Why Are Some People More Authentic Than Others?

Yesterday, 6 protesters were arrested outside UnitedHealth Group headquarters in Minneapolis for blocking the entrance and refusing to leave during a demonstration. Here's some video of the arrests:


Watch Six Arrested For Stopping UnitedHealth "Business-As-Usual" in News  |  View More Free Videos Online at Veoh.com

Dawn Smith, the brain tumor victim who's struggles to get CIGNA to cover her treatments have become national news, is headed to the headquarters of CIGNA CEO Ed Hanway in Philadelphia, to get some answers on why she was denied coverage. She is live-blogging the trip and has some video on her site as well.

Stacie Ritter is also headed to confront Ed Hanway at his mansion:



Health Care For America Now has transformed the main homepages of UnitedHealth, CIGNA and WellPoint into virtual crime scenes, and they are mobilizing people to visit the headquarters of all these corporate bad actors with yellow police tape and declare them actual crime scenes. There are dozens of events in over 60 cities scheduled.

It is true that these events, scattered throughout the country, have been organized by health care advocacy groups. Of course, throughout the month of August, corporate front groups organized around town hall meetings, busing in folks from out of town and preparing them with talking points and rules to disrupt the events. Yet, in the eyes of the traditional media, only one of these two actions are seen as authentic:

For several months, HCAN—a national coalition of religious groups, community organizations, unions, senior citizen groups, health care professionals, and consumer advocates—has been organizing polite demonstrations, rallies, and public forums, trying to put faces on an industry that has spent multiple millions of dollars lobbying against reform, while angry protests at town meetings swelled August’s big national story. On Sept. 22, HCAN sponsored about 150 demonstrations at various insurance company headquarters around the country. The Los Angeles Times did not bother to report about the several hundred demonstrators at WellPoint’s California subsidiary office, located a few blocks from the newspaper’s office. Nor did The Philadelphia Inquirer note those who descended that day on CIGNA, nor The New York Times those outside UnitedHealth in midtown Manhattan.

The HCAN rallies did attract print and broadcast coverage in dozens of cities, but most reporters treated them as isolated local events rather than components of a nationally coordinated protest (its slogan, “Big Insurance: Sick of It”) and a burgeoning grassroots movement [...]

With Congress debating extensive health care reform, and companies like CIGNA, WellPoint, and UnitedHealth major protagonists, the organizers supposed that their protests would dramatize the exorbitant profits of the insurance industry and the imposing compensation they pay top executives (UnitedHealth’s Hemsley made $57,000 per day last year) while millions of Americans go without insurance or bankrupt themselves with medical bills.

HCAN was mistaken.

“At a certain point,” Indianapolis Star senior editor Jenny Green told us, the demonstrators are “not adding to the debate. They’re just one side saying exactly what you’d expect them to say.”

Her colleague, Greg Weaver, the Star’s deputy public service editor for business, maintained that the raucous town meetings of August, dominated by conservative activists shouting down Democratic Congressmembers, were newsworthy because they “are more of a public forum where you have many sides of the debate, whereas at the [HCAN] protest [at WellPoint CEO Bray’s house] you have only one side of the debate.”

“I did not think the protest at [Cigna CEO] Hanway’s house was news,” Philadelphia Inquirer business reporter Jane Von Bergen told us. “It was a staged event. It wasn’t real news. I avoid them. I can’t stand them. They don’t add anything. They don’t teach anything. If they go to his house, we don’t learn anything more about the health care debate.” The protest was “too manufactured,” said Von Bergen. “Just a bunch of people going blah-blah-blah.”

By contrast, said Von Bergen, who covered the rowdy town meeting in August where right-wing activists confronted Sen. Arlen Specter, the news value of that event was “readily apparent.” “It involved public figures”—members of Congress. So political reporters picked up the story.

Isn’t Hanway a public figure? we asked. He’s well known in the business community, she said, but not among the general public—a condition that HCAN is trying to change, but can’t do if the media won’t cover their events.

This is a revealing set of quotes, showing the true orientation of corporate-run media. They are willing to blind themselves to the corporate front groups who organize town hall meetings, but call demonstrations of insurance companies "staged events." This is not the work of a neutral arbiter in the debate; it looks more like one class is being protected while the other is being savaged.

I don't know what the value of street protests are in the digital age. But I certainly know they have little value if they go unreported. Apparently such protests can get coverage, but only if they feature people with tea bags attached to their hats and guns in their side holsters.

"If you spell something wrong, do you really deserve surgery?"

MoveOn enlists liberal Hollyweird for a good cause for once - defending insurance company CEOs from mean talk and angry comments.

Protect Insurance Companies PSA from Will Ferrell

Somewhat paradoxically, MoveOn is holding Sick of Big Insurance rallies in front of multiple insurance company HQs today. Maybe they want to show some solidarity with these poor, henpecked CEOs whose only sin is making a profit off of personal misery. Is that so wrong?

Time To Get In The Streets

MoveOn and several other groups are pushing a September 22 day of action - that's tomorrow - for a series of "Big Insurance: Sick of It" rallies across the country.

Insurance companies make hundreds of billions of dollars every year from denying coverage and denying care, no matter how many people suffer as a result. We'll hear stories of people who have suffered from our broken health insurance system, and we'll demand that the companies stop trying to kill the public health insurance option.

Host your own 'Big Insurance: Sick of It' Rally or sign up for an event near you.

Major rallies are expected in San Francisco, New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Detroit, Portland, Seattle and Los Angeles in front of insurance company HQs, as well as 102 total events across the nation. It's crucial to attend if you can and get the attention focused on the neglected part of the health care debate - that insurance companies have profited for years off denying care, and that the road to meaningful health care reform leads right through them and ending their monopoly on your health.

The 1979 Iranian Revolution Started In 1978

That's all you have to remember when reading about another sparking of protests in Tehran.

Tens of thousands of green-clad protesters chanted and carried banners through the heart of Tehran and other Iranian cities on Friday, defying tear gas and truncheons as they turned large swaths of a government-organized anti-Israel march into the largest opposition rally in two months [...]

Conservatives had warned against using the annual pro-Palestinian march as an excuse for renewed protests against Mr. Ahmadinejad, whose election plunged Iran into its worst internal crisis in three decades.

But the protesters turned out anyway, often walking alongside larger groups of state-sanctioned marchers bearing huge banners denouncing Israel. The protesters even flouted the day’s official message, chanting “No to Gaza and Lebanon, my life is for Iran.” And when government men shouted “death to Israel” through loudspeakers, protesters derisively chanted “death to Russia” in response. Many opposition supporters are angry about Russia’s quick acceptance of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s electoral victory.

Opposition leaders Mir Hussein Moussavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Muhammad Khatami joined the crowds in Tehran, drawing appreciative cheers and chants of support. Later, Basij militia members tried to attack Mr. Khatami and Mr. Karroubi, but defenders fought them back, opposition Web sites reported [...]

There were reports of similar demonstrations and clashes in other cities Friday, including Isfahan, Tabriz, Yazd, and Shiraz, where protesters skirmished with Basij militia men, and freed a group of fellow protesters who were being arrested, opposition Web sites reported.

Meanwhile, Ahmadinejad called the Holocaust a lie, which is basically the closer in his comedy set. It's a bit upsetting that the White House even bothered to respond to this, as Iran is being squeezed internally to support a less belligerent approach to foreign policy. The October negotiations with the West on the nuclear question and other issues have been called a window of opportunity by the top Iranian envoy. Clearly the cracks in the ruling regime's legitimacy is pushing them to accept something broadly agreeable to their increasingly alienated public. I don't know if it will work. But that's driving the new approach. Ahmadinejad's a pleasant comic, but he's the opening act, not the headliner.

If It Isn't On Page A1 Of The Washington Post It Didn't Happen

The spin cycle came out in force over the weekend, as a protest of conservatives on the Washington Mall either attracted 2 million people or 60,000, depending on whether or not you like to lie. This included such delights as a photo from a Promise Keepers rally in 1997 being passed off as one from Saturday.

Despite the falsehoods, the spin did its job, as it landed the teabaggers on Page One, a bit of a contrast to other protest rallies in the recent past.

Behold the media's glaring double standard. Today, the Post puts the "tens of thousands" of Obama-hating tea bagger protesters on A1; makes it the lead story as a matter of fact.

Back in 2002, when more than 100,000 anti-war protesters gathered in the nation's capitol to protest the Bush administration, the same WashPost did its best to ignore them:

The Washington Post put the story not on the front page, but in the Metro section with, as the paper's ombudsman later lamented, "a couple of ho-hum photographs that captured the protest's fringe elements."

This simply proves again that when right-wing (and mostly white) conservatives get angry, it's big news. When liberals get angry, it's just annoying.

I would add that the anti-war protestors that day in Washington were buttressed by millions more around the nation and the world leading up to the invasion of Iraq, but still...nothing.

60 million Americans voted against Barack Obama in 2008. Of that number at least half viscerally hated him, as you could see from the various McCain/Palin rallies during the campaign. a small tranche of those 30 million-plus people got so worked up that they organized and brought out people to a rally in the capital. That's good news for the newfound ease of organizing thanks to the Internet, but not necessarily descriptive of the level of sentiment over Barack Obama in the country. These are the same people who hated him before the election, and they hate him just as much now, despite his Administration not having done very much of anything to inspire such hatred. Nobody's paid more in taxes, a Bush recession headed to depression has stalled. This is the same gang who would have been out on the Mall if Obama had provided $100,000 and a new puppy dog for every family (socialist puppy dogs!).

I like a protests as much as the next guy, which is to say, a little bit as long as the drum circle is kept to a minimum. However, although imperfect, the best indicator of support, and even intensity of support, on the issues facing the country remains polling. And the latest poll on health care has a number of contradictory points, with alternating support for a public option and support for a bill without one, as well as support for bipartisanship with an acknowledgment that Republicans have no interest in being bipartisan. The large mass of people seem to want their government to come up with this change in the health care market, which they can assess after the fact. Beyond that lies confusion. And so privileging the work of a lot of angry white men rather than offering a complete picture of public opinion is really a form of deception from the Washington Post.

...The teabaggers are a classy lot, too.

The Uprising Is Working

I'm seeing a connection between this...

A group of Iranian clerics has issued an anonymous letter calling Iran’s supreme leader a dictator and demanding his removal, the latest and perhaps strongest rhetorical attack on him yet in the country’s post-election turmoil [...]

Last week a group of former lawmakers issued their own letter calling his qualifications into question. A day earlier, a member of the state body empowered to dismiss Ayatollah Khamenei called for an “emergency meeting” to address criticisms.

And this:

Iranian state television first reported that Iran's ambassador to the UN nuclear watchdog agency in Vienna said that Iran is ready to talk with Western powers about its nuclear program without preconditions and based on mutual respect, before reporting that the ambassador said he was quoting from an Iranian letter to the United Nations, wire reports said Tuesday.

Earlier Tuesday, news wires monitoring Iranian state television reported: "(Ambassador Ali Asghar) Soltanieh announced Iran's readiness to take part in any negotiations with the West based on mutual respect." [...]

Iran experts have described Soltanieh as a technocrat being directed in his statements by political leadership in Tehran.

"He is a technocrat not considered to be part of any particular faction," Trita Parsi of the National Iranian American Council told Foreign Policy Tuesday. "Nor is he known to freelance foreign policy, on the contrary. So this statement represents what [Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad and indirectly [Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei want to do."

Iran's political leadership is under internal attack. The protests and riots have sapped at their legitimacy. They know the reformers are tired of their belligerent tactics on the world stage. So to preserve their power, they seek dialogue on the nuclear question with the West.

This probably won't appease the reformers - Mir Hossein Mousavi has created a new grassroots movement and will certainly continue to press at the street level - but the new flexibility on the nuclear issue shows that the ruling class isn't secure in their position.

Ahmadinejad's Inauguration Day

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was sworn in for a second term yesterday amid much protest and even more defiance.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was sworn in for a second term as Iran's president Wednesday while security forces battled hundreds of protesters chanting "Death to the Dictator" in the streets around parliament where the ceremony was held.

Key opposition leaders, moderate lawmakers and all three of Ahmadinejad's election challengers boycotted the swearing in ceremony. State-run Press TV said more than 5,000 security forces were in the streets around parliament and police with sniffer dogs patrolled the area after the opposition called for demonstrations to coincide with the inauguration.

Hundreds of protesters chanted "Death to the Dictator" before security forces broke up a demonstration near parliament, striking people with batons and blasting them with pepper spray, witnesses said.

The opposition has vowed to continue rolling protests. Iran society will never be the same, at least not until the regime either restores its legitimacy (through concessions or official violence), or is driven out.

And then there's the issue of engagement with the West, obviously strained even further by the arrest of three American hikers along the border with Kurdistan, who the Iranians have designated "spies." I do not hold high hopes for engagement, which is probably why the Administration is foregrounding the big stick in their public diplomacy right now:

The Obama administration is talking with allies and Congress about the possibility of imposing an extreme economic sanction against Iran if it fails to respond to President Obama’s offer to negotiate on its nuclear program: cutting off the country’s imports of gasoline and other refined oil products.

The option of acting against companies around the world that supply Iran with 40 percent of its gasoline has been broached with European allies and Israel, officials from those countries said. Legislation that would give Mr. Obama that authority already has 71 sponsors in the Senate and similar legislation is expected to sail through the House.

In a visit to Israel last week, Mr. Obama’s national security adviser, James L. Jones, mentioned the prospect to Israeli officials, they said.

I wonder whether this will actually backfire and punish those in the street who are battling the regime, while the hardliners manage to keep what refined oil can get produced and shipped for themselves and their cronies. A country that is already beating and imprisoning its own people shouldn't have much difficulty causing them more suffering. There's also the question of getting the world to go along with this.

The promise of Iranian engagement has been really wounded by this internal strife.

The Sticking Fingers In Ears And Yelling "La-La-La" Strategy

Both sides have decided to mobilize in member districts throughout August over health care policy. Democrats have settled on banging the hell out of the insurance companies - mostly with the insurance companies' blessing, I'm sure, if the end result is an individual mandate and a forced market for 46 million new policies without a public option to contend with. The Republican strategy is literally to yell at the top of their lungs.

Who needs civility and intelligent discourse when we have confused mobs of far-right activists organized by corporate lobbyists?

The House has been in recess for only a few days, but we're already seeing the results of the right-wing efforts.

This past weekend, Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) was the latest victim of the right's strategy, where protesters followed him and chanted "just say no" to health care.

Texas has the highest uninsured rate in the nation and stands to be among the most to gain from Obama's health care plan. "[N]early 6 million Texans, including the one in six U.S. uninsured children who live there, could get health insurance for the first time if the plan is enacted." [...]

An angry crowd also exploded at Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius. The Philadelphia Daily News reports, "They wore bumper stickers on their foreheads. They carried signs. They shouted insults at notable American figures -- and each other. Loudly."

This isn't just about intimidating lawmakers, it's also about exercising something of a heckler's veto -- if the mob can prevent an honest discussion of health care reform, people who'll benefit from the legislation won't learn what it's in it for them and why the conservative arguments are wrong.

This is the culmination of decades of the devolution of American discourse, through talk radio and cable news, that now results in consideration of the most momumental policy in a generation being reduced to sloganeering and loud chants. The corporate lobbyists funding and directing the right wing know that they can take advantage of chaos and push through lies and distortions much easier. And they figure they can set the wobblier Democratic members to the ground just by shouting at them.

Sadly, they're probably right.

The Malaysia Option

We are several months away from the Obama Administration making a decision on whether to put into motion a practice of preventive detention, so that the government can hold terror suspects captured around the world without charges and despite a paucity of evidence. Despite federal judges finding that the government lacks evidence to imprison suspects in 28 out of 33 habeas corpus hearings on Guantanamo detainees so far, the White House, at least in early reports, wants to set up a system to keep those who they cannot charge but do not want to release. The courts have invalidated the 2006 provision in the Military Commissions Act that would have eliminated the right of habeas corpus for all Guantanamo detainees and so-called "enemy combatants," but the Administration is pondering a system to effectively deny that right anyway and detain suspects at their discretion for indefinite periods.

It's instructive to see examples of a system where a chief executive can lock up whoever they choose indefinitely without charges. Yesterday, citizens in Malaysia struck out in protest:

Police broke up Malaysia's biggest protest in nearly two years Saturday, firing tear gas and chemical-laced water at thousands of opposition supporters demanding an end to a law that allows detention without trial.

Witnesses estimated that as many as 20,000 people took to the streets of Kuala Lumpur, defying government warnings not to participate in the rally against the Internal Security Act, which allows the indefinite imprisonment of people regarded as security threats.

The crackdown could erode support for Prime Minister Najib Razak, who took office in April and has been battling efforts by opposition parties to portray him as a leader who disregards public opinion on issues such as human rights and freedom of expression.

Kuala Lumpur police Chief Mohammed Sabtu Osman said authorities arrested 438 people after about six hours of mayhem in which riot police wielding batons chased protesters down the city's streets, scuffled with them and dragged many into detention trucks.

Malaysia is a constitutional monarchy with a bicameral legislature and a British-style Parliamentary system. The Prime Minister is elected by the people. And yet the Internal Security Act, or ISA, has been around since the 1960s, designed to detain "security threats," no doubt including those detained yesterday after the protests. Incoming Prime Ministers traditionally let several ISA prisoners go when they first assume office, only to capture others soon after. Further, Malaysia has a troubled recent history when it comes to detention:

Human rights lawyers fought off an application by the Malaysian police to remand two youths aged 16 and 13 for allegedly taking part in an August 1 mammoth rally to protest a draconian law – the Internal Security Act – that allows for indefinite detention of civilians without trial.

“The two kids are free now. The application was denied but it was an eye-opener to see the grounds put forward by the police. They were so flimsy,” said Jonson Chong, who together with a team of other lawyers including N Surendran and S D Arunasalam challenged the bid to put the under-aged pair in jail [...]

But perhaps another key reason for the hysteria over the remand of the children was also because of the long string of custodial deaths. Through the years, hundreds of suspects and witnesses have died suspiciously while in the custody of federal agencies such as the police and the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission.

Barely two weeks ago, a 30-year Selangor state political officer Teoh Beng Hock fell to his death from the 14th floor office of the MACC after a marathon investigation. There is widespread belief that his interrogators contributed to his demise and an inquest is now taking place.

“Police ought to be trained in children’s rights. This is so basic. But what happened was that they were only concerned to carry out the bidding of their political masters without respecting the children’s rights. These two are clear cut cases of political retaliation because both parents are known activists,” said Jonson.

Another 16-year old Faizudin Hamzah was less fortunate. Arrested at 11.55pm on Friday night at the central bus station, he was remanded for four days. Police have still not given any reason. The magistrate granted an omnibus remand order without even seeing the boy, who was sleeping when he was detained.

So we have a country which engages in indefinite detention of those described as threats, though that has crept from threats of terrorism and security to "threats" of dissent. They have imprisoned even minors under this statute. And they have beaten, tortured and even murdered people in custody.

Absolutely none of this is in conflict with the recent past in America. The only thing different here is that Malaysia's indefinite detention law has proven durable and lasting, coming up on its 50th anniversary. Once an executive is handed such powers, one after another has sought not to repeal them but to implement them, even after initially freeing some prisoners. Prime Ministers of all political stripes have used the law. And the nature of power being what it is, that would surely be the outcome if Obama decided on a system of preventive detention here.

Last September, the US State Department actually had the nerve to criticize the Malaysian government for implementation of the Internal Security Act to silence dissent:

The United States summoned Friday Malaysia's top envoy in Washington to protest its crackdown on dissent at a time when the opposition was attempting to take over power in Kuala Lumpur [...]

"Peaceful expression of political opinions is a fundamental right and critical to a democracy," a State Department official told AFP.

"The United States believes that the Malaysian government should provide due process and treatment consistent with Malaysian law and international standards," said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"We expect that democratic countries that purport to advocate free expression of political views will not curtail such freedom," the official said following the trio's arrest.

The Obama Administration should probably take a lesson in humility before making a similar statement. And they should look at how indefinite detention has endured in Malaysia and other countries throughout the world, with painful consequences, before trying to implement it here.

Waves Of Dissent

Today was the 40th day since Neda Agha-Soltan was murdered by Iranian militia in Teheran, and in Shiite culture, that date is important for mourning. So thousands of opposition protestors appeared on the streets of Teheran to mark to occasion, and were beaten back by security forces.

Iranian police fired teargas and wielded batons to disperse thousands of anti-government protesters attending a graveside memorial today for victims of a government crackdown in the wake of the disputed presidential election.

Witnesses said plainclothes forces charged at the crowd in the latest unrest following June's disputed presidential election, some of them chanting, "Death to those who are against the supreme leader."

Earlier, hundreds of police surrounded Mir Hossein Mousavi, the defeated reformist candidate, as he and hundreds of his supporters tried to reach the graveside of Neda Soltan, the young woman whose death was captured on video, turning her into a symbol of the protest movement. Witnesses said police forced Mousavi to leave Behesht-e Zahra cemetery, on the capital's southern outskirts.

"Neda is alive, Ahmadinejad is dead," chanted some of those at the ceremony, referring to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who the opposition claims won the election fraudulently.

The police charge came when an ally of Mousavi, Mahdi Karroubi, who was also a candidate in the June 12 election, tried to give a speech. Even after the clash, thousands of supporters continued to visit Soltan's grave.

Eventually, during one of these mourning events, someone else will die. And the protestors will engage in a 40-day cycle of mourning for them. Or some other major event like Rafsanjani speaking at Friday prayers will lead to massive protests. This cycle will not end, I don't think, until the opposition receives a measure of justice. And the hardliners know it. That's why they've intensified their own infighting, with talk of Ahmadinejad being deposed now coming to the fore. This will continue to simmer for at least the rest of the year.

...I think you're going to see mourning over abuse in Iranian prisons get the 40-day cycle as well.

The Curious Case Of Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei

The civil unrest in Iran has sparked some very strange internal power struggles. While the main rift between reformers and hardliners continue, with the reformist former President Mohammad Khatami seeking a referendum on the legitimacy of the government (good idea, the way to deal with a stolen election is ANOTHER election), a Vice Presidential appointment by hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has caused yet another split:

Iran's president, under attack by reformists after his disputed election victory last month, on Tuesday openly defied his most powerful backer, refusing an order by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to dump a newly chosen vice president who is despised by hard-liners for insisting last year that Iranians had no quarrel with the Israeli people.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad finds himself under increasing pressure from Iranian hard-liners who appear eager to reap political rewards after leading a weeks-long crackdown on supporters of opposition figure Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who say vote fraud was responsible for Ahmadinejad's victory [...]

Ahmadinejad surprised many observers by defending the vice president, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, an in-law, in the face of a torrent of criticism from his hard-line allies.

News agencies confirmed Tuesday that Khamenei sent a letter to Ahmadinejad on Monday asking for the removal of Mashaei.

"The president should announce the dismissal, or acceptance of the resignation of Rahim Mashaei right away," said Mohammad Hasan Abu- torabi, the deputy speaker of parliament, according to the semiofficial Iranian Students News Agency.

But Ahmadinejad insisted on state television that Mashaei "will continue his job," adding, "he is very loyal to the Islamic Revolution and a servant of people."

Kevin Drum thinks this is a sign of Khamenei's weakened power, but Juan Cole thinks something's up:

There is something fishy about this story, since if Khamenei wanted Ahmadinejad to do something, why would he do it in a secret letter that only two MPs have seen? [...]

One possibility is that Khamenei is displeased but does not want to weaken Ahmadinejad by publicly overruling him, at this juncture when things are already unstable. That would make sense of his sending a private letter. Maybe it was circulated to other hard liners only when Ahmadinejad declined to heed it?

In the Iranian constitution, Supreme Leader Khamenei can overrule Ahmadinejad on virtually anything, and can dismiss him at will. So if Khamenei really wants Rahim-Masha'i gone, he'll be history.

I could also see this being more about Ahmadinejad trying to gain favor on the moderate side by appointing someone more in line with their less strident perspective. Which would be a sign that the protests are taking their toll.

Hardliners have continued their assault on Ahmadinejad today. This has become a case of palace intrigue rather than a popular movement. But the popular movement is the catalyst. Ahmadinejad knows he can defy the Supreme Leader because his legitimacy has waned.

...Ahmadinejad caved, firing Mashaei. Should be interesting to see the fallout.

Another Wave In Iran

Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani delivered the Friday prayers in Tehran today, Nico Pitney has all the details. Here are some of Rafsanjani's words:

I hope this sermon will pave a way out of this current situation. A situation that can be considered a crisis.

'Unfortunately the opportunity given by the Supreme Leader (5 extra days to submit election fraud evidence) wasn't used properly, but that's over now. People shouldn't be in prison. Let them get back to their families. Our enemies are laughing at us (b/c we have put our people in prison). Don't limit the media if they operate within the law.'

'We are now past the stage where the Guardian Council could have restored the peoples trust. We must be able to tolerate one another. We must compensate the families that have been harmed. We must let the press be free, we should refrain from intimidation. We are all one family. We (he must be referring to the opposition) have been involved in government for 30 years.'

'Which ever of those elements of our governance (Islamic or Republic) is not respected, then we have failed our revolution. Towards the end of the election campaign, some people were abusing the system, using the national television and radio... [speech in interrupted by jeers]... The majority of the people are suspicious of the election. Today is a bitter day. It is a bitter time. Everyone is losing. We need unity. We need unity more than ever today, given the numerous threats facing our nation.'

'You all know me, i do not and never do take sides. But my opinion is that we must find a path of unity. My solution: the assembly of experts has been consulted and we conclude that the trust of the people must be restored. This must be our priority. Everyone is within the framework of the law. We must proceed within the framework of the law. We should follow the legal paths. Restoring the peoples trust will not happen over night. Everyone should be able to say their words. IRIB and radio should give everyone a chance.'

So he admitted the doubt in the election and called for an end to repression, the release of political prisoners, etc. Basiji militia responded by dispersing the thousands in the crowd with batons and tear gas. There are reports that the Basiji had knives and stabbed several people around Tehran University.

Take a look at this crowd and tell me if you think this will end anytime soon. The regime has lost the trust of too many people. They can only hold out for so long.

Rafsanjani's key line? "The Imam [Khomeini] would always quote the Prophet [Muhammad] who would say to Ali [Muhammad's successor]: leave the people if they do not want you."

The Long Uprising

After days of silence and a belief that the struggle had moved from the streets into the clerisy, citizens in Iran returned to protest on the 10th anniversary of the shutting of a reformist newspaper at Tehran University.

Iranian police have fired tear gas at hundreds of demonstrators who defied government warnings that any fresh attempt at protests would be "smashed".

The marchers were heading towards Tehran University to commemorate the 10th anniversary of student unrest.

All gatherings have been banned in a crackdown on mass protests that erupted after the disputed election of 12 June.

The BBC's Jon Leyne says the opposition is trying to put momentum back into the campaign against the vote result.

Our correspondent says there were also a number of smaller demonstrations in major provincial cities.

Nico Pitney has the latest from today, including this truly insane bit of irony:

9:35 AM ET -- Iran criticizes Italy's suppression of protesters. "Iran summons the Italian Ambassador to Tehran Alberto Bradanini in protest against the violent suppression of anti-G8 protesters. Bradanini was summoned to the Iranian Foreign Ministry on Friday to hear Tehran's concerns about the 'violent suppression of justice-seeking protesters by the Italian police.'" No comment.

The 1979 revolution started in 1978. Iranians have long memories and will simply wait out the ruling regime while chipping away at their legitimacy. This story has only begun.

Meanwhile, the installation of Ali Khamenei's son as head of the militia in Iran just shows the retrenchment of power and the subtle moves into dictatorship. In the end, this will not help Khamenei keep power.

Fighting Back

The structure of California government makes rational solutions impossible. But the people who bear the brunt of the pain from a structure wired to drown government in the bathtub have an option. They can stand their ground and refuse to be moved.

And so it begins. As Anthony Wright is tweeting, a group of disabled activists have taken up positions in the Capitol building and are refusing to leave until the health and human services cuts are reconsidered:

Wheelchairs blocking the Governor's office for the last two hours over the budget cuts.. CHP threatens arrest, they say they are prepared...

Over 100 folks protesting cuts in the hall outside Governor Schwarzenegger's office. Gov is at Mason's having lunch... maybe Jacuzzi later?

CHP threatens not just arrest-and-release, but taking disabled protestors to county jail. They say they rather be in jail than nursing home.

Outside Gov's office... Several Dem legislators came down to talk to/cheer on the disabled protestors: Cedillo, Perez, Beall, Skinner, etc

Budget protesters call out "hold the line" when someone tries to pass. The wheelchairs effectively stop any traffic in hallway.

Bad budget boon for Blimpie's: Food arrives for protestors with disabilities, as thet settle in for the long haul in front of Gov's office...

UPDATE: The protest organizers, the "People's Day of Reckoning Coalition" (an offshoot of the IHSS Coalition) have explained their actions to the media:

Caregivers and people with disabilities are furious that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is asking for more cuts to California's in-home support services.

About 100 protesters said they successfully blocked the entrance to the governor's office Tuesday. The People's Day of Reckoning Coalition organized the protest.

The coalition sent a letter to Schwarzenegger in June, asking him to come up with a budget solution that includes new sources of income and not just cuts to services.

"We are calling for a budget solution that is based upon shared responsibility and shared sacrifice -- not a solution that falls squarely upon on the shoulders of children, people with disabilities, elders, the chronically ill, the unemployed and the impoverished," the letter said.

The People's Day of Reckoning Coalition represents human services, health care, community improvement and educational interest....

John Campbell, a caregiver, said claims of fraud are exaggerated, calling the governor's remarks "just a bit of political theater."

The California Highway Patrol cited about a dozen protestors. They'll be back, to coin a phrase.

The long story of Governor Stogie and In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS) is here. The short version is that Arnold up and decided, after months of budget negotiations, that there was massive fraud in this program (there isn't), which allows the elderly, disabled and blind to receive in-home care rather than being consigned to a nursing home, and he demanded that anti-fraud provisions immediately get adopted as part of a budget deal, adding a massive, complex policy shift 24 hours before the budget deadline. There's more about how ridiculous this all is at the link.

What's important here is that those with a stake in Governor Stogie's ruthless cuts - the people who actually feel the effects - have had enough. The structure makes decent solutions impossible, but the only way to fix that structure starts with activists like this, literally blocking the way to right-wing shock doctrine tactics.

Rafsanjani Shows His Cards

It seemed that Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was cutting bait. A member of the establishment, he was not willing to stick his neck out for the reformers, and seeing the crackdown in Iran, was content to work inside the system rather than openly commit to revolution. And then...

Reporting from Beirut -- A day after commanders of the Revolutionary Guard warned there was no middle ground in the dispute over the reelection of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the political party of one of Iran's most powerful clerics Monday defiantly issued a statement dismissing the vote.

The statement by the Kargozaran Sazandegi, or Executives of Construction Party, all but cleared away weeks of ambiguity about the stance of the powerful cleric Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

The cleric, who heads two government councils that oversee the supreme leader and mediate disputes between branches, openly backed Mir-Hossein Mousavi. But he has not spoken definitively about the election since the June 12 vote, which was validated after a partial recount by the powerful Guardian Council.

"We declare that the result is unacceptable due to the unhealthy voting process, massive electoral fraud and the siding of the majority of the Guardian Council with a specific candidate," said the statement issued by the party.

That's a major statement of support, unprecedented from Rafsanjani since the election. It shows that the reform movement will not go away and doesn't mind a bit of boldness.

Opposition leaders are seeking the release of all political prisoners. Ali Khamenei is retrenching and blaming outside enemies. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will head to television tonight with a national address. There are large demonstrations scheduled Thursday.

This isn't over.

The Long War In Iran

We've hit the attrition stage in the Iranian election uprising. The protests have become more sporadic, but can the regime risk isolation from the rest of the world? Mir Hossein Mousavi wants to form a new political party dedicated to curbing the power of the mullahs and promoting democratic reform, but can he stay out of jail? The regime has been able to put down protests to this point, but could they possibly stop a general strike? And how will the statements of the Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qom affect the outcome?

An important group of religious leaders in Iran called the disputed presidential election and the new government illegitimate on Saturday, an act of defiance against the country’s supreme leader and the most public sign of a major split in the country’s clerical establishment.

A statement by the group, the Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qum, represents a significant, if so far symbolic, setback for the government and especially the authority of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose word is supposed to be final. The government has tried to paint the opposition and its top presidential candidate, Mir Hussein Moussavi, as criminals and traitors, a strategy that now becomes more difficult.

“This crack in the clerical establishment, and the fact they are siding with the people and Moussavi, in my view is the most historic crack in the 30 years of the Islamic republic,” said Abbas Milani, director of the Iranian Studies Program at Stanford University. “Remember, they are going against an election verified and sanctified by Khamenei.”

This dovetails with Mousavi's release of documents detailing the fraud at the polls, including the printing of millions of extra ballots before the vote; as well as past statements from clerics that many Iranians are "unconvinced" about the poll results. It chips away at the legitimacy of the Supreme Leader, and even in dictatorial societies, you need legitimacy.

It's interesting that, in the midst of an internal crisis, Ahmadinejad wants to hold talks with President Obama, perhaps to buttress his own standing among his people. In this war of attrition, who would have thought that sitting at a table with an American President would aid an Iranian one in crisis?

A Win For Repression In Iran

The Iranian protests are, it's fair to say, at a low ebb. The media has largely moved on, and the lack of bearing witness has emboldened the ruling regime to crack down further against demonstrations. There's even a report that some Mousavi supporters were hanged in the city of Mashhad. Worst, leading cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, thought to be controlling the protests behind the scenes, is now deferring to the Supreme Leader:

Rafsanjani referred to the recent incidents after the results of the presidential elections, saying: "The incidents were the results of complicated plots by obscure sources with the aim of creating separation and differences between the people and the system. And with the aim of making the people distrust the Islamic system."

He said Ayatollah Khamene'i's expedience in extending the deadline by the Guardian Council for a better study of the issues and providing convincing explanations and clearing any doubts was a very valuable measure. He added: "In my opinion, the recent order by the leadership was one of the very valuable decisions he made. That is he asked the Guardian Council to extend the legal time, which was over, to study the complaints. And a group was appointed to help the Guardian Council with this regard."

Rafsanjani said: "We should all make a step with cooperation and solidarity to remove the obstacles and solve the problems." He also said: "We should always end the election results with solidarity. If every election would result in discord - we have an election once a year - and there would be hatred and fighting, then there will be nothing left."

Rafsanjani, a billionaire and a member of the establishment, has gamed this out, presumably, and realized that the reformers could not currently win. So he's backing off. Mir Hossein Mousavi is not, and he's probably in line for jail time shortly. The regime is too repressive and too in control to really radically break through right now. It took the 1979 revolution a year or more of planning, so this entire situation is in the early stages. But the ruling regime has clearly won the first battle.

Repression and the Long Game In Iran

Iranian paramilitary and security forces broke up another peaceful protest in Iran yesterday, reportedly using tear gas and clubs. The Guardian Council, which oversees the elections in Iran, certified the results today, making Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the winner and setting off more scattered protests. And many are asserting that the events amount to a military coup by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.



Clearly, there are competing loci of power. The ruling regime seems to be maintaining control through the IRGC and the Basiji and asserting a much greater role for them - close to a military dictatorship - while the opposition is trying to leverage the old clerisy that came to power in the 1979 Revolution. In the short run, those with the guns (as Fareed Zakaria says) are likely to win out. You can have all the defiance of women fighting for their rights, and all the admiration from throughout the Arab world, but ultimately, repressive states can hold power in the short term if they control the communications apparatus and deploy the security apparatus. Which is how Iran holds power today, and we're starting to see a consolidation of that control.

With the opposition visibly weakening in Iran amid a government crackdown, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his supporters have begun to use his disputed victory in this month's election to toughen the nation's stance internationally and to consolidate control internally.

In recent days, they have vilified President Obama for what they call his "interventionist policies," have said they are ready to put opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi's advisers on trial and have threatened to execute some of the Mousavi supporters who took to the streets to protest the election result [...]

The actions reflect the growing power of a small coterie of hard-line clerics and Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders, Iranian analysts say. Revolutionary Guard members, in particular, have proved instrumental to the authorities since the June 12 election, and analysts say their clout is bound to increase as the conflict drags on.

The emerging power dynamics leave Mousavi with tough choices. Confronted with increasing political pressure over what supporters of the government say is his leading role in orchestrating riots, he can either acknowledge his defeat and be embraced by his enemies or continue to fight over the election result and face imprisonment.

"Everything now depends on Mousavi," said Amir Mohebbian, a political analyst. "If he decreases the tension, politicians can manage this. If he increases pressure, the influence of the military and security forces will grow."

I don't know if that analysis is quite right. Mousavi's only ally is time. The cycles of mourning dictate that discontent and unrest will continue to have outlets into the future, and the full face of repression has been made clear to too many people for it to credibly turn back. While the regime has the upper hand in the short term, Mousavi - and actually, the demonstrators, who have driven this process more than he has - can allow the anger to simmer and use targeted, timely actions to continue that boiling. The crisis in Iran is one of legitimacy, and using clubs and tear gas doesn't exactly put that genie back in the bottle. Repressive societies can only keep control for so long.

Mousavi's Long Game

Mir Hossein Mousavi has not given up the fight in Iran.

Iran protest leader Mir Hossein Mousavi says he holds those behind alleged "rigged" elections responsible for bloodshed during recent protests.

In a defiant statement on his website, he called for future protests to be in a way which would not "create tension."

He complained of "complete" restrictions on his access to people and a crackdown on his media group.

A BBC correspondent in Tehran says the statement is a direct challenge to Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

It's important to recognize that the 1979 Iranian revolution began in 1978. And Mousavi was among the revolutionaries who brought that about. He, and Rafsanjani and some of the other reformists, have played the long game before.

Meanwhile, the regime continued their crackdown yesterday, detaining hundreds of protestors, including possible Mousavi's wife. And Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, silent in this uprising for the most part, lashed out at President Obama and compared him to George Bush for daring to question his authority or legitimacy.

As usual, Nico Pitney has the best coverage.

Either Over, Or Starting. Crack Analysis!

The ruling regime in Iran has given their blessing to the June 12 election, and are now planning to swear in Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for another term by August. They've arrested a good portion of the leadership of the street protests, and even opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi is reportedly under a 24-hour guard and possibly house arrest. Tehran has been quieter in the past couple days in the midst of a repressive crackdown. The regime has restored order.

At least that's one reading of recent events. The other reading is that a quiet coup is in the works, as Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has control of enough members of the Assembly of Experts to oust Khamenei and call for a new election. This sense that Khamenei has lost his legitimacy among the political establishment is only bolstered by the appearance of clerics in the anti-government protests. Add to that the cycle of mourning for those who have lost their lives on the streets, which will restart the protests in waves, and the inspiring defiance of women - "When they want to hit me, I say hit!" - which really chips away at the moral authority of the regime, and you have the alternative reading that the battle for power in Iran has only begun.

Meanwhile, almost as interesting as the violence and protest in Iran is the overall effect on Iraq, where America still has 140,000 soldiers. The Shi'a clerics in the holy city of Najaf, the spiritual home of the faith, have remained silent. Iraqi leaders have expressed worry at the instability that could easily spill over the 800-mile border.

Iraqi officials say it is impossible to predict how -- and to what extent -- the unrest in Tehran will affect their country.

In interviews, several politicians said they hope the crisis will make it harder for Iran's government to meddle in Iraqi affairs in coming months. Iraq is gearing up for a national election and is asserting more control over security as U.S. troops continue to draw down.

"All their energy is diverted to how to deal with the situation," Kurdish lawmaker Tanya Gilly said. "I think this is keeping them busy with their own affairs, rather than getting involved with other people's affairs. Maybe we'll have some quiet."

A senior Shiite leader from Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Dawa party said he was concerned because Iran has a history of fueling conflicts abroad to divert attention from its domestic problems.

"Iranian influence in Iraq has many faces," said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation.

Iraq has enough violence and sectarian struggle of their own to contend with, but this adds a layer of worry, for unrest in Iran can easily destabilize a region where America already fights two other wars.