FL-Sen: The Crist-Rubio Race Is A Race

Charlie Crist will have more money to spend in his primary race against right-winger Marco Rubio, but Rubio will have the funds necessary to compete. If he didn't raise $1 million dollars last quarter, I'd say he was done. But having the minimal amount necessary to get his message out, combined with all the grassroots energy (Howie Klein has been following this obsessively) tells me that he has a chance. Not a good chance - name ID will maybe be enough to swamp him - but a chance, especially given that all Govenors are endangered species right now, given the state of the economy. I don't think Charlie Crist is a slam dunk for the nomination.

Not Really "Le Mieux"

We have a new United States Senator to replace Florida's Mel Martinez. He's the former chief of staff of the Governor who appointed him, who is also seeking the job in 2010.

Gov. Charlie Crist chose trust and loyalty Friday over Washington experience or potential political gain in choosing former chief of staff George LeMieux to replace Republican U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez.

State Rep. Jennifer Carroll, who was considered for the position, said Crist told her he is choosing LeMieux. LeMieux is Crist's closest political adviser and the governor's pick shows he wants someone who thinks like him to hold the Senate seat Crist hopes to win in the November 2010 election.

As LeMieux said after interviewing for the position: "I'm a Charlie Crist Republican."

Technically, this is a caretaker position, albeit one that lasts a year and a half. And I think it shows the pitfalls associated with gubernatorial appointments, especially in this case, where the Governor in question is running for the seat. Crist is basically putting in a sock-puppet, who can be expected to follow his wishes to a T. During Crist's primary with conservative Marco Rubio, we can expect LeMieux to protect Crist's right flank by voting straight down the conservative line. As soon as Crist wins the primary, LeMieux will get religion and start voting in a moderate fashion, to prove Crist's moderate bona fides. I'd almost guarantee it.

With the Kennedy situation still fluid, I think that a potential Massachusetts law would be the best of all possible worlds - a quick appointment because of the outsized importance of Senate representation, along with a quick-strike special election within 4-5 months. Certainly better that a Governor putting in his sock-puppet while running for the seat himself.

By the way, LeMieux is also a former and possibly current registered lobbyist, but he's also a Republican, so that's somewhat redundant.

Kendrick Meek, the Democrat running for Senate, came out swinging:

From the moment Senator Martinez announced his retirement, Governor Crist placed his ambitions over Florida's needs. Floridians require a Senator working to ease their economic pain and achieve comprehensive health insurance reform, not a political appointee who serves the monied special interests.

The Governor added another edition to his campaign team at taxpayers' expense. George LeMieux doesn't represent Floridians facing economic challenges - he represents privileged clients with expense accounts far removed from the realities Floridians are facing.

Governor Crist was afforded a high responsibility with this appointment. Instead, he treated this process like a mockery, politicizing his selection by flying around the state at taxpayers' expense, touring major media markets and drawing this selection out. Well respected Floridians with a wealth of elected service experience from Congressman Clay Shaw to Mayor John Delaney to various Hispanic leaders were in a position to hit the ground running if appointed, but that possibility is now nonexistent.

By appointing George LeMieux, Governor Crist's inner circle was rewarded with a U.S. Senate seat and Floridians are left lacking the representation they deserve.

I like the "Charlie Crist choose a Senator tour" that apparently accompanied this selection. And in the end, he put his campaign manager and chief of staff in the seat. That probably could have happened without the fanfare.

FL-Sen: A Toehold For Dead-Enders?

I don't want to concern-troll the GOP, but the primary race in Florida between popular Governor Charlie Crist and right-wing former House Speaker Marco Rubio could be a defining moment for their party. Rubio starts out way behind the more well-known Crist, who has high approval ratings in the Sunshine State. But Crist's support for the stimulus package has led to a revolt among the hard right, with some GOP leaders, like Jim DeMint and Mike Huckabee, breaking for Rubio, straw polls among Republican activists trending his way, and the Club For Growth threatening to play in the primary:

"We recently interviewed Marco Rubio and were impressed," said Club president David Keating. "We are very concerned about the two major tax increases Charlie Crist recently signed and believe there's no excuse for his active support of the Obama big-government 'stimulus' spending bill. We are actively considering the race."

The Club had previously been planning on a different major project for the 2010 Senate primary season: former Rep. Pat Toomey's challenge to then-GOP Sen. Arlen Specter in the Republican primary. But now that Specter has become a Democrat in order to avoid that very same primary, Florida might now be the new Pennsylvania.

The latest poll from the race has Crist well in front, but among those who know both Crist and Rubio (who has a comparatively low name ID), it's a virtual tie. The Club for Growth could easily pull this one off. And while Rubio could win statewide, Florida Democrats have a far better chance beating him than Charlie Crist, who has bipartisan appeal. There's a reason the NRSC already endorsed Crist; they know they'd have to spend millions to keep the seat if he gets bumped in the primary.

FL-Sen: Crist Goes To Crazy Base Land

Charlie Crist grabbed the endorsement of the NRSC, and this incensed the insaneosphere on the right, with RedState calling for a boycott of the Senate Republican campaign arm. If the NRSC had any clout over the poltical establishment in Florida, it might be a serious endorsement. But clearly, Crist doesn't think their money and influence will be enough to help him win the primary, because he just went out and signed the Grover Norquist pledge.

In the latest development in the 2010 Florida Senate race, where moderate Republican Gov. Charlie Crist is facing a more conservative opponent in the GOP primary, former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, both candidates have signed the anti-tax pledge of Grover Norquist's Americans for Tax Reform.

In a possible move by Crist to appeal to right-wing voters and activists -- a demographic that might oppose him because of his support for the stimulus bill -- his campaign announced yesterday that he was the first candidate to sign the pledge. Rubio then signed up hours later.

He only needs to do this because Rubio would otherwise attack him hard from the right. But clearly, Crist's willingness to go as far right as possible to win the primary will only hurt him, in the same way that it hurt John McCain, in a general election in Florida. State lawmaker Dan Gelber is the progressive alternative here, and he has a primary of his own against Rep. Kendrick Meek. I'm sure both of them love watching Crist turn into a fundie neocon economic royalist right before their eyes.

Meanwhile, as Howie Klein notes, the NRSC didn't bother to offer the same support for Missouri's Roy Blunt, a member of the House leadership, declining to choose him over his primary opponents. Maybe that's because Robin Carnahan looks ready to beat all comers, and Blunt has enough corruption problems of his own to spook the national GOP.

FL-Sen: Better To Support The Stimulus From Outside The Senate

In one of the few bright spots for Republican recruiting thus far, Florida Governor Charlie Crist will announce a run for Senate today. Crist enjoys a high approval rating in the state because of many moderate stances, including a high-profile support of the federal stimulus package. That's EXACTLY the same vote that drummed Arlen Specter out of the GOP. The question is whether the Florida primary electorate will make Crist pay for that. Marco Rubio, the former Speaker of the Florida House, will also run in the primary from the right. And Florida has a closed Republican primary.

Senate Guru reports:

Nationally, the conservative Weekly Standard is promoting Crist's primary challenger, former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, as the Republican Obama; also, the conservative Club for Growth has already started a cheering section for Rubio against Crist:

But Rubio could also pick up some powerful supporters in the primary. Following his announcement Tuesday, the anti-tax Club for Growth, which is known for its ability to drive fundraising for candidates it supports, released a statement praising Rubio's entry into the race.

Rubio's "fiscally responsible, pro-growth approach in the State Capitol stands in stark contrast with other elements of the state government, led by Charlie Crist," club President Chris Chocola said.

Meanwhile, within the state borders of Florida, conservatives are downright displeased with what they see as Crist being not conservative enough:

Florida Republican Party circles are hearing increasing talk of conservative dissatisfaction with Gov. Charlie Crist and a possible primary challenge if he runs for the U.S. Senate next year. ...

Some conservatives, never happy with Crist's emphasis on racial diversity, environmental regulation and populist willingness to take on big business, are now saying it openly.

Rubio is already fomenting this sentiment with direct shots at Crist:

"If you agree with Susan Collins or Olympia Snowe on some of these issues, you might as well become a Democrat,'' said former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, a Republican who is likely to run for the Senate, whether or not Crist does.

Rubio, the son of anti-Castro Cubans, offers maybe the only conservative profile that could beat Crist in the state. We're seeing one of those "battles for the soul of the party" play out. And then there's the persistent closet talk about Crist, who suddenly married last year when it was rumored that he could get the VP slot next to John McCain.

Simply put, if Charlie Crist can't get elected by Florida Republicans, then their party truly has crawled into a spider hole of denial. Rep. Kendrick Meek and progressive state lawmaker Dan Gelber have jumped in this race on the Democratic side.

The NRSC is taking sides in this race by endorsing Crist immediately. A cold-blooded move based in political reality. What will Rush say?

The Shoe Warning Worked!

Jeb Bush will not be running for US Senate in 2010 to replace one-term Senator Mel Martinez. I guess that means we can all collect our shoes from the Palmetto Expressway. But remember, we can reassemble the shoes in a matter of minutes. Oh yes, we can.

More seriously, Jeb is collateral damage to the worst President in American history. You will not be able to be elected dog catcher with the last name "Bush" for a generation or two. I don't think Reggie Bush could get elected to be a provost at USC in this environment.

As for the Florida Senate seat, it'll be a top target for Democrats in 2010.

2010 Begins!

I know, the last election of 2008 is today, with the Georgia runoff between Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin. But there's news on the next set of elections too! Don't you just love the perpetual campaign?

And the news is bad for Republicans, to boot. First, Mel Martinez is resigning, setting up an open seat in the newly blue state of Florida.

Florida Sen. Mel Martinez (R) has decided against seeking a second term, a decision he will formalize shortly in the Sunshine State, according to an informed party source.

Martinez's decision was based on a desire for more free time and a less scheduled life, said the source. The first term senator also was an almost certain Democratic target in two years time although those familiar with Martinez's political prospects insisted his strengths in South Florida, coupled with his political base along the I-4 corridor, made his path to reelection possible.

The Democrats' favored candidate, State CFO Alex Sink, begged off the race yesterday. I could totally see Jeb Bush trying to rehabilitate the Bush name by running for this, and he'd be a strong favorite, but it's not a slam-dunk.

In Pennsylvania, the biggest news is not Tweety Bird's destined-to-crash-and-burn Democratic campaign, but the fact that wingnut's wingnut Pat Toomey may take on a primary challenge rematch.

Toomey, the president of the conservative Club for Growth, insisted Specter faces more hurdles than he did four years ago.

"He's significantly more vulnerable now than he was in 2004," Toomey said in an interview.

He argued that Specter's core constituency in the GOP, which he called "liberal and moderate Republicans," have since left the party and will be unable to vote in Pennsylvania's closed Republican primary. That will make it more difficult for Specter to prevail against a conservative opponent, Toomey said.

Toomey is absolutely right. It also means that he would have no shot at winning the general election, since all those moderates left the party thanks to nutballs like him.