Most Dangerous Trouble Spot In The World Update

I know there are new Oscar contenders in the theaters, and Obama showed his pecs and all, but two nuclear powers are moving toward war and you'd think people would begin to pay attention to that, what with the potential for radioactivity to spread across the Earth and all.

Pakistan began moving thousands of troops away from the Afghan border toward India on Friday amid tensions following the Mumbai attacks, intelligence officials said.

The move represents a sharp escalation in the standoff between the nuclear-armed neighbors and will hurt Pakistan's U.S.-backed campaign against al-Qaida and Taliban taking place near Afghanistan's border.

Two intelligence officials said the army's 14th Division was being redeployed to Kasur and Sialkot, close to the Indian border. They said some 20,000 troops were on the move. Earlier Friday, a security official said that all troop leave had been canceled.

These are not two countries known for their restraint - they have fought three wars since Pakistani independence in 1947. In the post-nuclear era, they almost started a fourth war in 2001, after militants attacked the Indian Parliament. Earlier in the week, Pakistan scrambled fighter jets over its own cities to protect them from an Indian attack, after the Indian foreign minister ratcheted up the rhetoric.

"We have so far acted with utmost restraint," Pranab Mukherjee told the more than 120 envoys from posts around the world. But he added, "We will take all measures necessary as we deem fit to deal with the situation."

A senior government official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, later called Mukherjee's tough talk "an expression of political will that India will not take this lying down." He added that the option of "precision airstrikes" on terrorist training camps in Pakistan would remain on the table if Islamabad did not act effectively against groups fomenting terrorism against India.

There was a point in this renewed conflict after the Mumbai attacks, when Pakistan was rolling up elements of the Lashkar-i-Taiba extremist group and cooperation between the two South Asian countries appeared possible. Things have deteriorated since then, as India is accusing Pakistan of playing games with their homegrown militants:

In a background briefing, another senior government official said India is tired of the conflicting signals from Pakistan.

"We hear different voices from different places in Pakistan. Every day, different stories are floated. First we heard that Masood Azhar is arrested, then they say they do not know where he is," he said, referring to one of the fugitives India has demanded that Pakistan hand over. "If Lashkar-i-Taiba and Jamaat-ud-Dawa have been proscribed, then why is their Web site active and operational?" the official added.

Pakistan has at the very least tolerated, and at the most actively supported through their military and intelligence services, the existence of extremists for a while. Not only has that partially been funded with the copious amounts of US aid that goes toward the Pakistani military, but this recent activity at the Indian border is being financed by our tax dollars as well. So instead of using American treasure to fight terrorism, it's being used to underwrite it, as well as raise tensions between nuclear powers.

The Indian Prime Minister has called for calm but there is no reason to expect that either side will comply. Just add this onto the pile of major foreign policy crises that the incoming Obama Administration will face. And of course, it's intimately connected to Afghanistan, since each Pakistani soldier moving to the Indian border is one less stopping insurgents and Taliban from crossing over and carrying out attacks.

Pakistan/India Update

After a week in which a prank phone call almost led to nuclear war in East Asia, it looks as if, tentatively, Pakistan is starting to act against the militants in their midst. On Sunday they raided a Lakshar-e-Tayiba camp, the first concrete action in years to crack down on the terrorist group that appears to have been responsible for the Mumbai siege. And now, they've made an arrest against a possible mastermind of the attack. Questions abound about the arrest, but this is much better than political leaders lobbing insults across the border.

According to local reports, 12 members of the banned group including Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, accused by Delhi as being one of the planners of the carnage in India's financial centre, were arrested in Sunday night's raid in the hills above Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. A helicopter gunship hovered overhead and gunfire was heard.

Some Indian officials privately described it as "an important first step", though there was some scepticism in India about the nature of the raid. The "camp" that was stormed included a hospital, a madrasa (Islamic school) and offices. However, it was unclear whether it was a training facility for militants or just an administrative and charitable site [...]

Lakhvi was supposed to be LeT's operations chief and, according to some reports, recruited Ajmal Ameer Kasab, the lone gunman caught alive during the Mumbai assault. There was no word on what happened to Lakhvi after the arrest or on the whereabouts of Yusuf Muzammil, who has been named by Delhi as the other main planner of the Mumbai attack.

It has been reported that the Indian authorities have asked for the two men to be handed over. Some locals in Muzaffarabad suggested the raid may have been staged in some aspects, with rumours that the militants were tipped off beforehand.

Meanwhile, the former head of the ISI, the Pakistani intelligence service, is being implicated in the attacks enough to publicly deny his involvement. We're not going to round up every bad actor in Pakistan in a week or even a year, but if the central government is motivated to at least start the process, that's very hopeful. I think we're at least off of the super red alert at this point.

Mumbai Update

India and Pakistan are in the war of words stage, and while I hope that's all that will come of this, just rhetoric between two nuclear powers can be dangerous. It's positive that the Indian Foreign Minister is not looking into troop movements at this time, but I imagine a lot will hinge on whether or not Pakistan gives up those 20 terrorist suspects India has demanded. So far, the Prime Minister in Islamabad has only said that Pakistan would try the suspects themselves, and I suspect that won't be good enough.

Condi Rice is in the region, but the lame duck administration is not going to be able to manage this. I think it's positive that Obama is considering sending Richard Holbrooke as an envoy to the region to smooth tensions. He should do so as soon as possible. Holbrooke has the right experience for this role.