Econ 101

The Tax Policy Center has a snapshot of the McCain and Obama tax policies, and it's right in line with other estimates, although their language is kind of loaded (1.5% is "significant" but 9.5% is not?)

The Obama plan would reduce taxes for low- and moderate-income families, but raise them significantly for high-bracket taxpayers. By 2012, middle-income taxpayers would see their after-tax income rise by about 5 percent, or nearly $2,200 annually. Those in the top 1 percent would face a $19,000, or 1.5 percent, reduction in after-tax income.

McCain would lift after-tax incomes an average of about 3 percent, or $1,400 annually, for middle-income taxpayers by 2012. But, in sharp contrast to Obama, he would cut taxes for those in the top 1% by more than $125,000, raising their after-tax income an average 9.5 percent [...]

In the July 23 update of its analysis, TPC added a preliminary estimate of the candidates’ health care proposals. Because the campaigns did not provide complete plans, TPC assumed certain details. We conclude that the McCain plan, which would replace the current exclusion for employer-paid premiums with a refundable income tax credit of up to $5000 for anyone
purchasing of health insurance and make other changes to the healthcare system, would increase the deficit by $1.3 trillion over 10 years and modestly trim the number of uninsured. The Obama plan, which would make relatively low-cost insurance available to everyone through non-group pools and subsidize premiums for low- and moderate-income households, would cost $1.6 trillion, but would also cover virtually all children and many currently uninsured adults.

When they say "modestly," they mean pretty much not at all (5% of the uninsured would get coverage).

Of course, almost nobody reads policy white papers. A few more of them read the morning newspaper, and Obama delivered a good summary of his position on Social Security in one, the New Hampshire Union-Leader:

IN THIS country, we have always believed that a lifetime of hard work and honest living should be rewarded with a secure and dignified retirement -- and Social Security is the cornerstone of that social compact. Last week, as we celebrated its anniversary, we reaffirmed our commitment to ensuring that Social Security is a safety net that today's seniors and future generations of Americans can count on [...]

We all know the system isn't perfect -- but it isn't broken. The underlying system is sound and the actual problem, a projected cash shortfall over the next 75 years, is relatively small and can be readily solved. For starters, that means strengthening the program over the long-term by returning to basic fiscal responsibility, so we're not borrowing billions from the Social Security Trust Fund.

But protecting Social Security also means opposing efforts to privatize Social Security, as I did when President Bush proposed risky private accounts a few years ago. Privatization is wrong. It tears at the very fabric of Social Security -- the idea of mutual responsibility -- by subjecting a secure retirement to the whims of the market. The Bush privatization plan that Sen. McCain now embraces would tell 39,000 New Hampshire residents that they're on their own, putting them at risk of falling into poverty and costing each of them more than $235,000 over their lifetimes. That's not what this country is about.

Very good, but not everybody reads the paper. There are media soundbites that kind of swim into the atmosphere that get tossed into the culture stew, like McCain's definition of "rich," (do check out the graph at that link) which Obama picked up on yesterday:

“Which I guess if you’re making $3 million a year, you're middle class,” said Obama, admitting that maybe McCain was joking. But that's reflected in his policies,” Obama continued, “where for people making more than $2.5 million, he's giving folks a $500,000 tax break. And so this is a fundamental difference in this election.”

Great. Whether people pick up on this or not will play out over the next few days. (Tying this to McCain's own fabulous life wouldn't hurt, either.

The basic problem here is that far too many Americans are not disposed to learning about policies, positions, and records of the candidates, and the traditional media is extremely hostile to providing that knowldege. The findings of this poll scare the crap out of me:

Middle-class Americans do know what policies they would like to see enacted. Despite media depictions of a sharp red and blue divide, the nation’s middle class displays broad consensus on a range of public policies aimed at easing their economic squeeze: they support a universal national health insurance plan, requiring employers to provide paid family and medical leave, making it easier for employees to join labor unions and allowing bankruptcy judges to change mortgage payments to keep homes out of foreclosure. A majority of middle-class adults – whether they are Democrats, Republicans, or independents and whether they are supporters of John McCain or Barack Obama for President – believe that these policies represent good ideas for the country. Regardless of party affiliation or presidential preference, these Fearful Families think largely alike.

Yet there is a profound disconnect between the nation’s legislators and their middle-class constituents. (emphasis mine) While two-thirds of respondents say they try to follow what Congress is doing to address their needs at least somewhat closely, most cannot name a single law passed by Congress over the last two years that has benefited their household. Asked about specific pieces of legislation, middle-class adults have a clear sense of what they support or oppose, but generally do not know how their congressional representatives voted on these issues.

Three out of four middle-class adults say they only receive communications from their member of Congress at election time – if they hear from them at all. Middle-class adults have an overwhelmingly negative perception of the job Congress is doing to represent the interests of Fearful Families like their own.

Frightening, to say the very least. But this can be overcome at the Presidential level with the kind of massive ground targeting campaign that the Obama campaign has initiated. That will ultimately be the story of this election, and I plan to begin telling it in the coming days.