Intrigue

Very interesting stuff going on.

This afternoon we got the Leak of the Week from Capitol Weekly - a look at Dennis Hollingsworth's letter to his entire caucus. It's in budget-ese, but Zed is positively giddy about all the cuts to social services, all the denial of fee increases, and he's basically telling his caucus they got everything they wanted. It was good to see the inside thinking, especially if Yacht Party members turned around and voted against the budget. They know that their preferred option is deeply unpopular, and would rather distance themselves from this solution and make the Democrats own the budget. So this was a key document counteracting that.

Then at around 2:30, Michael Rothfeld changed his original process story about legislators building support for the deal into this bombshell:

The state budget deal negotiated by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders would reduce the population of California prisons by nearly 27,000 inmates in the current fiscal year.

That would be done with a combination of new measures, including allowing some inmates to finish their sentences on home detention, creating new incentives for completion of rehabilitation programs and scaling back parole supervision for the least serious offenders.

The proposal, details of which were obtained by The Times, would save a total of $1.2 billion in the coming year.

It is unclear whether Republicans will vote for a budget plan that includes reduction of the state prison system, which now houses 170,000 inmates. Some GOP votes are needed to pass a budget in California.

If Republicans demur, the Democrats who dominate the Legislature could approve the prison proposal as separate legislation with a simple majority vote, which would not require GOP support [...]

The budget plan also would create a sentencing commission to reexamine the state penal code, which would not save money immediately but would advance plans under discussion by lawmakers for years. The commission would be charged with establishing new sentencing guidelines by July 1, 2012.

Prisons are slated for $1.2 billion in cuts in the budget, and most stories last night claimed that included no early release. Clearly Republicans - and possibly the Governor - saw those cuts as best employed by turning the prisons into Public Storage units, cutting all drug treatment and vocational training programs and reducing corrections officer overtime. So this looked to be a bait-and-switch by the Democratic legislature.

Except nobody seems to know how the LA Times got this story. And less than an hour later, Sam Blakeslee alerts the media:

Throughout budget negotiations we insisted that Republican votes would never be provided for a budget deal that included early release of prisoners.

Our caucus and staff developed a cut strategy for corrections that provided the necessary savings to close the deficit without risking public safety.

We had a clear understanding with the democrats that NO corrections bill would be a part of the budget and that we would have an honest chance to contest the policy issues in the light of day in August.

Just two hours ago I learned from staff that Senate democrats are concocting a radioactive corrections bill that includeds the worst of the worst _ sentencing commission and release of 27,000 prisoners, etc

When I spoke with Dennis he was as surprised and upset as I was regarding what appears to be a serious breach of the agreement in the Big 5.

I have called and personally told both Karen and Darrell that their will be no republican votes for any portion of the budget if they allow such a bill to be part of the package.

This seems just a little too neat to me. This report was leaked to the Times anonymously, after a separate email from the Senate GOP gets leaked showing what a great snow job they think they got over the Democrats. And then Blakeslee has an email out to his caucus - within less than an hour of the story leak - that comes up with a credible reason to shut down the deal, blaming those double-crossing Democrats.

FWIW I'd love a sentencing commission/early release of nonviolent offenders bill to become a reality, but I hardly believe that Senate Democrats, who as a caucus have participated in 30 years' worth of sentencing increases, and who scuttled a sentencing commission bill from Gloria Romero just last year, would sneak this into a budget bill out of nowhere, with complete language less than a day after a deal was reached. It would be completely out of line with prior history. It doesn't scan at all.

But it's sure a bonne chance for Republicans to have this fall in their lap...

...OK, so the Governor's Corrections Secy is briefing reporters. And will you look at that, the Times' story was wrong, as was Asm. Blakeslee! The report of 27,000 released is misleading, says the Secretary, but the Administration is interested in some reforms, including a sentencing commission. Wow, that's great, at least in theory. They are offering early release credits that would maybe release 1,700 total. This looks more and more like a coordinated hissy fit laundered through a compliant media.

CA Mess: Senate Rejects Assembly Call For A Timeout

I guess this is good news under the standard of cracks in the armor, but it amounted basically to nothing. The Assembly, on a bipartisan basis, passed a stopgap measure designed specifically to keep the IOUs from going out next week. The measure would cut some education programs and defer other payments, for a total of about $5 billion. The Governor, who's beyond reason or responsibility at this point, threatened to veto becuase it did not constitute a "full solution." And then the Senate, led by "Zed" Hollingsworth, just said no and the legislature adjounred. FWIW, here were some of the plans:

Among the costs lawmakers would defer are $2.2 billion owed to schools, $700 million for the University of California system, $290 million owed the California State University system and $163 million for community colleges. Nearly $290 million in payments to transportation programs would also be delayed.

The Assembly package also would take $350 million from local redevelopment agencies to help balance the budget. An earlier attempt to take those funds was blocked in court, but lawmakers have rewritten the proposal in an attempt to avert legal problems.

The lawmakers also would also borrow $360 million in lottery funds, which legislative staffers say would be legal even though voters in May rejected a proposal to borrow substantially more from the lottery.

It's remarkable how almost everything on the May ballot has been dredged up again, despite the mandate against doing so.

Once again, I see no endgame.

Republicans Refusing To... Cut?

In the upside-down world of the California budget mess, the Senate President Pro Tem is now criticizing Republicans for their refusal to vote for cuts.

Senate Leader Darrell Steinberg wants to put Republicans on record today on two political questions: whether they can accept $11.4 billion in cuts that Democrats are proposing, and whether they will vote on $2 billion in new taxes.

On taxes, Steinberg conceded he is unlikely to win a single Republican vote when the Senate takes up the Democrats' $23.3 billion deficit reduction plan. But that, he said, shouldn't stop them from supporting his package of cuts, which will be voted on separately.

"If they're going to stand on the argument that cuts are not deep enough and thereby not vote for $11 billion in cuts, then we have some issues," Steinberg said at a news briefing next to his Capitol office. "It's interesting. I'm getting a sense that Republicans are getting shy about voting for cuts. That would be an odd headline: Democrats urging Republicans to vote for cuts."

Actually, it's not an odd headline. It's the inevitable consequence of a broken political system where you need a simple majority to make cuts and a 2/3 majority to raise taxes. Period.

In this case, Steinberg can pass the whole budget, save $2 billion in oil and cigarette taxes, by majority vote, because this is not a budget enactment, but a revision. If he doesn't muster 2/3 for the cuts, however, the revision will be delayed 90 days, reducing the effectiveness of the cuts by roughly 1/4, and forcing additional solutions to fill the deficit later. Even when mostly cuts are on the table, Republicans are using the leverage of undemocratic supermajorities to force more cuts.

Here's Zed Hollingsworth playing dumb that all he wants is a comprehensive solution.

"We're willing to vote for the cuts that provide for a complete solution," said Republican leader Dennis Hollingsworth, R-Temecula. "We're not willing to vote for a partial solution that has us coming back in the spring having to find more revenues when another calamity hits. We're not interested in political gamesmanship."

No, the Yacht Party would NEVER be interested in political gamesmanship, perish the thought. They'd never want to try to send the state into bankruptcy to make a political point or anything. By the way, Zed, news flash: you'll be back in the spring. The projections from the Legislative Analyst have consistently fallen short of reality, and no matter how big a budget reserve gets baked into this new budget, you can bet dollars to donuts it won't be enough, especially considering the potentially accelerated Depression that additional cuts to the social services net will force. The Anderson Forecast estimates 64,000 government jobs lost from this round of budget cuts. Even in Dan Walters' world, that's a significant chunk.

My problem with the Democrats on this is mainly their insistence on working within a broken system. They miss every opportunity to put the failed governmental structure on trial. Something as absurd as Republicans voting against program cuts - to ensure MORE program cuts - defies belief without an explanation of how it's a symbol for a bad process that must be fixed. The goal of this budget, which was never going to be pretty regardless of the May 19 election, should have been to heighten that reality.

Archaeologists Dig Up Woolly Mammoth Fossil In Los Angeles, Republicans Make It Minority Leader

Apparently that elephant is anti-tax too, and he remembers the good old days!

Among their finds, to be formally announced today, is the nearly intact skeleton of a Columbian mammoth -- named Zed by researchers -- a prize discovery because only bits and pieces of mammoths had previously been found in the tar pits.

OK, Dennis Hollingsworth's new name is Zed.

I was just on KPFA's Morning Show with former Assemblyman John Laird, and we'll have audio of that in a bit. But as we see the Yacht Party spiral ever more into neanderthalism, I want to make a couple points. First, Zed Hollingsworth is crazy but that's a matter of degree. Dave Cogdill wasn't exactly reasonable prior to becoming Minority Leader - I don't think he had ever voted for a budget before. In the world of the Yacht Party, actually doing something to move the state forward is the highest treason.

Second, it's truly amazing to witness the utter irrelevance of Arnold Schwarzenegger. Asm. Laird had the money quote today - "I never thought I'd be wishing for Pete Wilson again, but I am." Pete Wilson was a lawmaker. He actually cultivated relationships with Republicans, and through carrots and sticks actually persuaded them. The Yacht Party has grown more entrenched over the years, but Arnold governs by magazine cover and doesn't even really know who any of them are. He's not even in the Capitol today - he went home to Brentwood last night. The failure of the chief executive to have any power within his own party is a major driver in this crisis. We don't need an action hero, just someone who knows the least bit about government.

Short-term, we're still in the same place. Darrell Steinberg is "making them filibuster," keeping the Senate in the building overnight. The perpetual answer is that something will break in the next 24 hours. It's a dispiriting choice between a bad deal and insolvency, but the latter is unthinkable. Your list of calls is short.

Senator Abel Maldanado (R-Monterey County, 916-651-4015)
Senator Dave Cox (R-Fair Oaks, 916-651-4001)

Yacht Party Throws Cogdill Into The Ocean

There's some overnight craziness going on in Sacramento. The Yacht Party staged a putsch, deposing their leader in the middle of the night.

Around 11 p.m., a group of GOP senators, unhappy with the higher taxes that Senate leader Dave Cogdill of Modesto agreed to as part of a deal with the governor and Democrats, voted to replace him in a private caucus meeting in Cogdill's office. Shortly before midnight, it was still unclear who would replace him.

Cogdill's ouster could be a major setback to budget negotiations. Cogdill was a lead negotiator on the budget package and had committed to voting for it. If he were removed from his leadership post, a new Senate minority leader would likely try to renegotiate the deal, which lawmakers spent three months forging [...]

Sen. Mark Leno (D-San Francisco), noting that Cogdill helped negotiate the budget and pledged to vote for it, said the Republican's caucus mates should join him -- or replace him.

"You ought to follow your leader or choose a new one," Leno said.

They took Leno's advice.

We've been following this at Calitics all night. Apparently Cogdill, Maldonado, Cox and Asburn abstained from the leadership vote, which was unclear for a while until the rump Yacht Party chose as their leader Dennis Hollingsworth, who's 12 shades of crazy but with the Yacht Party it's all a matter of degree. Everybody knew Cogdill was a goner (including Cogdill, he offered his resignation over the weekend), but what's crucial here is if the negotiations are already over. The big question is this - would Dems have to re-negotiate with a new Senate Minority Leader on this, or are there three votes locked up?

John Myers asked Hollingsworth if he would ask for the budget to be re-opened, and he simply said "a majority of Republicans oppose tax increases." That's a no, to me.

Steinberg's on the floor right now congratulating Hollingsworth and saying "We're tired of waiting." Hollingsworth, in his speech, says "I honestly don't know how the vote is going to turn out." And now voting has begun on the $14.4 billion dollar tax package.

...which failed. All the necessary GOP votes abstained.