Most Dangerous Trouble Spot In The World Update

So Joe Biden, John Kerry and Chuck Hagel are headed to Pakistan to observe Monday's elections. Surely the dictator who suspended the Constitution long enough to throw out the entire judiciary will now ensure that the polls are free of fraud and vote tampering. After all, THREE US Senators are going to monitor a country of 164 million!

The first thing that Biden and Kerry and Hagel might want to do is schedule a meeting with Human Rights Watch:

A prominent U.S.-based human rights group Friday released what it said was a recording of Pakistan's attorney general acknowledging that next week's national elections would be "massively" rigged.

Human Rights Watch said a journalist made the recording during a telephone interview with Attorney General Malik Qayyum when Qayyum took a second call without disconnecting the first, allowing his end of the second conversation to be overheard and recorded.

In the recording, Qayyum, Pakistan's top legal officer, can be heard advising the caller to accept a ticket he is being offered by an unidentified political party for a seat, Human Rights Watch said.

"They will massively rig to get their own people to win," Qayyum said, according to a transcript released by Human Rights Watch. "If you get a ticket from these guys, take it."

I mean, it is physical evidence, and all. And certainly there's motive; the opposition party has vowed to impeach Musharraf if they get into power. Do you really think a dictator would let that happen?

Another thing the Senators should do is schedule their outbound flight now. Because it might be tough to get out of Dodge after the election:

Awan's comments came a day after Musharraf warned his opponents not to immediately claim fraud and stage demonstrations after the vote.

Another opposition party, headed by ex-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, rejected Musharraf's warning, saying it would stage nationwide protests if it believes the election was manipulated.

"We know Musharraf wants to rig the elections," said Sadiq ul-Farooq, a senior member of Sharif's party. "If he did it, we will force him to quit through street protests."

Monday should be fun. If your idea of fun is millions pouring onto the streets in riots and martial law and an unstable nation with a significant Islamist population and nuclear weapons.

Most Dangerous Trouble Spot In The World Update

Tim Johnson and some others at McClatchy Newspapers have been telling a little story over the last week or so about Pakistan, the state of things in the unsteady tribal regions, and the upcoming elections. It's some great in-depth reporting, and it reveals just what a state that country is in.

First of all, this upcoming election is a joke. The government has banned international observers from conducting exit polls of the vote count, in defiance of Bush Administration requests. In most countries, the exit poll is a key tool for observers to determine the adequacy of the vote (but not here; of course, since we have no federal standard, most international observers wouldn't even monitor a national election in the United States). The courts will have no jurisdiction over electoral disputes; instead a handpicked Federal Election Commission will be the ruling body. Of course, there is no real independent judiciary in Pakistan anymore as it is. And the Bush Administration isn't likely to push for one, either.

The Bush administration has signaled that it will continue to tolerate Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's crackdown on his country's judiciary at least until after a Feb. 18 national election.

Calling Musharraf an indispensable ally, U.S. officials have largely declined to criticize his ouster of top judges and said that questions about restoring the courts' independence should be put on hold until after the election.

Pakistani analysts said that muzzling the courts might help the embattled and increasingly unpopular leader remain in power, and administration officials told Congress this week that nothing should be done to press Musharraf on the judiciary until after the election.

"They need to have an independent judiciary, but I can't see them doing it till after the election, with all the players, including the new players," said Assistant Secretary Richard Boucher, the State Department's point man on Pakistan.

Asked if he considered Musharraf indispensable to the United States, Boucher replied, "I do."

This is of course perfectly consistent, since the Administration doesn't have much use or desire for an independent judiciary in this country. Musharraf, in the meantime, is running what amounts to a political campaign to discredit the former Supreme Court chief justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, whose ouster sparked the reformer movement and prefigured the imposition of martial law:

Meanwhile, the vendetta between Musharraf and Chaudhry is intensifying. Aides who accompanied Musharraf on a trip to Europe gave journalists a seven-page dossier that charged that Chaudhry displayed "bizarre behavior" on the bench, demanded luxury cars with police escorts, humiliated underlings, denied a guest the use of a bathroom and submitted dubious medical claims.

Among those medical claims, the dossier said, were charges for "a gadget to test diabetes, contact lens solution, face masks, creams, toothpaste (and) acne lotions."

This is what Musharraf is spending his time with, while in the meantime, the Pakistani factions of the Taliban are growing stronger. They've moved out of the border regions and into Peshawar.

A disparate group of tribal armed militant groups, some of them linked to al Qaida, announced the formation of an alliance last month called The Taliban Movement of Pakistan. The 40-man leadership is from seven tribal agencies and eight bordering districts, underscoring the movement's reach. The group is thought to have 5,000 to 10,000 fighters and is growing steadily as it gains momentum.

U.S. officials are deeply concerned that the insurgency is becoming bolder and expanding faster than had been anticipated, a State Department official said.

"The feeling is that we are not dealing with a terrorist group here, but an insurrectionist movement," said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. "That's an elevation without question from what we've been dealing with."

There are now ties between the leadership of this insurrection and the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. This new leader, Baitullah Mehsud, is apparently consolidating forces and creating a movement in the border areas. There's a bit more here.

Could this be why we suddenly took out yet another #3 of Al Qaeda in Pakistan? (By the way, it's extremely interesting that happened just after Pervez Musharraf appeared to rebuff US appeals for a greater CIA presence in the country. Perhaps Musharraf gave up some intelligence and allowed a drone plane over as a make-good). Is this to send a message to Mehsud as much as trying to stop someone who is accused of promoting attacks on Pakistan's neighbor, Afghanistan?

Of course, we know that Afghanistan is starting to spin out of control, and no, this isn't proof that the Taliban has lost. Usually, when the country becomes a failed state, it kind of means the opposite.

The independent study finds that the Taliban, which two years ago was largely viewed as a defeated movement, has been able to infiltrate and control sizable parts of southern and southeastern Afghanistan, leading to widespread disillusionment among Afghans with the mission.

"The prospect of again losing significant parts of Afghanistan to the forces of Islamic extremists has moved from the improbable to the possible," the study says, warning that Afghanistan could revert to a "failed state."

The report is critical of nearly every governmental and international organization involved in Afghanistan, including the Bush administration, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, calling their efforts inadequate, poorly coordinated and occasionally self-defeating.

So we're losing ground in the entire region, actually, with allies who are both undemocratic and incompetent, and enemies who are gaining ground.

Welcome to foreign policy in the Age of Bush.

Pakistan Update

Before I go all Iowa caucus all the time, I do want to look at the situation in Pakistan, where things are getting so bad that refugees are fleeing to... Afghanistan. Talk about out of the frying pan and into the fire.

The government has quit with the fiction that Benazir Bhutto died from hitting the sunroof of her car, after video evidence emerged to totally contradict that. They even brought in Scotland Yard to help with the investigation (which is still being run out of Pakistan and is not independent). But they did, as expected, delay the election for at least six weeks, a move that angered opposition party leaders.

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — The main opposition parties denounced the government’s decision on Wednesday to postpone parliamentary elections for six weeks after the assassination of the opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, but they said they would abide by the ruling.

The Election Commission set Feb. 18 as the date for the elections, citing the time needed to recover from the violence that followed Ms. Bhutto’s death last week. Nearly 60 people were killed, election offices were damaged and parts of Ms. Bhutto’s home province, Sindh, were paralyzed.

“It is risky,” said one Western diplomat, who would speak only anonymously, following diplomatic protocols. “Anything could happen, because any straw or incident could ignite more violence or reaction against the government.”

Nawaz Sharif has called on President Musharraf to resign and a caretaker government to be installed. And The Washington Post has more about possible street actions that may be taken as a result of this decision. Obviously things could go from bad to worse at any moment. And if this is true, they will:

The day she was assassinated last Thursday, Benazir Bhutto had planned to reveal new evidence alleging the involvement of Pakistan's intelligence agencies in rigging the country's upcoming elections, an aide said Monday.

Bhutto had been due to meet U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., and Rep. Patrick Kennedy, D-R.I., to hand over a report charging that the military Inter-Services Intelligence agency was planning to fix the polls in the favor of President Pervez Musharraf.

Safraz Khan Lashari, a member of the Pakistan People's Party election monitoring unit, said the report was "very sensitive" and that the party wanted to initially share it with trusted American politicians rather than the Bush administration, which is seen here as strongly backing Musharraf.

It's clear that this focus on elections is misplaced. Without an independent judiciary and a free press there is simply too many ways for the Musharraf government to cheat. They don't want a fair election. And the fact that Bhutto felt like she had to hide the information from the Bush Administration because they're not honest brokers is amazingly sad.

The must-read on all of this is from Barnett Rubin.

I called a friend in Lahore this morning. The obstacles are not just that electoral materials (possibly including those prepared for rigging) were destroyed in the rioting. The country's infrastructure is under severe stress. In Lahore there are only 7 hours of electricity a day, and water pressure is also reported to be unreliable (I know those of you in Kabul may not feel their pain). Optic fiber lines were cut in Sindh, blacking out telecommunications for a while. The front page of Dawn online yields the following: There has been massive damage to the country's rail network. Fuel is in short supply, and the shortages are likely to get worse. The stock market and the currency are both crashing. Government ministers are charging "foreign elements" (i.e. India) with organizing the riots, a useful excuse for martial law.

In Pakistan there is a massive outburst of rage against Musharraf and everything associated with his government, including the government's claim that it has evidence that the Pakistani Taliban, led by Baitullah Mahsud, carried out the assassination. I still lean toward the hypothesis that the operation was carried out by organizations connected to al-Qaida. Given the relationship of the Pakistani military to jihadi organizations that by no means absolves the Musharraf regime of responsibility.

But what recent events demonstrate even more clearly is that the Bush administration's policy of relying on a personal relationship with a megalomaniac manipulator like Musharraf to fight al-Qaida has strengthened that organization immeasurably and perhaps fatally damaged the U.S.'s ability to form the coalition it needs to isolate and destroy that organization.

We make the mistake in this country of creating a linear line of opposition, where there are "moderates" and "terrorists" in Pakistan. In that scenario, Musharraf is a "moderate" and therefore on our side. But that is not how he's perceived in the country, and it's frankly offensive that we label every foreign entity based on how we think they perceive us. The "pro-American" forces don't want to work together; indeed, they're competing for power. It's worth reading Rubin's entire piece.

Good Thing That State Of Emergency Has Been Lifted

Since the terrorist threat in Pakistan is obviously in its last throes.

More than 30 people were killed on Friday in a suspected suicide bombing at a mosque in northwest Pakistan, where a former interior minister was offering Muslim Eid festival prayers, police said.

Former interior minister Aftab Ahmed Sherpao, who belonged to President Pervez Musharraf's government, was at the mosque at the time of the attack but it was unclear if he was the target. He said he escaped unharmed but his son was injured.

"More than 30 people have been killed in the blast," Feroz Shah, a senior police official at Charsadda district, in North West Frontier Province, told Reuters. "We still don't have an exact figure."

Militant Islam was never the reason for the imposition of martial law, and nothing has been done to decrease that threat in any meaningful way during that martial law. And in the meantime, while the government lost all credibility inside the population due to the hijacking of any vestige of democracy, they're also dealing with their very own Abu Ghraib:

Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies, apparently trying to avoid acknowledging an elaborate secret detention system, have quietly set free nearly 100 men suspected of links to terrorism, few of whom were charged, human rights groups and lawyers here say.

Those released, they say, are some of the nearly 500 Pakistanis presumed to have disappeared into the hands of the Pakistani intelligence agencies cooperating with Washington’s fight against terrorism since 2001.

No official reason has been given for the releases, but as pressure has mounted to bring the cases into the courts, the government has decided to jettison some suspects and spare itself the embarrassment of having to reveal that people have been held on flimsy evidence in the secret system, its opponents say [...]

In one case, a suspect tied to, but not charged with the 2002 killing of Daniel Pearl, the American journalist, was dumped on a garbage heap, so thin and ill he died 20 days later. He, like one other detainee, was arrested in South Africa several years ago and released in Pakistan this year.

You think that's not driving the militant strain? You think that's not a recruiting tool?

One of the positive steps Congress took before breaking for the holidays was to restrict military aid to Pakistan and condition it to the restoration of democratic institutions. If we can't control our government at home, maybe at least we can stop funding one that's imitating it.

World's Most Dangerous Trouble Spot Update

So over the weekend, Dictator-General Pervez Musharraf lifted the state of emergency in Pakistan, despite continued attacks from Islamists. He took the opportunity to mark up the Constitution to his liking, and permanently swear in handpicked Supreme Court judges, to resist any challenges in the courts. Nevertheless he claimed that this lifting of the state of emergency would pave the way for democracy:

“Today I am feeling very happy that all the promises that I have made to the people, to the country, have been fulfilled,” he said. The removal of the state of emergency restores fundamental rights like the right of assembly and freedom of movement three weeks before parliamentary elections, and it would ensure that elections are free and fair, said the acting law minister, Afzal Haider.

Only Nawaz Sharif, head of the largest opposition party, won't be on the ballot due to a court decision, and if he appealed to the Supreme Court, he would be facing Musharraf-installed judges to restore the right for him to run against Musharraf-picked legislators.

Democracy!

Most Dangerous Trouble Spot In The World Update

So the Perv is vowing to end the state of emergency in a few weeks, bowing to pressure from the US government and the international community. Is the "emergency" as Musharraf described it over? Of course not. There are still violent attacks in the border region, there are still Islamists taking over these small villages. Nothing has changed as a result of the state of emergency. The only "emergency" was that the Pakistani Supreme Court was about to vote against Musharraf on whether or not he was allowed to run for President while being chief of staff of the Army. Now that the Court has been deposed, Musharraf sworn in, a new Army Chief of Staff in power, the emergency has been lifted.

The question is whether or not the opposition will call him on this.

UPDATE: Interesting article about the Pakistani version of "The Daily Show." Seems like Musharraf is aware of the power of mockery.

Most Dangerous Trouble Spot In The World Update

Pervez Musharraf gave up his uniform today, setting the stage to become a civilian President. But if the country is still under martial law, what is the meaning of "civilian President"? And if a handpicked Musharraf loyalist runs the Army, is the government really all that separate?

Meanwhile, opposition leader Nawaz Sharif is back, and he doesn't sound too thrilled with the prospect of serving under Musharraf:

Mr. Sharif, a former prime minister who was tossed out of power by General Musharraf in a 1999 coup, condemned his old nemesis for imposing emergency rule on Nov. 3. He said he would not serve as prime minister under a Musharraf presidency, demanded an end to the state of emergency and called for the reinstatement of fired Supreme Court justices.

Such a forceful stand contrasts in many respects to Mr. Sharif’s own time as prime minister. He is best remembered here and in Washington as the leader who brought the world a nuclear Pakistan, flirted with war with India and forged strong ties with religious conservatives. His tenure was marred by charges of rampant corruption and by confrontations with the courts and the media as well.

Sharif is a more religious leader, in contrast to the secular Benazir Bhutto. But neither of them are publicly agreeing to serve under Musharraf. Behind the scenes and through back channels, they may be fighting one another to make a deal. The idea that you can have a legitimate election with the judiciary in jail, opposition rallies broken up and the Constitution suspended is lunacy. I think both of them are prepared to either grudgingly serve in the government or cry fraud when they lose. Either way, the end result will still leave a fairly powerful opposition on the streets, with Islamists lurking in the background willing to lend a hand.

UPDATE: Funny:

Pervez Musharraf has stepped down as head of the Pakistani army. Now he's merely a civilian dictator.

Most Predictable Court Case Ever

In Pakistan, a challenge to Pervez Musharraf's victory in the Presidential election, on the grounds that it's unconstitutional for him to be a military officer at the same time as being President, was thrown out by Musharraf's new, handpicked Supreme Court, because the lawyers were not present in court.

The lawyers were all under arrest by Musharraf's military.

This dictatorin' is easy!

Most Dangerous Trouble Spot In The World Update

Pervez Musharraf says he'll quit the Army this month but remain as President. Of course, the courts were to rule on whether he was allowed to run for President while being chief of staff of the Army. And he's continuing to arrest opposition leaders and outlaw political rallies, even while he's calling for ELECTIONS. And he's blaming his opponents for the house arrests he's carrying out on them.

In an interview with The Associated Press, he accused former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, currently under house arrest, of fueling political turmoil and rejected Western pressure to quickly lift emergency rule, which he indicated was likely to continue through the January elections.

"All those who are blunt enough to tell me to my face what the reality is, all of them think, yes, it will lead the country to chaos if I do not handle the political environment now with me remaining as the president," he said at his army office.

And more leaders have been arrested.

This is the worst of all possible worlds, with a defiant and unpopular leader alienating every facet of civil society, and a radical Islamist movement allowed to roam free. The elements are all there for revolution.

The Growing Nightmare In Pakistan

Over the weekend, Pervez Musharraf agreed to set elections by January 9, perhaps leading Buah Administration "elections=democracy" officials to nod in agreement and move on to Iran. But this is a meaningless gesture. If Musharraf still has the country under emergency rule, and he hasn't committed to dropping it, I don't see how elections could be fair or free (an election with no Constitution or court system?). And the opposition parties know this, and have vowed to boycott any sham election.

Two of Pakistan’s bigger opposition parties said today they would probably boycott the parliamentary elections due to be held in early January if the president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, persisted in holding the vote while still maintaining emergency rule.

However, the leader of the biggest opposition party, Benazir Bhutto, has not yet said whether she would pull her party, the Pakistan Peoples Party, out of the election.

On Sunday, Ms. Bhutto said General Musharraf’s announcement that elections would go ahead in January was a positive though insufficient step. Today she assumed a slightly tougher tone, suggesting her negotiations with General Musharraf had come to an end.

“We cannot work with anyone who has suspended the Constitution, imposed emergency rule and oppressed the judiciary,” she said. “We are saying ‘no’ to any more talks.”

Bhutto is an opportunist. She'd probably go ahead with elections if she thought they had any import. But it's clear that they would elect nothing more than a figurehead.

This is shaping up to be very much like the Iranian situation in 1978-79; an isolated dictator with little control over anything but the military, against a more and more angry populace. This should scare everyone, as it suggests that the anger against the United States and the anger against Musharraf is merging. It is very familiar.

It takes almost no effort to find people who are angry with Pervez Musharraf on the streets of this bustling city. The Pakistani leader's name comes up quickly in casual conversation, yoked with unprintable adjectives and harsh denunciations of the emergency rule he has imposed.

But dig just a little deeper and another target of resentment surfaces: Musharraf's richest, staunchest and most powerful patron, the United States.

"We blame the U.S. directly for keeping us under the rule of the military," said Arfan Ghani, a 54-year-old professor of architecture. Musharraf, who heads Pakistan's army, is just "another dictator," Ghani told an American reporter, "serving the interests of your country."

That makes an environment ripe for Islamic revolution. Very scary.

Crisis In Pakistan

Benazir Bhutto is under house arrest. With Nawaz Sharif out of the country, she is essentially the head of the pro-democracy movement. And she's been detained, with barbed wire going up around her house and thousands of her supporters arrested. The American reaction has been tepid.

The United States called for the restrictions on Bhutto to be lifted, saying it was "crucial for Pakistan's future that moderate political forces work together to bring Pakistan back on the path to democracy." A government spokesman promised she would be free by Saturday.

Bhutto twice tried to leave in her car on Friday, telling police: "Do not raise hands on women. You are Muslims. This is un-Islamic." They responded by blocking her way with an armored vehicle.

And this is perhaps the most classic reaction.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates, speaking to reporters earlier Friday on his plane en route home from a weeklong visit to Asia, said he was concerned Musharraf's emergency declaration and the protests and arrests that it spawned could affect operations in Afghanistan.

"The concern I have is that the longer the internal problems continue, the more distracted the Pakistani army and security services will be in terms of the internal situation rather than focusing on the terrorist threat in the frontier area," said Gates.

They have to fight our battles for us, don't they understand that?

In fact, the US could shut down this nonsense in a flash. But they may have given the go-ahead that no repercussions would come from imposing martial law, and all this focus on restoring elections (which are apparently reset for some time in the winter) neglects the fact that, if Musharraf doesn't restore democratic institutions like the courts, it will be child's play for him to rig the ballot boxes.

Musharraf's retention of the office of the president only would be a happy outcome for Washington too. The George W Bush administration is keen for him to give Pakistan a veneer of democracy by taking off his uniform, holding elections and renewing the interrupted partnership with Benazir Bhutto (whether Bhutto, facing her own political predicament, would consent for a second time is open to dispute).

Washington would not mind if the subsequent elections are rigged. American diplomats in Pakistan already have information about possible plans to ensure that Nawaz Sharif's faction of the Pakistan Muslim League will be denied victory irrespective of voting outcomes. Benazir's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q - that is, the pro-Musharraf faction in the ruling party) will then be allowed to battle against each other with the government intervening when this is to its advantage, leaving the leaders of these parties to fix the results themselves. For example, the Punjab regional government would ensure that certain constituency results produced enough seats in the national parliament to enable it to secure the prime ministerial position.

The United States has been showering Pakistan with aid for years, most of it in untraceable cash transfers that are supposed to be used for counterterrorism purposes, but relly could be used for anything. We are propping up a dictatorship, and as Joe Biden says, we need a new approach.

Beyond the current crisis lurks a far deeper problem. The relationship between the U.S. and Pakistan is largely transactional -- and this transaction isn't working for either party. From America's perspective, we've spent billions of dollars on a bet that Pakistan's government would take the fight to the Taliban and Al Qaeda while putting the country back on the path to democracy. It has done neither [...]

We've got to move from a transactional relationship -- the exchange of aid for services -- to the normal, functional relationship we enjoy with all of our other military allies and friendly nations. We've got to move from a policy concentrated on one man -- President Musharraf -- to a policy centered on an entire people... the people of Pakistan. Like any major policy shift, to gain long-term benefits we'll have to shoulder short term costs. But given the stakes, those costs are worth it.

Here are the four elements of this new strategy.

First, triple non-security aid, to $1.5 billion annually. For at least a decade. This aid would be unconditioned: it's our pledge to the Pakistani people. Instead of funding military hardware, it would build schools, clinics, and roads.

Second, condition security aid on performance. We should base our security aid on clear results. We're now spending well over $1 billion annually, and it's not clear we're getting our money's worth. I'd spend more if we get better returns -- and less if we don't.

Third, help Pakistan enjoy a "democracy dividend." The first year of democratic rule should bring an additional $1 billion -- above the $1.5 billion non-security aid baseline. And I would tie future non-security aid -- again, above the guaranteed baseline -- to Pakistan's progress in developing democratic institutions and meeting good-governance norms.

Fourth, engage the Pakistani people, not just their rulers. This will involve everything from improved public diplomacy and educational exchanges to high impact projects that actually change people's lives.

Biden also smartly discussed returning to the fight for democracy in Afghanistan and immediately ceasing this nonsense about Iran as bulwarks to moderate Pakistanis that we actually mean what we say. Those, along with a hardline policy on lifting the martial law, using carrots and sticks, are the only way to get back to some equilibrium in this crisis point before it boils over.

UPDATE: Bhutto released, defiant.

Coup II: The Re-Coupening

It looks like the Pakistani people are becoming restless from this attempt to curb their fundamental liberties.

Police fired tear gas and clubbed thousands of lawyers protesting President Gen. Pervez Musharraf's decision to impose emergency rule, as Western allies threatened to review aid to the troubled Muslim nation. Opposition groups put the number of arrests at 3,500, although the government reported half that [...]

Under intense pressure from the United States and other Western allies to hold elections as scheduled in January, Musharraf said Monday he would relinquish control of the military and return the country to "the same track as we were moving" but he gave no indication when the vote would take place.

"I am determined to remove my uniform once we correct these pillars — the judiciary, the executive, and the parliament," Musharraf was quoted by state-run Pakistan Television as telling foreign ambassadors Monday.

"I can assure you there will be harmony ... confidence will come back into the government, into law enforcement agencies and Pakistan will start moving again on the same track as we were moving."

It's quite shocking how brazen this all is, although when you're from a country that has a history of uprisings and coups it's perhaps less so. I would have thought that Musharraf would have used militant attacks as a pretext to seize control and crush dissent. But he's actually been very out in the open about "correcting these pillars" - admitting that this is about bending the judiciary to his will and little else. All of his actions have served to put down the independent judiciary, not the "terrorist threat."

And because this is a very honest rationale Musharraf is making for his dictatorship, anger at his allies in the United States is brewing on the street:

The most common feeling toward the U.S. I have encountered is a kind of anger mixed with disappointment. Pakistanis are angry at the U.S. and consider it hypocritical because it has consistently supported dictatorship in Pakistan. Many are also baffled and furious because they see clearly the complicity of part of the Pakistani security forces with the Taliban on both sides of the border and cannot comprehend U.S. continued support for that same military.

They see a weak reaction by the U.S. to the virtual martial law decreed by General Musharraf. In particular they hear U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates say, "We are reviewing all of our assistance programs, although we are mindful not to do anything that would undermine ongoing counterterrorism efforts." What they hear is, the U.S. will review its support for education and health programs, but it will continue its massive subsidy (an estimated $10 billion per year) to cover the cost of operations by the Pakistan military: the same military that has declared a pseudo-emergency (in reality, martial law), under which protesting lawyers have been beaten and hundreds of non-violent democratic political leaders arrested, while the militants continue their campaigns without hindrance.

And it's also true that, if we didn't outsource so much of the problem with Al Qaeda and the militant tribes in Waziristan to the Pakistanis, we would be less reliant on them and more able to have a strong hand in demanding the return to democratic rule. Not to mention the fact that a stronger and safer Afghanistan, one secured by a military that isn't spread thin in Iraq, wouldn't allow for a staging area inside Pakistan for the Taliban.

Musharraf is hanging on by a thread. The problem, however, is that the pro-democracy reform movements don't have an inspiring amount of leadership at the top, either, making the remote possibility of an Islamist takeover more likely.

Most Dangerous Trouble Spot In The World Update

We're starting to see the first fallout of Perves Musharraf's "second coup" in Pakistan - they're rounding up the dissidents.

Police and soldiers emboldened by state of emergency powers swept up hundreds of activists and opposition members on Sunday, dragged away protesters shouting "Shame on you!", and turned government buildings into barbed-wire compounds.

Gen. Pervez Musharraf's government said parliamentary elections could be delayed up to a year as it tries to stamp out a growing Islamic militant threat — effectively linking two of the greatest concerns of Pakistan's biggest international donors: the United States and Britain.

Increasingly concerned about the unfolding crisis, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Washington was reviewing billions of dollars in aid to its close terrorism-fighting ally. Britain is also examining its assistance.

Yeah, they will be reviewed, before being processed and airmailed directly to the dictator's palace.

Benazir Bhutto, the woman around whom pro-democracy reformers have rallied, penned a statement to CNN.

I have long claimed that the rise of extremism and militancy in Pakistan could not happen without support from elements within the current administration. My return to my country poses a threat to the forces of extremism that have thrived under a dictatorship. They want to stop the restoration of democracy at any price. They have exploited a poor, desperate, and powerless people and allowed extremists the right environment in which to flourish [...]

On my return to Pakistan last month, throngs of people turned out to welcome me back home. The demand to ban grassroots political activity is a suspicious prelude to what could be an overt attempt to rig the upcoming elections. All people who believe in the process of democracy should reject this attempt to undermine public participation in the campaign and set the table for what I believe would simply be a fraudulent election.

Bhutto then asks a series of questions about the assassination attempt on her last month which killed 158. While not outright suggesting that the government rigged the bomb, she does openly wonder why they seem reluctant to solve the crime. I would say that the bombing was a powerful catalyst to enacting the emergency declaration, so there was no reason to investigate it.

Sometimes you don't know how to end a blog post except with a sigh.

Our Pal The Dictator

Pakistan is our ally.

President Gen. Pervez Musharraf suspended Pakistan's constitution and deployed troops in the capital Saturday, declaring that rising Islamic extremism had forced him to take emergency measures. He also replaced the nation's chief justice and blacked out the independent media that refused to support him.

Authorities began rounding up opposition politicians, cut phone lines in Islamabad and took all but state television off air despite calls from Washington and other Western allies not to take authoritarian measures [...]

In a televised address, Musharraf, looking somber and composed and wearing a black tunic rather than his usual military fatigues, said Pakistan was at a "dangerous" juncture.

"The extremism has even spread to Islamabad, and the extremists are taking the writ of the government in their own hands, and even worse they are imposing their obsolete ideas on moderates," he said.

Musharraf's order allows courts to function but suspends some fundamental rights guaranteed by the constitution, including freedom of speech. It also allows authorities to detain people without informing them of the charges.

Musharraf replaced the chief justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry — who had emerged as the main check on his power — before a crucial Supreme Court ruling on his future as president. His emergency order accused some judges of "working at cross purposes with the executive" and "weakening the government's resolve" to fight terrorism.

Sound familiar? Jeez, I think Bush was taking notes.

Let's review the 6 years of Pakistan being a "strong ally in the war on terror," which the Pentagon actually had the gall to reiterate today. Since 9-11 they:

• Reluctantly dropped diplomatic ties with the Taliban

• Signed a peace treaty with Al Qaeda

• Banished the former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif

• Reacted to their top nuclear scientist selling nuclear secrets to rogue states by putting him "under house arrest" in an expansive villa (and they don't even watch him anymore)

• Declared martial law

The spate of terrorist attacks in the NW region, which have spread south to areas around the capital, were a pretext. Musharraf waited until Bhutto was out of the country, and just before the ruling on whether or not he could continue to serve as President, to declare the state of emergency.

You ought not be surprised that Musharraf is close to Vice President Cheney.

I remember Jon Stewart having this thug on his show and giving him tea and yukking it up. That won't be good for posterity.