The Clinton campaign is fighting a battle in the media to ensure that the "Obama is winning" narrative doesn't take hold. That's what this is all about. The numbers pretty clearly show that it's likely Obama will be ahead in pledged delegates by the end of the nominating process. So the Clintons are resorting to spin - and
bad spin, at that.
Strategists said in a conference call with reporters the campaign will go after delegates wherever they can be found -- including in Michigan and Florida. They also said Clinton will likely be within 25 delegates of Obama after voting on March 4, including superdelegates, and they dismissed most states which Obama has won.
“Could we possibly have a nominee who hasn't won any of the significant states -- outside of Illinois?” Chief Strategist Mark Penn said. “That raises some serious questions about Sen. Obama.”
There is something to be said for the adage that you govern the way you campaign. The Clinton campaign is dedicated to an 18-state strategy where you need a triple-bank shot to get lucky on election day, and she'll probably govern that way, too, foregrounding the big states as necessarily more important and doing little to promote Democrats outside of them. The Obama campaign is running hard everywhere, and are most likely to continue Howard Dean's 50-state strategy. I don't think they would ever call a state, or its citizens, "insignificant."
Then there's
this article, which suggests that the Clinton camp knows that they'll be down in pledged delegates but will try to win with superdelegates.
WASHINGTON -- Hillary Clinton will take the Democratic nomination even if she does not win the popular vote, but persuades enough superdelegates to vote for her at the convention, her campaign advisers say.
The New York senator, who lost three primaries Tuesday night, now lags slightly behind her rival, Illinois Senator Barack Obama, in the delegate count. She is even further behind in "pledged'' delegates, those assigned by virtue of primaries and caucuses.
But Clinton will not concede the race to Obama if he wins a greater number of pledged delegates by the end of the primary season, and will count on the 796 elected officials and party bigwigs to put her over the top, if necessary, said Clinton's communications director, Howard Wolfson.
This is a public plea for the superdelegates already in her camp to stay with her, nothing more. As I've said, it is highly unlikely that Democratic activists (and that's who a lot of the superdelegates are) would subvert the will of the people. That's actually not how they operate and not who they are. The 400 or so who haven't endorsed are a bloc less than they are individuals. They will head to the frontrunner like flies to a lamp.
This is nothing more than spin, from a campaign that is reeling.
Josh Green's Atlantic story and
Michelle Cottle's New Republic story are important for context here. The campaign has a lot of freelancing and backbiting, and also made as the signature of their effort the theme of inevitability. Well, this is what you get when things start to fall apart: more backbiting, and spin masquerading as inevitability.
Only in the Obama campaign, the fish ain't biting. While supporters may be up in arms about this, they are running their race, using their metrics, and generally working for the knockout punch. I think it's significant that Obama gave his speech on the economy yesterday at the GM plant in Janesville, hometown of Sen. Russ Feingold. Obama is trying to cut into Clinton's advantages among swing liberals and working-class populists to pave the way to the White House. While the Clinton campaign tries to bully the press.
The "govern how you campaign" theme came to a head for me yesterday with a couple things. One was that revelation in the Green article that Clinton herself was pretty insulated from the problems that were going on inside the campaign, and approving of her now-fired campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle out of loyalty, both characteristics which are trademarks of the current President. And then there's the unseemliness of
this:
Last year, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton took the unusual step of renting out some of her lists. The transaction once again highlights the Clintons' connections to a businessman who now faces questions from the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Reports from Clinton's campaign show that on Dec. 3, it collected payment for renting out three mailing lists, the sale of which netted them $8,225.
But most intriguing of all was the renter of the Clinton list: a list brokerage company that is a subsidiary of one of the data-collection industry titans, Info U.S.A.
Info U.S.A.'s CEO is Vinod Gupta, a close ally of both Clintons. Gupta's empire also includes the Opinion Research Corporation, which conducts the political polling for the television network CNN.
Vin Gupta has a long history of giving and raising campaign money for the Clintons, and gave $1 million for the 2000 Millennium Celebration, a New Year's Party thrown by the Clintons.
I wouldn't want my personal information just handed over to some ally for money. It looks like an in-kind contribution, for one, and it violates privacy laws in place to protect against this kind of thing, at least in theory.
So, to sum up: the Clinton campaign isn't "declaring war" because it would be like Micronesia declaring war on America; their campaign is in a lot of trouble and these are the kind of statements made when that happened; it presages the fact that Clinton doesn't appear to be a very good manager and is willing to step right up to the ethical line; this could still be all over by March 4 no matter what Howard Wolfson or Mark Penn say.
UPDATE:
Ezra:
This demonstrates not only a gross ruthlessness on the part of Clinton's campaign, but an astonishingly cavalier attitude towards the preservation of the progressive coalition. To be willing to blithely rip it to shreds in order to wrest a nomination that's not been fairly earned is not only low, but a demonstration of deeply pernicious priorities -- namely, it's an explicit statement that the campaign puts its own political success above the health of the party and the pursuit of progressive goals, and one can't but help assume that's exactly the attitude they would take towards governance, too.
I agree that they're
trying to be ruthless, but the DNC is a self-preservation outfit and I can't see its members going along with ripping the party asunder when the alternative is to nominate a perfectly good candidate in Barack Obama. The rest I agree with as well.
Labels: 2008, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Mark Penn, Patti Solis Doyle, privacy, superdelegates, Vinod Gupta