Transition Report Card

I think even the most jaded observer can admit that Barack Obama is running an almost flawless transition. And it has engendered significant public support. (The comparison to the current guy in charge is probably helping a bit as well.)

The question on the minds of progressives is whether or not he's going to use this political capital for good or evil, so to speak. I think there are a lot of positive signs out there, with respect to policy if not his cabinet appointments. On health care Obama has assembled a team committed to getting something substantial done, with the know-how and contacts on Capitol Hill to do so. On the economic crisis he has consistently talked about jobs programs and green stimulus packages and a clean energy future with massive infrastructure building, and now he's inviting state governors into the process, suggesting that badly needed relief for state and local governments is on the table. Today he responded to early views on the bailout by arguing that help for homeowners is still badly needed, as evidenced by the projection of a doubling in delinquent mortgages over the next year. On foreign policy, Obama is calling back all political ambassadors from their posts in a powerful signal that the Age of Bush is over, and he's meeting with retired generals today to discuss the need for a clean break with Bush's "interrogation, detention and rendition policies."

It's not all good news - Obama is singaling that he will not pursue a windfall profits tax on oil companies, and likewise may delay implementing a rollback of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. I agree with Sirota on this:

...it seems like the Obama team is buying into the right-wing frame that raising any taxes - even those on the richest citizens and wealthiest corporations - is bad for the economy. Of course, that frame is debunked by history. And while sure, it's OK to rack up deficits so as to spend our way out of the economic crisis, it's sorta silly to ignore the tax moves that could be implemented to limit those deficits where possible.

Oh, and one last thing - if oil prices are down and oil industry profits are truly down, what's the harm in passing a windfall profits tax? Even if you buy the right-wing nonsense about a windfall profits tax "hurting the industry" or "hurting the economy" when it is applied, if there really are no windfall profits to tax, then it won't be applied.

At some point we are going to need revenue to pay for some of this stuff, and we shouldn't be bluffed off of it and believe the false rhetoric that tax cuts pay for themselves.

There is another area where the Obama team has cleared up some confusion, however: they remain firmly committed to the Employee Free Choice Act.

An aide to Barack Obama reaffirmed the President-elect's support for the labor movement's chief legislative priority in a one-word statement issued to the Huffington Post on late Tuesday.

Asked if Obama's support for the Employee Free Choice Act remained as strong as his public proclamations suggested on the campaign trail, transition spokesman Dan Pfeiffer responded, succinctly, "Yes."

This is good news, but on this front, I sincerely hope he's ready for a hell of a fight. Republicans will be united in their opposition to this measure - because they know it's a progressive feedback loop, as Chris Bowers calls it, which will increase union membership, the amount of money unions can spend on progressive priorities, and the amount of union workers who will vote Democratic. It indeed will go a long way toward burying the GOP for decades, although I'm not sure they need any help with that.

So can the GOP block it? When it came up for a vote earlier this year, only Arlen Specter voted for cloture. Whether he would vote for cloture again depends on whether he's more afraid of his 2010 re-election or a right-wing challenge in a primary. So far, it looks like it's the latter, as he's backtracking on his support. Most other Republicans have said publicly they're against any changes to labor law. Which means Al Franken's election is absolutely crucial to getting this passed (and Franken's people now say he's up by 22 votes), as well as not losing any Democrats. Mark Pryor is already wavering, for example.

But when I interviewed Sen. Pryor last week on my television program, gone was the vitriol, which had angered so many. Instead, Pryor mollified his position. When asked if he would again line up as a co-sponsor of the legislation, he indicated he wouldn't.

In fact, he attempted to alleviate concerns that the bill would be on the fast track that union leaders had hoped for in the new Congress. He predicted that a President Obama wouldn't push the measure in the first six months of his administration and that he might wait until 2010 to bring it up.

"That bill has really never had the chance to go through committee, be amended and have floor debate ... in the Senate," he cautioned. As a result of that process, he predicted that the bill would change in committee hearings and that any Senate bill would look much different than the House bill.

Sen. Pryor's preference is now to find common ground between business and Labor. He said he'd met with both groups and, without providing many details, he added that he now supports amendments aimed at bridging the wide gap between the two.

I would say that at this moment, it doesn't happen, sadly. At least not in its current form. Business and Republicans are going to make a goal-line stand on this one. Our hope is not that Obama just announces his support but actually works for passage with individual lawmakers. Also, this is one where Sen. Reid has to make the Republicans really filibuster - sit them down in the well of the Senate and let them talk until they're blue in the face and have this play out across the country.

Overall, I'm positive on Obama's performance so far, but he has so much to contend with that it's going to be a tough first year.

We're Still Talking About The Gas Tax?

I can't believe this panderrific gas tax holiday is still being discussed in serious circles. Suspending the gas tax would crush the already hobbled construction industry and do next to nothing for consumers. Well, maybe I can believe it, because Hillary Clinton is being an opportunist to the extreme, suggesting a combination of gas tax holiday and windfall profit tax that would probably put (a) the same amount of money in the federal highway fund, (b) the same amount of money in the pockets of oil companies as they pass the tax on to consumers, and (c) the same amount of money paid for by consumers at the pump. In other words, a whole lot of legislation signifying NOTHING. Except making a few voters in Indiana feel good.

We need to massively stop oil consumption if we are to reach any reasonable goals on global warming and stimulate the economy through green energy technology. Suspending the gas tax is a diametric opposition to those goals, and massively stupid besides.

UPDATE: You know that gas is going to be incredibly pricey for the rest of our lifetimes, and without diversifying sources of fuel and lowering demand there's nothing we can do about it, right? Also, you know this, yes?

OPEC’s 13 members plan to spend $150 billion to expand their capacity by five million barrels a day by 2012. But OPEC will need to pump 60 million barrels a day by 2030, up from around 36 million barrels a day today, to meet the projected growth in demand. Analysts say that without Iran and Iraq — where nearly 30 years of wars and sanctions have crippled oil production — reaching that level will be impossible.

I don't have to pull out my "No war for oil" sticker, do I?

UPDATE II: Paul Krugman, who is scrupulous and honest no matter what people have said about his "vendetta" for Obama, stays true to his scruples and explains why Clinton's proposal is completely pointless and why Obama should be credited for keeping his strong stance against this.