. Every day, different stories are floated. First we heard that Masood Azhar is arrested, then they say they do not know where he is," he said, referring to one of the fugitives India has demanded that Pakistan hand over. "If Lashkar-i-Taiba and Jamaat-ud-Dawa have been proscribed, then why is their Web site active and operational?" the official added.


Pakistan has at the very least tolerated, and at the most actively supported through their military and intelligence services, the existence of extremists for a while. Not only has that partially been funded with the copious amounts of US aid that goes toward the Pakistani military, but this recent activity at the Indian border is being financed by our tax dollars as well. So instead of using American treasure to fight terrorism, it's being used to underwrite it, as well as raise tensions between nuclear powers.

The Indian Prime Minister has called for calm but there is no reason to expect that either side will comply. Just add this onto the pile of major foreign policy crises that the incoming Obama Administration will face. And of course, it's intimately connected to Afghanistan, since each Pakistani soldier moving to the Indian border is one less stopping insurgents and Taliban from crossing over and carrying out attacks.

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